Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Sheilbh]

Hey Beeb, good to see you.

Wish it were in better circumstances.

Yeah good to see you and very glad to have your input and thoughts

But a shame this is why

[Malthus]

Hey all - Valmy reached out to me on FB wanted to know my thoughts.

Unfortunately my thoughts don't go much more profound than "Russian vessel - go fuck yourself".

I don't know why, but I always kind of identified as Ukrainian-Canadian, even though by heritage I'm only half, I don't know more than about a dozen words of the language, and my ancestors came to Canada over 100 years ago from whatever bits of eastern europe they came from.  My last name isn't even a "real" Ukrainian name - it was mangled and anglicized somewhere along the way.

...

Slava Ukraini!  Shche ne vmerla Ukrainy!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7y8Iw6Oee8I&t=154s

BB!

Glad to see you here.

As you know, my wife is Ukrainian and has plenty of relatives living in Ukraine. Some women & children are leaving (we are working on that) and some are staying to fight. 

Needless to say, the past week has been a difficult one for her, and for all of us.

[Barrister]

Yeah - I think if the day one attack on Kyiv got rid of Zelensky and the government basically crumbled, I suspect there would have been normalisation by the West of the end result. Even if it was partition or occupation. The early and theatrical resistance by Zelensky I think had a huge effect on Western feelings about this and, I suspect, on Ukrainian morale.

To be honest I don't think it's necessarily division that made him think he'd get his way - I suspect it was the experience of the 2014 invasion, of the attack on the 2016 election, supporting Belarus, Armenia-Azerbaijan and not facing any significant pushback from the West. There were some sanctions which hit the economy but he was hosting the 2018 World Cup four years after invading Ukraine. I think he had been (and would continue) to push and probe in all directions until he met resistance and he hadn't yet, his mistake was thinking there wouldn't be any ever - and I am surprised how far sanctions are going and by Germany's switch etc. This is all far beyond what I thought would happen and I'm not sure I'm alone in that.

I think the two go together - the experience of past military grabs with minimal blowback, plus the knowledge that his efforts at division have had some success. Both lead to the reasonable conclusion that a bigger military grab was doable.

I mean, if the West basically winked at his acts before, it would make sense that they would wink again - after years of division have weakened their resolve still further.

Yeah, it could also be a fear of missing out.  Maybe he understood that you can't keep prodding a sleeping giant forever, but there is also that fear that maybe you can prod him a whole lot more than you have been so far, and you'll be missing out on once-in-a-generation gains if you play it too cautiously.

I think just age and "legacy" factors in too.  Putin is 69.  He's probably got, what, 10 more years if he's moderately lucky to stay in good health and mental faculties?  He's overseen Russia climb back from the economic collapse of the 90s, but to truly make his mark on history he needed to do something grander, and he was otherwise running out of time.

[Sheilbh]

I think the two go together - the experience of past military grabs with minimal blowback, plus the knowledge that his efforts at division have had some success. Both lead to the reasonable conclusion that a bigger military grab was doable.

That's fair - I think there is something extraordinary in Russian propaganda around this war. Ben Smith of the NYT pointed it out that Naryshkin accused the West of "liberal-fascist cancel culture" towards Russia, while at the same time Russian propaganda outlets are amplifying the (real) racism experienced by Africans especially trying to flee Ukraine and creating falsehoods about Africans trying to get into Poland.

I cannot think of a better example of the mind-bending power of US cultural hegemony than, during a war, Russia's propaganda lines being "cancel culture" and "racism" - it's extraordinary. It's like if the USSR was using and condemning commercialism to spread its message to the West - as opposed to depicting itself as an alternative culture/reality.

I also think, frankly, he over-estimated the divides. Biden's been incredibly good at keeping the alliance united - but look at the polling in Germany, or the UK, or any other Western country and there isn't a division on this. I think he slightly misunderstood divisions on certain issues as being of more consequence than they actually were and infecting every other area of policy which they didn't.

I think just age and "legacy" factors in too.  Putin is 69.  He's probably got, what, 10 more years if he's moderately lucky to stay in good health and mental faculties?  He's overseen Russia climb back from the economic collapse of the 90s, but to truly make his mark on history he needed to do something grander, and he was otherwise running out of time.

Totally agree - and I think Russia's time is running out too. If the world follows through on decarbonisation, Russsia's in profound trouble - they don't have an alternative growth model and it may be that he also thought this was probably one of the last points he could use gas as a weapon. Similarly China is rising but it's not fully integrated Russia into a "Chinese order" yet, so they still have independent action. I'm not sure if Putin looking forward thinks either of those things will still hold in the 2030s or 2040s.

[Barrister]

BB!

Glad to see you here.

As you know, my wife is Ukrainian and has plenty of relatives living in Ukraine. Some women & children are leaving (we are working on that) and some are staying to fight. 

Needless to say, the past week has been a difficult one for her, and for all of us.

I hope and pray your wife's family is safe.  Good on you for helping to bring them to safety.

