Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Admiral Yi]

I don't remember getting anything for my confirmation. Might be a Quebec thing.

Two centuries of Anglo oppression have left you destitute. 

[Threviel]

Nothing indicates that the Ukrainians differ very much in  tactics, their casualties are not zero. This is not a turkey shoot.

Nothing indicates that the Ukrainians use different tactics, except news reports, interviews, blog and vlog repors by Western veterans fighting alongside them, etc, etc, etc.  Do you have evidence that casts doubt on the evidence shown so far?  The fact that Ukrainian casualties are not zero is only evidence that there is a war on, and we already knew that.

My emphasis was meant more on the second part than the first. Meant as a counter to a trend I sometimes see on twitter and like that the Ukraininas are easily swatting away the incompetent Russian hordes.

My impression is based on stuff like Lindybeige's interview with his friend, Michael Kofman on different podcasts I listen to (for example he has a interesting discussion on the question of the fabled Ukrainian NCO corps, which he means is very much overblown).

Of course the Ukrainians try to use different tactics and they are being trained by western militaries and in time that will have a large impact. But right now they have a massively enlarged army with very little western training per capita so to speak. I would think that on a competence/tactics scale from, for example, UK military to Russian military Ukraine is far closer to the Russian end of the spectrum.

But I am just a nobody with no military experience shooting shit, so don't listen to me. Very little hard information available and I guess we'll know in thirty years or so when the historians go over it.

[Tamas]

Belarus announced a joint air force training with Russia from 16th Jan to 1st Feb.

[Josquius]

Nothing indicates that the Ukrainians differ very much in  tactics, their casualties are not zero. This is not a turkey shoot.

Nothing indicates that the Ukrainians use different tactics, except news reports, interviews, blog and vlog repors by Western veterans fighting alongside them, etc, etc, etc.  Do you have evidence that casts doubt on the evidence shown so far?  The fact that Ukrainian casualties are not zero is only evidence that there is a war on, and we already knew that.

My emphasis was meant more on the second part than the first. Meant as a counter to a trend I sometimes see on twitter and like that the Ukraininas are easily swatting away the incompetent Russian hordes.

My impression is based on stuff like Lindybeige's interview with his friend, Michael Kofman on different podcasts I listen to (for example he has a interesting discussion on the question of the fabled Ukrainian NCO corps, which he means is very much overblown).

Of course the Ukrainians try to use different tactics and they are being trained by western militaries and in time that will have a large impact. But right now they have a massively enlarged army with very little western training per capita so to speak. I would think that on a competence/tactics scale from, for example, UK military to Russian military Ukraine is far closer to the Russian end of the spectrum.

But I am just a nobody with no military experience shooting shit, so don't listen to me. Very little hard information available and I guess we'll know in thirty years or so when the historians go over it.

My impression is that yeah, the Ukrainians aren't exactly playing Rambo against the faceless Russian mooks. They are suffering bad casualties too.
But its all coming from quite a different place. I do hope post war solid data comes out about this.
From what I gather the Russians are playing WW1 in Bakmut, storming machine guns and suffering heavy causalities desperately trying to gain land.
For the Ukrainians meanwhile its more the Soviets in Stalingrad et al. Being smacked heavily by superior firepower from the other side. Though this is far less of a problem than it was pre-HIMARs I don't think they're completely over it.

Worth remembering even if they were following the same tactics, there's a reason the Germans tended to have lower casualties than France and the UK in WW1.  In a few months when Ukraine goes on the offensive then time will tell.

Belarus announced a joint air force training with Russia from 16th Jan to 1st Feb.

I do think if Ukraine have their planning right and my intel about Belarus is right, that lushenko joining the war would be to Ukraine's benefit.

[Richard Hakluyt]

One feature of WW1 battles, that I think has been forgotten by many, is that defender casualties were not that lower than attacker casualties (at least on the western front). The problem for the attackers was that they failed to achieve breakthroughs so the meatgrinder just carried on. Russia has a population three or four times that of Ukraine...they will likely win if the war becomes one of attrition; otoh Russian national morale could crack in a war that is essentially one of pointless aggression.

