Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Josquius]

If I was Xi I would do my utmost to de-stabilize Russia. A broken defeated Russia can be made a vassal state whilst a Russia with delusions of grandeur is harder to vassalize.

So give some token help to not alienate the public image in Russia, but do not give them help enough to win.

The war will lead to vastly increased conventional military production strength of the west also, creating the opportunity to give aid to RoC after the war is won. A shorter war where Russia is decisively defeated will perhaps not create the same urgency in the west. A longer war with outright Chinese aid to Russia will strengthen western resolve and guarantee more aid to the RoC.

In addition to eventual sanctions and their effect on a China that has seen exceptional unrest and protests over the last year.

I don't really se the upside for China in aiding Russia militarily.

Whether China want Russia to win is complicated. On the one hand yes, easier to control a defeated Russia. On the other, it is useful to have this other power causing troubles for the west.
But even if we go with  China want a defeated Russia, the longer they keep the war going the more damage they cause for the west (and to Russia).

The ship has sailed on Russia waking up the west and making Taiwan harder- here I believe China are likely kicking themselves now they see how unprepared the west was. We're in a risky time at the moment though with there being a closing door as the west ramps up production- read this morning the US is increasing shell production though it'd take them 2 years to do this.

[Threviel]

Huh? The war causes almost no damage/trouble to the west. We send some miniscule obsolescent help to Ukraine and we invest moderately in our anorectic militaries. In 10-15 years, if we continue, we'll be up to the level we should have been now. If the war ended tomorrow with a Russian loss this increase would in all probability slow down considerably.

In the end it will hopefully lead to the end of the "end of history"-politicians and we'll have some grown-ups in charge instead, but who knows.

Edit: And the loss of Russian gas/oil is a blessing since we should not have touched that shit with a pole to begin with.

[The Minsky Moment]

Yeah, the only wildcard Russia has, imhho, is China deciding to flip the switch and supplying them.


Also, that box of ammo reminds me of the sardines I ate yesterday 

How compatible are PRC-made munitions with Russian equipment?

[celedhring]

Yeah, the only wildcard Russia has, imhho, is China deciding to flip the switch and supplying them.


Also, that box of ammo reminds me of the sardines I ate yesterday 

How compatible are PRC-made munitions with Russian equipment?

Taking a cursory look it seems the PLA has been transitioning to NATO calibers since the 2000s, but I presume they should still have oozles of Soviet-era shells in storage?

[The Minsky Moment]

Taking a cursory look it seems the PLA has been transitioning to NATO calibers since the 2000s, but I presume they should still have oozles of Soviet-era shells in storage?

So a slightly different species of rust?

[Barrister]

I ran across the Twitter chatter regarding Transnistria, claiming that Ukraine is gearing up to aid Moldova in liberating it.  What seems unclear is what's driving this chatter:  is it actually a reflection of Ukraine preparing to attack it, or is it Russia preparing the ground for assault on Moldova?  It would seem insane for Russia to attack Moldova without securing the entirety of southern Ukraine first, but it has done plenty of insane things before.

I know this post is a couple of days old,but I think it has to do with the fall of Moldova's government and some leaked intelligence that Russia is trying to pull of a coup in Moldova.

A straight-up ground attack by either Russia or Ukraine seems unlikely as both as kind of occupied at the moment.

[Legbiter]

Incredible footage of a Czech company making inflatable HIMARS decoys. This probably partly explains the Russians claims to have destroyed 2000% of all systems supplied to Ukraine. 

Inflatable HIMARS decoys

[Jacob]

Incredible footage of a Czech company making inflatable HIMARS decoys. This probably partly explains the Russians claims to have destroyed 2000% of all systems supplied to Ukraine. 

Inflatable HIMARS decoys

I love it

[Legbiter]

On the flip side they look pretty good as enchiladas.

Lovely 40mm lasagna. 

[Barrister]

If I was Xi I would do my utmost to de-stabilize Russia. A broken defeated Russia can be made a vassal state whilst a Russia with delusions of grandeur is harder to vassalize.

So give some token help to not alienate the public image in Russia, but do not give them help enough to win.

The war will lead to vastly increased conventional military production strength of the west also, creating the opportunity to give aid to RoC after the war is won. A shorter war where Russia is decisively defeated will perhaps not create the same urgency in the west. A longer war with outright Chinese aid to Russia will strengthen western resolve and guarantee more aid to the RoC.

In addition to eventual sanctions and their effect on a China that has seen exceptional unrest and protests over the last year.

I don't really se the upside for China in aiding Russia militarily.

Whether China want Russia to win is complicated. On the one hand yes, easier to control a defeated Russia. On the other, it is useful to have this other power causing troubles for the west.
But even if we go with  China want a defeated Russia, the longer they keep the war going the more damage they cause for the west (and to Russia).

The ship has sailed on Russia waking up the west and making Taiwan harder- here I believe China are likely kicking themselves now they see how unprepared the west was. We're in a risky time at the moment though with there being a closing door as the west ramps up production- read this morning the US is increasing shell production though it'd take them 2 years to do this.

I'm pretty confident China does not want a defeated Russia.

They would much prefer a relatively strong Russia which worries the US/Europe, giving China free reign in Asia / global south.  I do not believe they have any territorial ambitions in Siberia or anywhere else besides the ones they already claim (Taiwan, south china sea, bits of India).  Besides Russia is already happy to sell China anything they want, no questions asked.

But like I said they'd rather the West was focused on Russia, not China - and to what extent would giving arms to Russia bring the West's attention back on them?

[Josquius]

Incredible footage of a Czech company making inflatable HIMARS decoys. This probably partly explains the Russians claims to have destroyed 2000% of all systems supplied to Ukraine. 

Inflatable HIMARS decoys

For a decade or two after the war ends Ukrainian kids are going to be getting these showing up at birthday parties.

[Sheilbh]

Incredible footage of a Czech company making inflatable HIMARS decoys. This probably partly explains the Russians claims to have destroyed 2000% of all systems supplied to Ukraine. 

Inflatable HIMARS decoys

I love it

Same - that's amazing

[The Larch]

The UN's general assembly has voted on a resolution demanding Russia to withdraw from Ukraine's territory and calling for a negotiated peace. It passed overwhelmingly, with only a few countries voting against it (7 in total, including Russia, Belarus, Syria and North Korea, as well as other global malcontents) and 32 abstantions (notably including China, South Africa and India, as well as many former Soviet countries).

[mongers]

It's happening.

War in our time. Again.

A little surreal that we will be commenting the Russian invasion of Ukraine. What would 1989 you think of that?

Back on page 115 of this 534 page thread we had the invasion start, one year ago today, well in a couple more hours for the exact anniversary. 

Thoughts on the next year's likely events?

I can see Putin eventually dialling back on the victory at all cost approach and instead hedgehogging through to the end of 2024, in the hope that Trump wins and in a fenzy of Trumpian ego inflation, they strike a 'grand bargain' involving Trump selling Ukraine down the river in his quest for higher domestic ratings.

[grumbler]

Incredible footage of a Czech company making inflatable HIMARS decoys. This probably partly explains the Russians claims to have destroyed 2000% of all systems supplied to Ukraine. 

Inflatable HIMARS decoys

Interesting, but my impression is that most modern recon /targeting systems use IR as well as visual.  Battle Damage Assessment is also unlikely to be fooled.

So, a good idea, but not one anyone should count on working.  Lots of WW2 decoy stuff fooled no one.