Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Duque de Bragança]

From Brazil, be it Bolsonaro or Lula, it won't matter that much, regarding Ukraine:

Lula's views on foreign policy put him against the prevailing wind today. As President, he refused to take a side in the West's arguments with its rivals, and prided himself on speaking with Venezuela's Hugo Chávez or Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad the same week as George W. Bush or Barack Obama. He says he was "very concerned" when the U.S. and many Latin American countries recognized Juan Guaidó, Venezuela's center-left opposition leader, as President in 2019, in a bid to force Nicolás Maduro, Chávez's authoritarian successor, from power. Even today, after Venezuela's collapse into kleptocracy, Lula refuses to call Maduro a dictator.

Lula remains a die-hard believer that "two elected heads of state, sitting at a table, looking each other in the eye," can resolve any differences. He claims that President Joe Biden and E.U. leaders failed to do that enough in the run-up to Russia's invasion of its neighbor in February. "The United States has a lot of political clout. And Biden could have avoided [the war], not incited it," he says. "He could have participated more. Biden could have taken a plane to Moscow to talk to Putin. This is the kind of attitude you expect from a leader."

Most Western analysts argue that Vladimir Putin's invasion was fueled by an imperialistic desire to seize territory, rather than any provocations from Ukraine. But in Lula's view, even Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who faced a months-long buildup of troops at his borders before the outbreak of war in February, shares blame. "I see the President of Ukraine, speaking on television, being applauded, getting a standing ovation by all the [European] parliamentarians," he says, shaking his head angrily. "This guy is as responsible as Putin for the war. Because in the war, there's not just one person guilty." He argues that it is irresponsible for Western leaders to celebrate Zelensky rather than focusing on closed-door negotiations. "You are encouraging this guy, and then he thinks he is the cherry on your cake. We should be having a serious conversation. OK, you were a nice comedian. But let us not make war for you to show up on TV."

The U.S. and the E.U. should have assured Putin that Ukraine would not join NATO, Lula says, drawing a comparison with the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, when the U.S. and Russia agreed to remove missile deployments from each other's backyards. Western sanctions on Russia have unfairly impacted other regions' economies, he adds. "War is no solution," he says. "And now we are going to have to foot the bill because of the war on Ukraine. Argentina, Bolivia will also have to pay. You're not punishing Putin. You're punishing many different countries, you're punishing mankind."

The conflict underscores the need to renew global institutions, he says. "Today's United Nations doesn't represent anything anymore. Governments don't take the U.N. seriously today, because they make decisions without respecting it," Lula says. "We need to create a new global governance." However difficult that may be in today's fractured world, many leaders and diplomats would welcome Lula's return: over the past four years, Bolsonaro has burned countless bridges, angering China with racist jokes about COVID-19 and mocking E.U. leaders. "Brazil will again become a protagonist on the international stage," Lula pledges, "and we will prove that it's possible to have a better world."

If Lula's stance on Ukraine, or his refusal to acknowledge any corruption-related mistakes by his party, suggest stubbornness, his supporters say he is willing to evolve where it matters.

Long story short, AMLO playbook. "This guy" for Zelensky, I can almost picture him saying o cara. 

https://time.com/6172611/brazil-president-lula-interview/

Wonderful! I understand why people like Mijairzinho get elected now in Brazil.

[Jacob]

Well fuck you Lula.

[Josquius]

Frankly all I care about with brazil is cutting down the rain forest. They're both for that?

[alfred russel]

This will be devastating for Ukraine if and when the Brazilian theater of the Russia-Ukraine War opens.

[Duque de Bragança]

Frankly all I care about with brazil is cutting down the rain forest. They're both for that?

In theory Lula is less so, having to balance it with the interests of natives and poor farmers who need grazing space.

[DGuller]

Entire world is the theater.  The sanctions are the only practical way to wage war on Russia in the nuclear age, and that's what the west is doing in response to the Russian aggression.  Countries that support the Russian narrative are in effect aiding Russia in that war.

[Sheilbh]

Well fuck you Lula.

It's not a Lula thing - see the Pope's comments which are very similar. It seems pretty general from the global south, as is participation in sanctions (basically NATO and the EU, Japan, Australia, South Korea, New Zealand and Taiwan):


I think there's a wider point on the West needing to look at trying to re-build its soft power in the developing world (especially as China is).

[The Minsky Moment]

I think it is legit to for non-OECD countries to take the position that they need to take care of their own economic needs and can't afford the luxury of economic boycotts of vital goods.  But it is quite another thing to follow the BS line about NATO "encirclement" and Ukraine "causing" the conflict; that is deliberately spreading the false propaganda of an aggressor.

[Zanza]

African and South American countries barely trade with Russia anyway, so whether they participate in sanctions or not is fairly inconsequential. Western sanctions on shipping, trade finance etc. will dimish that trade as well.

[Sheilbh]

I think it is legit to for non-OECD countries to take the position that they need to take care of their own economic needs and can't afford the luxury of economic boycotts of vital goods.  But it is quite another thing to follow the BS line about NATO "encirclement" and Ukraine "causing" the conflict; that is deliberately spreading the false propaganda of an aggressor.

I agree - but we have a similar perspective from India (which is slightly different, perhaps), South Africa, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, an Argentine Pope. As I say I think we probably need to take a look at our soft power, because our perspective is clearly not shared.

Edit:

African and South American countries barely trade with Russia anyway, so whether they participate in sanctions or not is fairly inconsequential. Western sanctions on shipping, trade finance etc. will dimish that trade as well.

Neither does the US. But doesn't that make the point more - it would cost very little to join sanctions for many countries (not India) and I suppose a lot of African states have Wagner to deal with. But even 20 years ago I would have expected some countries to join to curry favour with the US and Europe. It is striking that no-one has at a relatively minimal cost.

[Zanza]

Ok, got your point know . I agree, but then 141 countries voted against Russia in the UN.

[Sheilbh]

Reports a Russian frigate in the Black Sea is on fire, near Snake Island. Presumably there have been more moderate storms in the area.

Edit: Also, from the Pope's interview with the Italian press:

"Orbán, when I met him, he told me that the Russians have a plan, that on May 9 it will all be over." Pope met Orbán on April 21.

[Tamas]

Edit: Also, from the Pope's interview with the Italian press:

"Orbán, when I met him, he told me that the Russians have a plan, that on May 9 it will all be over." Pope met Orbán on April 21.

No way Orban is privy to Russian intel. It was what, 1.5 weeks before the outbreak of the war that he went to Moscow and  declared it afterwards a "peace mission" - he is a lacky, at best a Russian intelligence asset, and I am 100% certain he is not being told shit about Putin's plans.

[The Brain]

Did he say which year?

[Tamas]

Reuters is claiming that two sources have told it the European Commission has amended a proposal for an embargo on Russian oil to extend the period before it takes effect for Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic.

Under the tweaked proposal, Hungary and Slovakia will continue to be able to buy Russian oil from pipelines until the end of 2024, whereas the Czech Republic could continue until June 2024, provided that it does not get oil via a pipeline from southern Europe earlier, the sources said.

So I guess Orban can profit from this - he continues to betray NATO and EU to Putin, gets a good oil deal in return, and sell cheap(er) Russian oil on to the rest of the EU. Shambles.