Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Zoupa]

Feels topical:

[Sheilbh]

On Europe - question for Germans. Fully get that Germany is by some distance the biggest donor to Ukraine and I do believe the zeitenwende is happening (slowly).

But from what I read whenever there's a row over sending x weapons (just reading about Taurus) it feels like the CDU/CSU back it and in the government the Greens and FDP back it. But normally there seems to be a bit of an issue with Scholz or the SPD - and I wondered about that. Is that roughly right? And is the difficulty more Scholz personally or is it the SPD more broadly or factions within it?

[Josquius]

Not mentioned here yet but pretty big news related to the war today.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/02/20/spain-russia-ukraine-kuminov-assassination-defector/

That Russian pilot who detected with his helicopter. Clearly whacked by Russian intelligence in Spain.
The brutality makes it like Salisbury on acid.

Hopefully it doesn't have its intended effect and deter anyone from doing the same.

[crazy canuck]

Feels topical:

The scene in A Bridge Too Far comes to mind - the one where a brave paratrooper takes enemy fire to bring in a badly needed supply cannister, and it is full of berets.

[Zoupa]

On Europe - question for Germans. Fully get that Germany is by some distance the biggest donor to Ukraine and I do believe the zeitenwende is happening (slowly).

But from what I read whenever there's a row over sending x weapons (just reading about Taurus) it feels like the CDU/CSU back it and in the government the Greens and FDP back it. But normally there seems to be a bit of an issue with Scholz or the SPD - and I wondered about that. Is that roughly right? And is the difficulty more Scholz personally or is it the SPD more broadly or factions within it?

The Taurus is the best weapon to bring down the Kerch bridge. My read is that Scholz is terrified of that happening for some reason.

[Zanza]

On Europe - question for Germans. Fully get that Germany is by some distance the biggest donor to Ukraine and I do believe the zeitenwende is happening (slowly).

But from what I read whenever there's a row over sending x weapons (just reading about Taurus) it feels like the CDU/CSU back it and in the government the Greens and FDP back it. But normally there seems to be a bit of an issue with Scholz or the SPD - and I wondered about that. Is that roughly right? And is the difficulty more Scholz personally or is it the SPD more broadly or factions within it?

There are more hawkish and more dovish people in each of the parties.

Obviously not everybody in the Greens/FDP is like Panzer-Toni or MASZ. Especially the Greens have many convinced doves. There are hawks in the SPD too, e.g. Andreas Schwarz, but overall the party is more dovish.

On the CDU/CSU, my perception is that their stance is just the opposite of Scholz' stance for tactical reasons, not out of any deep conviction.

Why Scholz is so hesitant is not clear - cautiousness, conviction, inner-party pressures, 5D chess? No one knows.

I am personally in favour of sending Taurus and don't understand why we do not do it.

[Sheilbh]

Ineresting, thanks.

It seems weird from the outside with Scholz, almost like he gets shocked by his own boldness and then has to recalibrate and start all over again.

On Taurus - I don't really get it as I think Britain and France are sending similar systems so it wouldn't be any type of escalation/shift. Just more and better and what Ukraine wants.

[Josquius]

Taurus is apparently a better bunker buster system.
Old post from a random telegram guy who I've been unable to figure out the validity of...

NO TAURUS AND NOW WE KNOW WHY

German's leader is afraid. It's that simple. He has become so afraid of Russia and its endless threats (none of which it has ever carried out), he has frightened himself into a blinkered bunker of blindness.
Everyone who is anyone in Germany seems to understand why Ukraine needs the Taurus missile.
While it is a derivative of the StormShadow and Scalp EG - the two are basically interchangeable, it's also so much more.
For one it has the range the others lack. The second benefit of Taurus is the large, capable warhead fitted with a system designed to take down heavy concrete defences. In fact it's supposed to be able to get through three layers of 1.5-3m reinforced concrete.
Guess what's made of reinforced concrete? The Kerch Bridge. Guess what Germany's cowardly lion chancellor is afraid of? Taurus missiles taking down the Putin Legacy Bridge, that monument to Russian vanity and Putin's  Crimean victory in 2014.
Putin drove over it first - in a German Mercedes - and continues to worry over its security.
Chancellor Shultz is afraid
of what Russia will do if the Ukrainians succeed using German weapons.
They'll cry, they'll shout and they'll threaten, but they won't do anything. Why would they? Germany didn't fire the weapon or target them. Giving weapons of any kind is irrelevant. It's not Germany's problem to make the decision on use.
Russia started this why does Germany feel it has to worry about what they think?
Just give Ukraine the missiles and sit back and watch them get used.  All this dithering is just playing into Russian hands. How has Shultz not learned that yet?

[Zanza]

There is no public indication that "Shultz" (sic) is afraid, but as we don't know what motivates him, this reasoning is as good as any other.

[DGuller]

Not mentioned here yet but pretty big news related to the war today.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/02/20/spain-russia-ukraine-kuminov-assassination-defector/

That Russian pilot who detected with his helicopter. Clearly whacked by Russian intelligence in Spain.
The brutality makes it like Salisbury on acid.

Hopefully it doesn't have its intended effect and deter anyone from doing the same.

I wonder why he chose Spain to live in?  I'm sure it's more comfortable weather-wise than a gulag in the Arctic, but I'm not sure it's the safer option when the Russian government really wants you dead.

[crazy canuck]

There is no public indication that "Shultz" (sic) is afraid, but as we don't know what motivates him, this reasoning is as good as any other.

Sergeant Schultz was afraid of everything, kids these days just don't know their Hogan's heroes.

[Tonitrus]

@Sheilbh: Zelenskyy fired Zaluzhnyi about 2 weeks ago, replacing him with Oleksandr Syrskyi. A move that was widely panned by soldiers themselves, to put it mildly.

I guess we can hope it will be a McClellan-to-Grant situation (not trying an American Civil War hijack, I swear!).  But very much hopefully not an Ambrose Burnside one.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Syrskyi is not without merits though since was in charge of de defense of kiev and the liberation of kharkiv and kherson or so I've heard.
But it is indeed worrisome given his nickname.
That said: I don't think Ukraine will manage without another big round of draft.
And maybe try to attract more foreigners to fight?

[The Brain]

Too bad the old mercenary market in Europe is defunct. Hiring a few divisions of mercs for Western money and sending them to Ukraine would have been sweet.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Too bad the old mercenary market in Europe is defunct. Hiring a few divisions of mercs for Western money and sending them to Ukraine would have been sweet.

Europe has 100 of thousands of illegals coming in a year, a great many of them young men of fighting age. Round them up, send them to the front.
Citizenship through service.
An new old idea for a new old world, given that the post ww2 liberal world order is basically done.