Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Syt]

From the BBC summary up till about an hour ago:

If you're just joining us now, here's a quick recap on the main developments on this fast-developing story:

Russia has massed some 190,000 troops along Ukraine's borders - the biggest military build-up in Europe since World War Two, US officials say
Moscow denies planning an invasion of Ukraine and accuses the West of stoking "hysteria"
Russia says some of its troops have begun returning to their bases after planned drills - but Ukraine and its allies say they see no evidence of that
Moscow also announces ballistic and cruise missile drills on Saturday
In Ukraine's eastern Donbas region, Russian-backed rebels announce a mass evacuation of residents, saying Ukraine has intensified shelling in the region. There is no evidence of the shelling happening
Russian President Vladimir Putin says the situation in Donbas is deteriorating
Ukraine and its allies say Moscow maybe seeking a pretext to invade Ukraine
In Munich, Germany, world leaders are meeting for a security conference - but Russia is not attending for first time since 1999

[Syt]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/18/russia-ukraine-updates/#link-BFEO2X5LEZFGDPELLMK5OUPKUM

United States 'deeply concerned' Russia has turned away from diplomatic path, Blinken says

By John Hudson11:14 a.m.

MUNICH — The Biden administration is "deeply concerned" that Russian President Vladimir Putin has turned away from a diplomatic resolution to the crisis in Ukraine, Secretary of State Antony Blinken told an audience at the Munich Security Conference on Friday.

The top U.S. diplomat made the remarks amid fears that an evacuation announcement by a Russian-backed leader of a separatist-controlled area of eastern Ukraine could be followed by military action.

"Even as we are doing everything we possibly can to make clear there's a diplomatic path ... we are deeply concerned that is not the path Russia is embarked on," said Blinken, speaking on a panel that included German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock.

Blinken said Russia continues to create "false provocations" and that the United States is committed to shining a "light on what we see."

Blinken said the "single greatest source of strength we have" is solidarity with European partners, including Germany. The German government has decided against providing Ukraine with defensive weapons, even as other countries have supplied mortars, antitank missiles and other gear.

Responding to criticism that Germany has not done more to help Ukraine, Baerbock said, "We have different roles, and we have a different history." She noted that Berlin's opposition to sending weapons abroad stemmed from its post-World War II vow to "never again" start a "war" or a "genocide."

On imposing sanctions on Moscow for its actions, she vowed that Russia's Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline to Germany would not be spared — something that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has been more reluctant to state specifically.

"All options are on the table, including Nord Stream 2," she said.

Blinken defended Germany's actions related to the Ukraine crisis, saying it plays a "complementary" role.

[Jacob]

It was just probably what somebody thought a clever ruse to get their high command into war readiness and have Putin attend without raising alarm bells.

That makes some sense.

[Syt]

Also, today marks the anniversary of police attacking protesters in Maidan square in 2014.

[Sheilbh]

From the BBC summary up till about an hour ago:

Zelenskiy is attending the Munich Security Conference (and interesting piece about Ischinger and the MSC in Politico) this weekend. Which would probably be a good thing to take advantage of, if you're Russia?

[Syt]

From the BBC summary up till about an hour ago:

Zelenskiy is attending the Munich Security Conference (and interesting piece about Ischinger and the MSC in Politico) this weekend. Which would probably be a good thing to take advantage of, if you're Russia?

Possibly. I'm more concerned concerned about Russia withdrawing (at least temporarily) from a forum that gave room to informal discussions in a situation like this.

[Tamas]

From the BBC summary up till about an hour ago:

Zelenskiy is attending the Munich Security Conference (and interesting piece about Ischinger and the MSC in Politico) this weekend. Which would probably be a good thing to take advantage of, if you're Russia?

Possibly. I'm more concerned concerned about Russia withdrawing (at least temporarily) from a forum that gave room to informal discussions in a situation like this.

Yeah. If they haven't decided to go to war, I have no idea what they are doing.

BTW I think Zelensky has cancelled his Munich trip.

[Syt]

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60428211?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=620fe817571bfc64f8e64885%26Russia%20ramps%20up%20%27genocide%27%20accusations%262022-02-18T18%3A48%3A06.997Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:5edabecd-56c1-4574-8c8d-ee93a0b60bba&pinned_post_asset_id=620fe817571bfc64f8e64885&pinned_post_type=share

The Russian parliament speaker and ambassador to Washington have both accused the Ukrainian government of "genocide" following reports of conflict in the eastern part of the country, where Moscow-backed separatists ordered an evacuation of civilians on Friday.

Such claims have been vehemently denied by Ukraine and come amid accusations by Washington and its allies that Russia could be seeking a pretext to invade Ukraine. Moscow denies this.

Vyacheslav Volodin, the chairman of the lower house, wrote on Telegram that Moscow should intervene to stop "genocide" and "crimes against humanity" allegedly perpetrated by Ukraine.

"Peaceful people are suffering, dying. We cannot stand idly by. We are concerned with defending Russian citizens and compatriots who live there," he said.

"Kyiv's crimes are being hushed up by Washington and Brussels," he wrote.

Similar accusations were earlier voiced by the Russian ambassador to Washington, Anatoly Antonov.

"How else can one assess the shelling by Ukrainian forces of residential areas using multiple-rocket launch systems? Or the mass burials of almost 300 peaceful civilians that have been found outside Luhansk, who died only because they saw Russian as their native language?" he wrote on Facebook.

Antonov was referring to the recent allegations by Russian investigators that "mass graves" had been discovered in Eastern Ukraine.

[Razgovory]

So this is happening.

[DGuller]

How could it be?  Gaijin told us it was all bullshit.  I guess he didn't see the Ukrainian attack on the radio station coming. 

[Valmy]

Well I was wrong. I guess there will be blood after all. I hope Ukraine has their drones ready.

[Valmy]

How could it be?  Gaijin told us it was all bullshit.  I guess he didn't see the Ukrainian attack on the radio station coming. 

Mass genocide of Russians, when most Ukrainians probably have many Russians in their extended family and probably many friends, is a pretty bold claim. The Russians don't do plausible lies I see.

[DGuller]

How could it be?  Gaijin told us it was all bullshit.  I guess he didn't see the Ukrainian attack on the radio station coming. 

Mass genocide of Russians, when most Ukrainians probably have many Russians in their extended family and probably many friends, is a pretty bold claim. The Russians don't do plausible lies I see.

Russians realize that effective propaganda does not require plausible lies, it just requires switching off people's critical thinking.  Spend most of your effort on the latter part, and the lies will make themselves plausible enough on their own.

[DGuller]

I'm seeing reports on Twitter that videos of separatist leaders responding to Ukraine's February 18 attacks were filmed on February 16th, according to metadata.  Is it possible that the separatists are making shit up about Ukrainian attacks?

[Maladict]

Overheard some colleagues talking about how our media can't be trusted and Russia is probably right about hitting back at NATO aggression. Scary stuff.