Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[DGuller]

If I recall correctly, Ukrainian air force was essentially grounded in 2014, after they suffered unacceptably high losses against the rebels (or the Russian crew who went on vacation to Donbass and took their Buk vehicles with them).  I imagine that even the Russian crew weren't at full effectiveness in Donbass, since they were probably relaxing during their vacation and didn't have the full infrastructure support, so things are only going to get worse for Ukrainian planes during the open war.

[Sheilbh]

I thought it was a bad decision - but looks like Zelenskiy's trip to the MSC was worth it. Marked shift in tone and pretty impressive comments from what I've read.

[Tamas]

nnalena Baerbock, the German foreign minister, warned that it remained unclear whether Vladimir Putin had yet made a decision about Ukraine, tamping down Washington's urgent warnings of an imminent invasion.

"We do not know yet if an attack has been decided on," she told reporters on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, according to AFP. She added that the "threat against Ukraine is very real".

Way to Germany, GG continuing to muddy the waters. What else the high drama performed by the separatists and their 2-days old emergency video is supposed to indicate other than that the decision HAS been made?

[Admiral Yi]

Way to Germany, GG continuing to muddy the waters. What else the high drama performed by the separatists and their 2-days old emergency video is supposed to indicate other than that the decision HAS been made?

I say the same to you I said to Gaijin: what difference does it make?  If Germany says they're unclear whether Russia will invade it doesn't change the chances of them invading.

[DGuller]

nnalena Baerbock, the German foreign minister, warned that it remained unclear whether Vladimir Putin had yet made a decision about Ukraine, tamping down Washington's urgent warnings of an imminent invasion.

"We do not know yet if an attack has been decided on," she told reporters on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, according to AFP. She added that the "threat against Ukraine is very real".

Way to Germany, GG continuing to muddy the waters. What else the high drama performed by the separatists and their 2-days old emergency video is supposed to indicate other than that the decision HAS been made?

My guess is that if Putin is bluffing, he's not sharing that intention with anyone at all.  If he's bluffing, then every single person apart from Putin, Russian or foreign, would earnestly believe that the invasion is going to happen.

[Syt]

Russian tanks with airdrop parachutes attached.

https://twitter.com/gepardtatze/status/1495040871967907840?s=20&t=brvvD9hRExGcuuy54sprPw

[Sheilbh]

nnalena Baerbock, the German foreign minister, warned that it remained unclear whether Vladimir Putin had yet made a decision about Ukraine, tamping down Washington's urgent warnings of an imminent invasion.

"We do not know yet if an attack has been decided on," she told reporters on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, according to AFP. She added that the "threat against Ukraine is very real".

Way to Germany, GG continuing to muddy the waters. What else the high drama performed by the separatists and their 2-days old emergency video is supposed to indicate other than that the decision HAS been made?

It seems like a fair point to me. What that activity indicates is that at the minute Russia's operating through proxies and generating pretext - that's a position you can walk away from, in a way that committing Russian forces isn't. At the minute Putin is still in the grey zone - it may be that US intelligence knows that he's going to make a move, but at this point he still has options.

It looks very likely there'll be an invasion - that's what the US and UK have been consistently about their intelligence. I think the UK line is still that we don't know if Putin's made the decision/given the order - but everything is in place and everything points to Russia generating a pretext for an invasion.

I also think there's still a lack of clarity around what the content of that "decision" is. It seems like it could be anything from full invasion, regime change and occupation to expanding the enclaves in Eastern Ukraine or taking Novorossiya. I don't know when we'll know that - I suspect not until we're actually watching an invasion take place. All of them seem to have big problems/reasons they're unlikely - so I'm not sure anyone knows out of the very tight circle around Putin and he may not know himself yet.

Edit: Incidnetally my impression is Baerbock was pretty impressive (certainly seemed more content than Scholz or Harris in their remarks) - the one quibble I'd have is her comments around arms and linking that to Germany's history, because Germany's the world's fourth largest arms exporter after the US, Russia and France. Germany exports weapons to countries like Algeria and Egypt - as France and Greece would point out in their recent naval stand-off with Turkey they were facing down Germany manufactured warships. Obviously the German government's entirely within its rights to decide who it allows to import weapons - but I don't think it should be positioned as an ethical stance around the arms trade.

