Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Ukraine will end up liberating Rostov and Belgorod at this rate

[Tamas]

This Russian youtuber following news live and translating: https://youtu.be/RvbyY2zSsDI

A district military commander south of Rostov (apparently former Prigozhin protege) where the local Wagner HQ is posted/did on TV a call for Wagner troops to "stop the convoys" and obey the commander in chief.

Also he was just listening to another 3-star general according to the guy pleading for 5 minutes on a cellphone camera to ask Wagner troops to stop.

[viper37]

Lots of talks of open war/mutiny by Wagner against Russian high command.

Evguéni Prigojine accuses the Russian high command of bombarding his troops, Russian Ministry of Defense denies, Putin is investigating the "mutiny".

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66005256

[Sheilbh]

Couple of those vids here of generals appealing for Wagner soldiers to follow the MoD/Putin's orders and not follow Prigozhin's. If nothing else it feels like this definitely means something is going on (and possibly serious?):
https://twitter.com/aldin_aba/status/1672356965392039938?s=20

"Obey the will and orders of the elected president of Russia, stop the columns, turn back to base, and solve all our problems peacefully under the leadership of the commander-in-chief of Russia"

[DGuller]

  Okay, maybe it wasn't an act after all.  What the fucking fuck?

[Josquius]

I wonder about Ukraines response.

I don't think it's the case at all, but this would be a great thing to have the Ukrainians believe is tearing Russia apart when it isn't, draw them out of their current seemingly paused careful advanced.

Fingers crossed wagner troops are thoroughly indoctrinated /scared of wagner and everything is as bad as it seems for Russia.

[Tamas]

I wonder about Ukraines response.

I don't think it's the case at all, but this would be a great thing to have the Ukrainians believe is tearing Russia apart when it isn't, draw them out of their current seemingly paused careful advanced.

Fingers crossed wagner troops are thoroughly indoctrinated /scared of wagner and everything is as bad as it seems for Russia.

There is absolutely zero chance the Russian state is pretending to be in a state of total turmoil and on the very verge of a coup/civil war just to faint Ukraine into an ill-advised offensive.

[Sheilbh]

Also I don't think Wagner troops would need to be indoctrinated/scared of Wagner. They've been sent into a meat grinder to die (as have many conscripts/normal Russian soldiers) by an incompetent military command in a pointless war. Don't think you'd necessarily need indoctrination or fear to be raging at the men in Moscow.

Meanwhile Prigozhin is appealing for the national guard troops to join him.

[HVC]

Guess the army turned on Wagner to shut them down and it turned out badly for them?

[Barrister]

All I can think is that Pirgozhin had finally run out of rope and was about to be arrested so he's playing the only card he can - attempt a coup.

I always figured that the only lasting peace would come from some kind of Russian collapse so here's hoping this is it.  Remember the 1991 coup wasn't successful, but was still what sparked the collapse of the USSR.

Does the FSB and Rosguardia stay loyal to Putin or stay on the sidelines?  There's also the Russian National Guard, which is yet another separate military or para-military forces supposedly that reports directly to Putin, and has been described as his "praetorian Guard".

It's midnight now in Russia, but let's see what the morning brings.

[Legbiter]

General Surovikin (guy in charge of moskal army efforts in Ukraine before being replaced with Gerasimov) in a recorded appeal to Wagnerites to lay down arms. Cradling an assault rifle and looking like he's been up for 3 days.

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1672356275743588353

Looks like Priggy got wind of his imminent purge and acted hastily.   Still, it takes Wagner off the board and does immense damage to the internal perception of Putin. 

[Legbiter]

Ukrainians have to be overjoyed by this and will take full advantage.

[Tamas]

All I can think is that Pirgozhin had finally run out of rope and was about to be arrested so he's playing the only card he can - attempt a coup.

I always figured that the only lasting peace would come from some kind of Russian collapse so here's hoping this is it.  Remember the 1991 coup wasn't successful, but was still what sparked the collapse of the USSR.

Does the FSB and Rosguardia stay loyal to Putin or stay on the sidelines?  There's also the Russian National Guard, which is yet another separate military or para-military forces supposedly that reports directly to Putin, and has been described as his "praetorian Guard".

It's midnight now in Russia, but let's see what the morning brings.

Yeah, unconfirmed reports but allegedly there was an attempt to arrest him earlier yesterday while he was in St Petersburg, which he evaded. I guess if true that's what prompted this.

[HVC]

[FunkMonk]

Starting this war has got to be like a top 5 all time worst military blunder, right?