Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Jacob]

Two concerning headlines I'm seeing today:

Experts say that Ukraine is unable to conduct offensive operations (implicitly "at significant scale", and also implicitly "due to lack of supplies").

Transnistria has asked Russia for protection against Moldova.

[Grey Fox]

South Ossetia is jealous.

[grumbler]

Remember last year when Democrats helped some arsonists set the Republican congress on fire for some time, because that's what parties in opposition should do?  Turned out those cheap laughs came at the cost of Ukraine being able to defend itself.  In hindsight, was it worth it?

I'm missing a reference here... what are you talking about?

Nothing breaking, just the increasing clarity that withholding the aid to Ukraine was the end, not the means to solving the border or some other pretext.  Johnson seems to refuse to bring the Ukraine aid up for vote, which would easily pass if voted on.

Johnson's refusal could be overcome by a simple majority in a discharge petition, if that's what Republican backbenchers really want.

[Sheilbh]

So Scholz did another statement about not sending ground troops and basically said Germany couldn't help in the way France and Britain were. This was immediately followed with Der Spiegel reporting about French and British troops in Ukraine to support their use of Storm Shadow missiles (targeting etc).

Which seems to have caused a lot of irritation in London and Paris as basically that information was shared between allies, but neither Britain or France had publicly confirmed it. From the Economist  Brussels correspondent:

Stanley Pignal
@spignal
Even by the standards of German policymaking of late, the casual allegation by Olaf Scholz that Britain and France have troops involved in operating cruise missiles in Ukraine is... a pretty hostile move? Seems to have breached intel-sharing rules + v much pissed off allies.

And from a international affairs specialist in Belgium (and in a few security think tanks) noting that this may have abused intelligence sharing, harmed security of British and French troops plus relations with London and Paris (from what I've read both are very annoyed) - and quite possibly caused a challenge for any other support for Ukraine that requires on the ground support. This may explain Scholz's refusal to send missiles though.

But the thing that struck me from the reporting of this is that it seems to have been casual/careless rather than deliberate (which I'm not sure really makes it any better). But also maybe a little bit of a panic from Scholz about Western support - and I wonder if that is the explanation of why it's always two steps forward one step back with him.

[OttoVonBismarck]

We took too great a pain to turn Germany into a country of fat capitalists focused with making money and leisure in the post-war era, frankly. They aren't a people capable of contributing to any serious defense matters without major cultural revision.

[Legbiter]

So Scholz did another statement about not sending ground troops and basically said Germany couldn't help in the way France and Britain were. This was immediately followed with Der Spiegel reporting about French and British troops in Ukraine to support their use of Storm Shadow missiles (targeting etc).

   

[Grey Fox]

Scholz was explaining how so much of the German authorization process goes thru their parliement.

"What the British and French are doing in terms of target control and the accompaniment of target control cannot be done in Germany," emphasized Scholz. "Everyone who has dealt with this system knows that."
...
"What other countries do, which have different traditions and different constitutional institutions, is something that we cannot do in the same way."

https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/scholz-taurus-ukraine-102.html (in german)

[DGuller]

Seems like telling on the allies doesn't require parliamentary approval, though.

[Tamas]

So technically British and French troops have been firing rockets on Russian targets? So Putin has casus belli to start sending nukes whenever, might as well increase support.

[Josquius]

So technically British and French troops have been firing rockets on Russian targets? So Putin has casus belli to start sending nukes whenever, might as well increase support.

I think they're missing the critical firing part.
Going
"here's a missile for you.
Oh look. At these particular coordinates is that Russian HQ you mentioned the other day. Isn't that funny.
Well. Be seeing you next week."

[Barrister]

So technically British and French troops have been firing rockets on Russian targets? So Putin has casus belli to start sending nukes whenever, might as well increase support.

I think they're missing the critical firing part.
Going
"here's a missile for you.
Oh look. At these particular coordinates is that Russian HQ you mentioned the other day. Isn't that funny.
Well. Be seeing you next week."

There's not a chance in the world that NATO/the US hasn't been feeding that kind of intel to Ukraine for two years now.

[Tamas]

So technically British and French troops have been firing rockets on Russian targets? So Putin has casus belli to start sending nukes whenever, might as well increase support.

I think they're missing the critical firing part.
Going
"here's a missile for you.
Oh look. At these particular coordinates is that Russian HQ you mentioned the other day. Isn't that funny.
Well. Be seeing you next week."

There's not a chance in the world that NATO/the US hasn't been feeding that kind of intel to Ukraine for two years now.

For sure.

I am reading that the Ukrainian high command and Zelensky are now officially having a grim outlook.

I guess in hindsight the counteroffensive was a big waste of resources which as it turns out the West wasn't willing to replace.

Meanwhile I was reading Azerbaijan is increasingly looking like it's setting up incidents to go for more of Armenia. I eagerly await the 100k London protests for peace when that happens, but more importantly this shows the world we will be living in if Russia manages to claim victory. Sure, the Azeris are mainly uppity because Russia is way too occupied in Ukraine to care about protecting Armenia, but I am sure US political deadlock and European indecision plays a part in making their plans.

[Sheilbh]

Maybe I think Azerbaijan is entirely Russia because they were the guarantors for Armenia - I'm not sure the US or EU have ever had anything beyond "thoughts and prayers" for Armenia, sadly.

Although to slightly complicate things Azerbaijan is one of the few states bordering Russia that hasn't seen a massive spike in imports from Europe (and the US) and exports to Russia. They've got enough gas (Israel's biggest supplier, I believe), not to need to play the sanctions arbitrage game. Armenia, on the other hand, has basically sadly no alternative so is an absolute hub.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Well and while the West's position between Azerbaijan and Armenia has always been quasi-neutral, in reality Azerbaijan has enjoyed a closer relationship—it signed agreements during the GWOT to allow the U.S. to leverage its territory for logistics and received U.S. military aid in exchange (the President even was granting them waivers, because some early 1990s legislation technically blocked sending military aid to Azerbaijan, but in the Bush era Congress gave the President waiver authority on that prohibition.)

Meanwhile Armenia was historically closer to Russia, which somewhat distanced it from the United States.

There has been a Armenian-American lobbying cabal for some time to try to get America to drift more to their side, but it is unsurprising given the history that America isn't super motivated to jump on Azerbaijan.

Armenia abused its position in the conflict when it had a stronger military position, and now the reverse is happening. While it may not be "right", it is kind of how it is.

[viper37]

We took too great a pain to turn Germany into a country of fat capitalists focused with making money and leisure in the post-war era, frankly. They aren't a people capable of contributing to any serious defense matters without major cultural revision.

They were already a country of a fat capitalists focused with making money and leisure in the pre-war era, frankly.
Just that some of them thought they would make more money and and have more leisure with Hitler at the head of the country.  Many of those ended up in some camp or another.