Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Zanza]

It is not clear what motivates Scholz' reluctance. He is not a Putinversteher himself and if even Mützenich, the SPD parliamentary leader and former Putinversteher, is open to it, it is not even internal party dissent.

[Legbiter]

It's really baffling to me - largely because after initially saying "no" there's normally a period, as he says, of German spokespeople defending that decision really strongly. It manages to annoy and alarm many of Germany's allies in Europe so much that they don't get much credit when they eventually u-turn into doing it.

Yeah it's maddening to watch this dynamic play out over and over again. Always making sure Germany gets maximum ire and minimum upside. Once or twice, ok, but I've lost count of how often this exact pattern repeats itself at this point.

[Valmy]

And, of course, they are probably very conscious that nothing would bring out the internal Russian "Great Patriotic War" propaganda like some assertive/aggressive German foreign policy.

I think we're already beyond that tipping point myself though.

That, and what happens in reality has very little to do with the propaganda Russians see.

I keep watching those subtitled Russian propaganda shows with subtitles.  I'm even starting to recognize the hosts, like Vladimir Solovyev.  It's all fairly deranged.

But anyways - Russia has already convinced themselves they are "at war with NATO".  So I'm not sure what is to be feared by including tanks with all the other stuff we have sent.

Are they still laboring under the delusion France and Britain are freezing to death due to cutting off their gas?

[Grey Fox]

 All signs point to yes.

Today, they claimed the destruction of 4 Bradleys.

[Legbiter]

All signs point to yes.

Today, they claimed the destruction of 4 Bradleys.

My God, they weren't even in Ukraine!

[Darth Wagtaros]

All signs point to yes.

Today, they claimed the destruction of 4 Bradleys.

My God, they weren't even in Ukraine!

Quora is full of Russians claiming that the US has suffered thousands of casualties and that NATO militaries are already past the breaking point due to incompetence before the might of the Russian War Machine.  Some of them may even believe it.

US and NATO special operations forces are apparently poorly armed and inept in the extreme.

[Legbiter]

Quora is full of Russians claiming that the US has suffered thousands of casualties and that NATO militaries are already past the breaking point due to incompetence before the might of the Russian War Machine.

And with Zanza losing 3 fingers to frostbite because of no Russian gas plus now Ukraine has minus 4 Bradleys in service, I think we got too cocky.

[DGuller]

All signs point to yes.

Today, they claimed the destruction of 4 Bradleys.

My God, they weren't even in Ukraine!

Quora is full of Russians claiming that the US has suffered thousands of casualties and that NATO militaries are already past the breaking point due to incompetence before the might of the Russian War Machine.  Some of them may even believe it.

US and NATO special operations forces are apparently poorly armed and inept in the extreme.

Best case scenario is that Quora has been non-moderated into being a propaganda dump for Russia and China.  I think there is a significant chance that it's even worse than that, and that the moderation of the site has been infiltrated by Russian and/or Chinse governments, and thus the discussions are actively channeled towards propaganda talking points.

[mongers]

Read a news item reporting on the fighting in Soledar, Ukrainian soldiers are quoted as saying the Russians are throwing one or two waves of Wagner troops at the Ukrainian lines, no matter what the cost, only when Ukrainians tire and have taken casualties, are the regular, experienced Russian infantry then sent in.

That could part explain the huge casualties being sustained around the town and the modest gain they've made in recent days.

[Jacob]

Interesting flip in the narrative. It used to be Wagner who was experienced and the regular infantry that was inept, now it's the other way around at least at the moment.

[Admiral Yi]

I wonder how they can tell the difference.  Do they wear different uniforms?

[HVC]

Where do the prison conscripts go, Wagner or normal army?

[mongers]

Interesting flip in the narrative. It used to be Wagner who was experienced and the regular infantry that was inept, now it's the other way around at least at the moment.

The news item is here:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1/12/russian-forces-edge-closer-to-capturing-soledar

Bloodbath': Russia presses assault in Ukraine's Soledar
According to Ukraine, more than 100 Russian troops were killed in the battle for the eastern town during the past 24 hours.

.....
Al Jazeera's Charles Stratford, reporting from near Bakhmut, said there was "a lot of heavy shelling all around this area".

Earlier, Ukrainian soldiers told Al Jazeera that Russian troops were in the centre of Soledar and in control of its salt mine.

"They described Russian tanks in the centre of Soledar as well, and said there are concerns among the Ukrainian forces about possible escape routes for the Ukrainian troops inside Soledar," Stratford said.

The troops were trying to "protect a western route out of the town", he said.

The Russians' tactic in the assault on Soledar has been to send one or two waves of soldiers, many from the private Russian military contractor Wagner Group who take heavy casualties as they probe the Ukrainian defences, a Ukrainian officer near Soledar told The Associated Press.

When Ukrainian troops suffer casualties and are exhausted, the Russians send in another wave of highly trained soldiers, paratroopers or special forces to get a new toehold on the battlefield, said the Ukrainian officer, who insisted on anonymity for security reasons.
.....

Jacob, I think as another poster suggests, these could include many of the prison drafts and those    in desperate straits who signed up for Wagner because of the large cash sums offered in recent months.

[Valmy]

Well that's sobering. Granted Russia is only slowly grinding forward in the ridiculously difficult terrain of the Donbas but it sounds like both sides are taking heavy losses in a classic WWI style battle of attrition. With all the poor bastards the Russians are drafting that might favor them a bit in the short term.

Fuck what a terrible war.

[Tamas]

Yeah what I am hoping for is that the Ukrainians are acting based on good Intel and accept that mini-Verdun battle because the math checks out in their benefit.