Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Legbiter]

I don't think it was ever in doubt that Russia could fully occupy Ukraine and get rid of its standing army. The question has always been would Putin risk it given that it could turn into a literally endless insurgency war. Little difference really from how quickly the U.S. had completely pacified the Iraqi Army and had all the territory formally occupied. Maybe the Ukrainians are soft and go into their homes and don't resist--but that isn't what the Iraqis or Afghans did.

Yeah the invasion is the easy part. The economic and reputation cost will be big for Russia. Not sure whether there'll be a long-term insurgency. Putin will probably get his way, Belarus and Ukraine are now firmly in the Russian sphere of influence, stopping any westward drift in these countries. Putin will spend the rest of his days larping as Nicholas I, the gendarme of Europe.

NATO just found it's purpose again if the Americans want to.

[Jacob]

Perhaps the endgame is to install a puppet regime just for long enough to effect recognition of breaking off big chunks of the east and the southern regions under Crimea.  It's hard to conceive how a full scale occupation of the entire country could stick.

Yeah...

I mean, maybe Putin has some plan for how to keep the Ukranian population under his thumb; or maybe he believes they'll turn into little Russians after a little while, in accordance with his view of them?

[Legbiter]

Man this Biden speech is rough, Biden is one of the worst public speakers of this era.

Every time he speaks in public a Chinese leader looks wistfully at a map of Taiwan. 

[Jacob]

Yeah the invasion is the easy part. The economic and reputation cost will be big for Russia. Not sure whether there'll be a long-term insurgency. Putin will probably get his way, Belarus and Ukraine are now firmly in the Russian sphere of influence, stopping any westward drift in these countries. Putin will spend the rest of his days larping as Nicholas I, the gendarme of Europe.

Agreed. Ukraine is in the Russian sphere. The question is what the cost is going to be to Putin, internationally and internally.

NATO just found it's purpose again if the Americans want to.

Yeah. I admit to being worried about that, as I think there's a non-trivial current in American politics that is against NATO and Europe, and I think Putin has nurtured a pretty strong hand of both direct agents and useful idiots. I hope to see America rise to the challenge, but I am far from confident.

[Jacob]

Every time he speaks in public a Chinese leader looks wistfully at a map of Taiwan. 

I'm not here to defend Biden, but I think PRC action is coming on Taiwan. It's just a matter of timing and opportunity.

EDIT: to clarify - I think this is going to happen no matter who the president of the US is.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I'm skeptical America rises to the challenge, frankly. The country has been culturally imploded, I don't want to give Putin too much credit for it, a lot of is just the general collapse of American culture/society as a cohesive entity, but Putin has leveraged it highly effectively.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah. I admit to being worried about that, as I think there's a non-trivial current in American politics that is against NATO and Europe, and I think Putin has nurtured a pretty strong hand of both direct agents and useful idiots. I hope to see America rise to the challenge, but I am far from confident.

Different currents in American politics may matter - I think what matters more is that - unlike OvB I'm not convinced the US can significantly defend Europe and build up as necessary in the Pacific to support their allies there. And I think they'll (probably rightly) see China as the bigger threat that they need to focus on and their Asian allies as less able (if they wish) to maintain their defence than in Europe. I do not see America (regardless of whose in charge) continuing to increase deployments or prioritise European allies (who are some of the richest countries in the world) to face off against a relatively declining petro-state with an economy the size of Benelux, given the challenges US allies are facing in Asia.

I think that choice is coming at some point in the next 10 years - probably this administration or the next.

[Jacob]

I'm skeptical America rises to the challenge, frankly. The country has been culturally imploded, I don't want to give Putin too much credit for it, a lot of is just the general collapse of American culture/society as a cohesive entity, but Putin has leveraged it highly effectively.

I don't know how much credit I want to give either, but I think in addition to leveraging it, Putin has been hammering on those cracks for a long time. Maybe that hammering didn't matter. Maybe it did. But he's been doing his best.

[Jacob]

Different currents in American politics may matter - I think what matters more is that - unlike OvB I'm not convinced the US can significantly defend Europe and build up as necessary in the Pacific to support their allies there. And I think they'll (probably rightly) see China as the bigger threat that they need to focus on and their Asian allies as less able (if they wish) to maintain their defence than in Europe. I do not see America (regardless of whose in charge) continuing to increase deployments or prioritise European allies (who are some of the richest countries in the world) to face off against a relatively declining petro-state with an economy the size of Benelux, given the challenges US allies are facing in Asia.

I think that choice is coming at some point in the next 10 years - probably this administration or the next.

Yeah, if I was in charge I'd be increasing European defense budgets and general capabilities significantly... as would everyone here, I'm sure. Don't know how likely that is to happen, though.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Yeah. I admit to being worried about that, as I think there's a non-trivial current in American politics that is against NATO and Europe, and I think Putin has nurtured a pretty strong hand of both direct agents and useful idiots. I hope to see America rise to the challenge, but I am far from confident.

Different currents in American politics may matter - I think what matters more is that - unlike OvB I'm not convinced the US can significantly defend Europe and build up as necessary in the Pacific to support their allies there. And I think they'll (probably rightly) see China as the bigger threat that they need to focus on and their Asian allies as less able (if they wish) to maintain their defence than in Europe. I do not see America (regardless of whose in charge) continuing to increase deployments or prioritise European allies (who are some of the richest countries in the world) to face off against a relatively declining petro-state with an economy the size of Benelux, given the challenges US allies are facing in Asia.

I think that choice is coming at some point in the next 10 years - probably this administration or the next.

I mean we fought a huge war in Vietnam while maintaining massive deployments in Japan, South Korea and Western Europe in the 1960s/1970s. If you look at our military spending now versus what it could be or has been, there is nothing that prevents us from moving to a Cold War footing other than political will. If you're talking political will, I would agree I'm skeptical we have it. But in raw resources it's not nearly that heavy a lift as it might seem.

[OttoVonBismarck]

The reporters in the room with Biden don't seem to be taking a good view on his sanctions package.

[Razgovory]

The reporters in the room with Biden don't seem to be taking a good view on his sanctions package.

That's okay.  I don't take a good view of it either.

[Jacob]

What's the substance of the sanctions?

[Syt]

No Blood for Applebee's!

[OttoVonBismarck]

What's the substance of the sanctions?

I'd like to see an official document on it to be frank, Biden spoke in fairly large generalizations, not specifics. The claims he made were:

-Cut Russia off from transacting in foreign currencies
-Cut Russia off from getting financing from most Western countries
-Cut Russia off from vague high-technology products it needs to military modernization
- Another round of targeted sanctions on named Russian banks and oligarchs
- Frozen assets of many Russian entities that were in the U.S. banking system, without any details on how big those assets might be

He did mention "gas payments" are not being affected.