[mongers]

Al Jazeera are reporting that new and different military units are appearing inside the rebel enclaves.

Their source, two women they're keeping anonymous, said when the air raid sirens went off yesterday, some people panicked and went into the streets, where they encountered soldiers unlike the rebel militia they're familiar with; these men had different uniforms, weapons and were noticeably more aggressive.

The Al Jazeera correspondent in Kiev suggested this might tie in with Ukraine intelligence reports of Wagner group units now operating in those 'republics' .

[Syt]

Lufthansa and Austrian have canceled flights to Kiev till end of the month.

[Zanza]

Edit: Incidnetally my impression is Baerbock was pretty impressive (certainly seemed more content than Scholz or Harris in their remarks) - the one quibble I'd have is her comments around arms and linking that to Germany's history, because Germany's the world's fourth largest arms exporter after the US, Russia and France. Germany exports weapons to countries like Algeria and Egypt - as France and Greece would point out in their recent naval stand-off with Turkey they were facing down Germany manufactured warships. Obviously the German government's entirely within its rights to decide who it allows to import weapons - but I don't think it should be positioned as an ethical stance around the arms trade.

I never found that argument plausible. Most of the stuff Ukraine wanted short-term apparently does not even exist, so it is hard to deliver - and shows how woefully our own military is equipped. But a general ban does not make sense. E.g. blocking Estonia to handover old GDR equipment to Ukraine is just ridiculous.

[KRonn]

I am waiting for someone to show up and tell us how there is nuance, and really, the aggressor was actually the Ukraine, because some commission noted that in fact some Russian in the Donbass was actually aggressively yelled at, so clearly it was all their fault, and besides, you can't really blame Russia because back in 1576 the Mongols attacked them.

Hehe, yeah, the Russians attempt a spin, that Ukraine is oppressing the Russian population in the eastern region, and could use it as reason to move in. I've seen reports that Russia has granted citizenship to hundreds of thousands of people (Russian speaking I assume) in the Donbas area, further pushing Putin's agenda. So as we all know there's been conflict in that region for years with Russian separatists and others infiltrated in, setting the stage for Russia to move in if/when Putin decides.

[KRonn]

Al Jazeera are reporting that new and different military units are appearing inside the rebel enclaves.

Their source, two women they're keeping anonymous, said when the air raid sirens went off yesterday, some people panicked and went into the streets, where they encountered soldiers unlike the rebel militia they're familiar with; these men had different uniforms, weapons and were noticeably more aggressive.

The Al Jazeera correspondent in Kiev suggested this might tie in with Ukraine intelligence reports of Wagner group units now operating in those 'republics' .

There were reports earlier this week that some Russian forces were pulling back, giving some a false hope that conflict would be avoided, but that was quickly quashed. Russia has instead been moving in more and more equipment and forces.

[mongers]

The leader of Plaid Cymru in Wales, Adam Price has gone to Ukraine, along with a labour politician to show solidarity with the Ukrainian people in the face of Russian aggression.   

Details here:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-60448384

[Josquius]

Nice and all.
Good to see proper socialists speaking up for Ukraine. Seeing lots of ads from shifty socialist worker groups banging on about evil NATO.

But just where does Ukraine stand on ethnic minorities?
Guess it shows the success of Russian propeganda that this is so muddied. I recall Tamas posting earlier about anti minority laws that hurt the Hungarians?
But then there's the tatars who aren't big on Russia and want to be in Ukraine...

[Tamas]

Shocking developments:

Joint military exercises by Russia and Belarus close to the Belarusian border with Ukraine were due to end today but the Belarusian defense ministry has announced that they will continue.

I think they WERE going to attack on the 16th but got thrown off by the US just coming out and saying they knew the date. Question is how long are they going to wait? What's the weather forecast in that part of the world?