Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Jacob]

This is just me and I've no expertise in this, but those seem to me to be the likely possibilities - and I don't see either working well for Putin or the Russian regime. I don't think this is a popular war and I can't see a way he can turn it into one. It looks likely that Russia will suffer quite a lot of casualties regardless and it's just if he is also willing to commit absolutely heinous crimes against a "sibling people". I think hubris and a catastrophically wrong reading of Ukraine are big factors now - I think they expected collapse, chaos and that all of Ukraine was basically a, in Putin's phrase, "colony run by a puppet regime" with no legitimacy.

Yeah.

That was one of the things I had weighing against an invasion (and similarly have weighing against a PRC attack on Taiwan). If Putin has a bad war, that could be the biggest threat to maintaining his grip on power.

How does he get out of this without egg on his face (and without obvious blood on his hands in a way that makes him seem not like a strong man, but like a fratricidal monster)?

[DGuller]

I think it will do more damage to the spirit of Russia and Russians than to Ukraine and Ukrainians, even if Ukrainians are the ones who are massacred.

I'm not as optimistic about the conscience of Russian citizens as you are.  Judging by what I see on the Internet from users highly unlikely to be Kremlinbots, a lot of Russians will see whatever happens to Ukrainians as a just retribution for "what they were doing in Donbass for 8 years" and for embracing Nazism.  Russians are not the sort to wallow in "are we the baddies?" sort of introspection.

[Sheilbh]

A better map of know fighting?

This from Nexta is one I've seen many people share - from my understanding the Russian forces on the western side of the Dnieper have made it to Kyiv, not sure about the eastern side but Zelensky mentioned Chernihiv in his speech tonight so they've not yet fallen:


It really strikes home how crucial Crimea has been.

[Jacob]

I'm not as optimistic about the conscience of Russian citizens as you are.  Judging by what I see on the Internet from users highly unlikely to be Kremlinbots, a lot of Russians will see whatever happens to Ukrainians as a just retribution for "what they were doing in Donbass for 8 years" and for embracing Nazism.  Russians are not the sort to wallow in "are we the baddies?" sort of introspection.

I could be wrong.

I wouldn't put too much store on what's on the internet, though. We'll see. Or rather hopefully we won't.

[Admiral Yi]

That map is pretty heartening.  Only real penetration is through Sumy to the besieged Nonamograd.

Although I'd like to know how there can still be a Ukrainian defenseive postion in Sumy but the Russian red arrow has moved past it.

Whatever happened to The Transneistr Republic?  Did they give up?

[Razgovory]

Is this really the right thread for stalking posters with bizarre vendettas?

I wouldn't have thought so, but I do know where you live.

[Berkut]

I think what you are saying is exactly this.

If your response to "We should shut off RT" is "But then they will...." then you are doing exactly what I am talking about. Letting the fear of what THEY will do dictate our choices.

If shutting off RT is not that useful, then don't do it because it is not that useful.

Because Western media in Russia is there, and will be there, exactly as long as Putin and his administration thinks the cost of them being there is not greater then the cost of kicking them out. The moment they decide to boot them, they will be gone no matter what happens with RT.

They get it. They are playing to win, not playing to play nice. We need to do the same.

Reminds me of the Grant quote when taking over the Army of the Potomac. Something along the lines of "Stop worrying about what Lee is going to do to us, and start worrying about what we are going to do to Lee"

Shelf is saying let's do a cost benefit and you're saying let's ignore the cost.

Not quite.

I am saying we should (mostly) ignore costs that are measured as "If we do that, they will do this in retaliation"

[Sheilbh]

Although I'd like to know how there can still be a Ukrainian defenseive postion in Sumy but the Russian red arrow has moved past it.

Not sure - maybe some forces bypassed it. There is also penetration down from Chernobyl to Kyiv and up from Crimmea to Kherson.

Whatever happened to The Transneistr Republic?  Did they give up?

It's still going but I imagine Ukrainians doing maps probably aren't going to show Russian backed breakaways in Moldova either

[DGuller]

I'm not as optimistic about the conscience of Russian citizens as you are.  Judging by what I see on the Internet from users highly unlikely to be Kremlinbots, a lot of Russians will see whatever happens to Ukrainians as a just retribution for "what they were doing in Donbass for 8 years" and for embracing Nazism.  Russians are not the sort to wallow in "are we the baddies?" sort of introspection.

I could be wrong.

I wouldn't put too much store on what's on the internet, though. We'll see. Or rather hopefully we won't.

Some parts of the Internet I would put a lot more store in than others.  I'm not getting that impression from reading Twitter of some idiots I don't know who catch my attention because of an algorithm.  I'm reading what people on the Facebook of a generally apolitical Russian immigrant blogger are saying, people who have an established presence and who sounded like normal people when the times were more normal.  He has a huge audience in Russia, Ukraine, and US. 

The blogger came out forcefully against the war, and a lot of his audience in Russia let him know how disappointed they were in him (obviously an understatement in a lot of cases).  Some were understanding, though, as obviously an immigrant living in the US would eventually be brainwashed by the Western anti-Russia propaganda.

[DGuller]

That map is pretty heartening.  Only real penetration is through Sumy to the besieged Nonamograd.

Although I'd like to know how there can still be a Ukrainian defenseive postion in Sumy but the Russian red arrow has moved past it.

Whatever happened to The Transneistr Republic?  Did they give up?

The map is pretty heartening, but probably because it doesn't reflect the reality on the ground.  The actual reality is that Russians are in some parts of Kiev already, which is not a heartening reality.  It seems like a pitched urban warfare is about to take place there.

The Transnistria is definitely alive.  Frozen conflicts propped up by Russia don't just go away.

[Admiral Yi]

Kiev

Jacob, please ban this Russian mole.

[Sheilbh]

According to NBC, Kazakhstan has denied a request to send troops to support Russian forces in Ukraine. It's also not recognising the LNR or DNR. Which seems surprising?

[Legbiter]

According to NBC, Kazakhstan has denied a request to send troops to support Russian forces in Ukraine. It's also not recognising the LNR or DNR. Which seems surprising?

Many ethnic Russians in the north of Kazakhstan. 

[HVC]

Guess those riots are going to start up again.

[Jacob]

If they are calling in reinforcements from reluctant allies, it can't be going that well.