Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[The Brain]

Ordering it in a hurry to make a rout look pre-planned?

[Sheilbh]

Another remarkably magnanimous goodwill gesture, no doubt.

[Josquius]

All I've heard says it's a trap, they're withdrawing some and reinforcing with new troops.
It however does give them an excuse of that was just a small rare guard of devoted civilian militia or whatever when it falls.

[Sheilbh]

Here's the clip:
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1590368333727424512?s=46&t=WukA-4seinS2VeuUigg5dg

[Grey Fox]

All I've heard says it's a trap, they're withdrawing some and reinforcing with new troops.
It however does give them an excuse of that was just a small rare guard of devoted civilian militia or whatever when it falls.

That was yesterday's talk. This is today's news.

[Tamas]

Could still be a trap. They have been eagerly signposting their Kherson withdrawal for what has bewn a couple of weeks now.

[Barrister]

Could still be a trap. They have been eagerly signposting their Kherson withdrawal for what has bewn a couple of weeks now.

While I have no doubts the Russians will leave many booby traps behind in Kherson, I suspect the withdrawal is real.

One of the things I've taken to heart is that everything Putin's Russia does is for domestic consumption.  Putin doesn't care one whit about what the world thinks of him, internal popularity and regime survival is all that matters.

A more-or-less orderly withdrawal from Kherson, announced in advance, is less humiliating that a full-on military defeat in Kherson.  So that's what they do.

[Josquius]

Could still be a trap. They have been eagerly signposting their Kherson withdrawal for what has bewn a couple of weeks now.

While I have no doubts the Russians will leave many booby traps behind in Kherson, I suspect the withdrawal is real.

One of the things I've taken to heart is that everything Putin's Russia does is for domestic consumption.  Putin doesn't care one whit about what the world thinks of him, internal popularity and regime survival is all that matters.

A more-or-less orderly withdrawal from Kherson, announced in advance, is less humiliating that a full-on military defeat in Kherson.  So that's what they do.

For internal consumption sure.
But they're still fighting an actual war and looking for opportunities to kill Ukrainians.

[celedhring]

I don't think you can "fake" a retreat at the operational level with all the Ukrainian and NATO intel assets scrying that area.

[Barrister]

I kind of wonder if the Russians have inquired about negotiating a temporary ceasefire in order to allow for the withdrawal from Kherson.

[Sheilbh]

I kind of wonder if the Russians have inquired about negotiating a temporary ceasefire in order to allow for the withdrawal from Kherson.

The Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said today: "Russia is ready for negotiations with Ukraine given current realities."

[Barrister]

I kind of wonder if the Russians have inquired about negotiating a temporary ceasefire in order to allow for the withdrawal from Kherson.

The Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said today: "Russia is ready for negotiations with Ukraine given current realities."

Remember though: everything is done for Russian domestic consumption.  So this says to the Russian people "it's those warmongering Nazi Satanist khokhols that want to keep fighting, not us".

If Russian was serious it would be easy enough to get the message to Ukraine privately.  The two sides have negotiated several prisoner transfers, for example.

[Sheilbh]

Remember though: everything is done for Russian domestic consumption.  So this says to the Russian people "it's those warmongering Nazi Satanist khokhols that want to keep fighting, not us".

Yeah I don't fully buy that line

I agree that Russia's not really going to negotiate - but I suspect it's aimed at foreign consumption to weaken resolve to support Ukraine/present Zelensky's demands as unreasonable and to increase ambivalence in the global south who do not share the Western perspective on this war.

I also think it's probably a response/signal to Zelensky shifting his line (under US pressure - which was appropriate in my view) that he'd only negotiate if Putin was removed.

[Barrister]

I agree that Russia's not really going to negotiate - but I suspect it's aimed at foreign consumption to weaken resolve to support Ukraine/present Zelensky's demands as unreasonable and to increase ambivalence in the global south who do not share the Western perspective on this war.

I also think it's probably a response/signal to Zelensky shifting his line (under US pressure - which was appropriate in my view) that he'd only negotiate if Putin was removed.

I think Russia would happily negotiate at this point - but that they would expect to keep some or all of the territory they have under control.  And would probably expect some sanctions relief.  None of which I expect Ukraine would even listen to.

[celedhring]

Yeah, I can't see how there's a positive resolution for Russia at this point. I guess they'll amass their poor conscripts, give them shit equipment, and throw them at something in the Spring, hoping to change the narrative. But then what?

I mean they are withdrawing from a region they just triumphantly "annexed" what? One month ago?