[Josquius]

One feature of WW1 battles, that I think has been forgotten by many, is that defender casualties were not that lower than attacker casualties (at least on the western front). The problem for the attackers was that they failed to achieve breakthroughs so the meatgrinder just carried on. Russia has a population three or four times that of Ukraine...they will likely win if the war becomes one of attrition; otoh Russian national morale could crack in a war that is essentially one of pointless aggression.

It depends what you define as the battle surely?
Looking at wikipedia they have battles going on for months, counting attacks and counter attacks, and then the eventual breakthrough.
The assaults were preceded by heavy bombardment which would have caused defender casualties but looking at the assaults themselves I find it hard to believe the typical attack would have too many defender casualties.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Well the battles could last months; take a look at the casualty figures for Verdun and the Somme :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Somme

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Verdun

Both casualty lists slightly favour the Germans despite them being the attacker at Verdun.


Of course I am hoping that Ukraine is getting better results than this, but getting pounded by artillery whilst continuing to hold a position is bound to lead to a lot of casualties.

[Threviel]

The Germans were attacking in the first phase of Verdun, the second phase was a French counter attack against entrenched Germans in better positions.

Battles were often a series of attacks and counter attacks, the Germans had as doctrine that they should always counter attack ASAP for example.

I don't necessarily think WWI is a good template for how this is going, war is very different today with drones, pin point artillery, armour and primarily much better communication.

[Sheilbh]

I don't necessarily think WWI is a good template for how this is going, war is very different today with drones, pin point artillery, armour and primarily much better communication.

I don't disagree on WW1. But for all those differences you still look at this war and just think, to nick a phrase, of the poor bloody infantry - and, as experienced by the people fighting, how little war has changed.

[Threviel]

I don't disagree on WW1. But for all those differences you still look at this war and just think, to nick a phrase, of the poor bloody infantry - and, as experienced by the people fighting, how little war has changed.

Yeah, poor bastards, must be absolute hell.

[The Brain]

At least they don't have to fight while doused in mustard gas. Yet.

[Sheilbh]

Lots of reports Britain's looking at providing what seems like a small number of Challenger tanks to Ukraine (but I don't know what's a big number of tanks to be honest - maybe it's a lot ).

It'll probably be helpful a bit in Ukraine - although I think there must be huge logistical challenges in having spare parts, skills, ammo etc for all of these different systems they're getting from different countries - but it might help encourage other countries to provide similar which I think is probably a bigger thing than their actual effect on the ground?

Although the UK has very few tanks now so hopefully we'll be expanding orders/production so we can carry on to support Ukraine without accidentally disarming our forces...

[Josquius]

It's surprising news certainly. Has the whole of Eastern Europe (bar cuntgary) handed over all their Warsaw pact stuff now?
More usual for stuff like challengers would be we give them to Poland and they hand over some T-somethings to Ukraine.

Though I do wonder whether there's also an angle of western nations being excited to get a chance to see their stuff tested in a proper war.

[Grey Fox]

Lots of reports Britain's looking at providing what seems like a small number of Challenger tanks to Ukraine (but I don't know what's a big number of tanks to be honest - maybe it's a lot ).

It'll probably be helpful a bit in Ukraine - although I think there must be huge logistical challenges in having spare parts, skills, ammo etc for all of these different systems they're getting from different countries - but it might help encourage other countries to provide similar which I think is probably a bigger thing than their actual effect on the ground?

Although the UK has very few tanks now so hopefully we'll be expanding orders/production so we can carry on to support Ukraine without accidentally disarming our forces...

12 is not a lot for Ukraine, it's a lot for the UK.

[The Larch]

Apparently Ukraine is aiming at receiving 300 tanks, the UK (which apparently only has 200+ tanks in total) giving a few is seen as a way to nudge others, mostly Germany, to donate their fair share.