For over three years in university I dated a girl who had immigrated from Ukraine in her early teens.  She was smoking hot and out of my league.  Anyways I've been thinking of her and her family.  Her immediate family is all safe and in Canada, but she gave me some perspective on what life in Ukraine (during the USSR) was like.



I do feel like if I was a loser with no responsibilities in Canada I'd be jetting off to Ukraine to sign up as a foreign volunteer, but thankfully that is not the case.

[Syt]

BB!

Glad to see you here.

As you know, my wife is Ukrainian and has plenty of relatives living in Ukraine. Some women & children are leaving (we are working on that) and some are staying to fight. 

Needless to say, the past week has been a difficult one for her, and for all of us.

That sounds rough; here's hoping all goes well for them.

[Jacob]

Yeah - I think if the day one attack on Kyiv got rid of Zelensky and the government basically crumbled, I suspect there would have been normalisation by the West of the end result. Even if it was partition or occupation. The early and theatrical resistance by Zelensky I think had a huge effect on Western feelings about this and, I suspect, on Ukrainian morale.

To be honest I don't think it's necessarily division that made him think he'd get his way - I suspect it was the experience of the 2014 invasion, of the attack on the 2016 election, supporting Belarus, Armenia-Azerbaijan and not facing any significant pushback from the West. There were some sanctions which hit the economy but he was hosting the 2018 World Cup four years after invading Ukraine. I think he had been (and would continue) to push and probe in all directions until he met resistance and he hadn't yet, his mistake was thinking there wouldn't be any ever - and I am surprised how far sanctions are going and by Germany's switch etc. This is all far beyond what I thought would happen and I'm not sure I'm alone in that.

Yeah, it really feels like a sea change has happened. We'll see if it lasts, but I think it may. I'll be very interested in future studies that tries to pinpoint the factors that led to that.

Because if someone had told me three weeks ago that the West would've reacted as it did, I would not necessarily have believed it.

[celedhring]

I said it before, in the EU we went from "can we please not embargo Gucci loafers?" to Germany rearming in like 48 hours. I hope we get the backstory of these days at some point.

Good to see you around, BB.

[Jacob]

Good to see you Beeb, wish it was under better circumstances

[Syt]

I said it before, in the EU we went from "can we please not embargo Gucci loafers?" to Germany rearming in like 48 hours. I hope we get the backstory of these days at some point.

Good to see you around, BB.

I wonder if the US had some intelligence they only shared non-publicly that might have tipped the scales.

Alternatively, I feel once someone takes a decisive way and makes it easier for everyone to fall in, it can quickly become an avalanche. Similar to "bystander syndrome" - the more people watch, the less likely everyone is to help. But if someone leads on, more people pitch in.

[Malthus]

It has been extraordinary to me how ineffective Russian propaganda has been in the West since the start of the war.

Perhaps the only good thing to come out of the war is the discrediting of Russian propaganda here.

[celedhring]

It has been extraordinary to me how ineffective Russian propaganda has been in the West since the start of the war.

Perhaps the only good thing to come out of the war is the discrediting of Russian propaganda here.

Well, our own useful idiots are still there, but at least for now they're useless idiots.

[Barrister]

It has been extraordinary to me how ineffective Russian propaganda has been in the West since the start of the war.

Perhaps the only good thing to come out of the war is the discrediting of Russian propaganda here.

Russia has been such a master of propaganda, how they've flubbed this one is amazing.

In part they were setting it up as protecting the breakaway republics.  Which was pretty lame, but whatever.  Also protecting Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine.  Also lame, but at least kind of comprehensible.

But the invasion (sorry, "Special military operation") starts and it's all about how Ukraine is not a real nation and it all belongs to mother russia.

It seems like the Russians have almost given up on the propaganda side of it now, and are just going for 100% denial and censorship now.



As an aside, Malthus, DG, or anyone else - how exactly are Ukrainians perceived in Russia proper.  I know there's a long-standing view in Russian history that Ukraine is not a real nation, that it's "little Russia" - but is there also a sense that Ukrainians are somehow 'lesser' than true Russians?  I heard something like that on a podcast with Rachel Vindman - Lt Col Vindman's wife.  She is not Ukrainian but spent several years in Ukraine and Russia (and of course her husband is Ukrainian born) and said there was prejudice against Ukrainians, but that wasn't something I'd heard before.

[Legbiter]

I said it before, in the EU we went from "can we please not embargo Gucci loafers?" to Germany rearming in like 48 hours. I hope we get the backstory of these days at some point.

Good to see you around, BB.

And Belgium wanted a carve-out for diamonds...

Russia is still exporting gas through Ukraine to the EU like there is no war. Would be a shame if the pipelines blew up.

[viper37]

The only real hope though is regime change in Moscow. 
Slava Ukraini!  Shche ne vmerla Ukrainy!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7y8Iw6Oee8I&t=154s

I totally agree with that, but given his level of support, nothing short of war with the West and total anihilation of Russia's army as a fighting force could accomplish that

Btw, you have a 36 pages backlog to read in the Canadian politics thread, so get your ass movin'!