Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Valmy]

Starting this war has got to be like a top 5 all time worst military blunder, right?

And it was obviously so even before they did it.

I still cannot believe Putin did this.

Russia was a dying country and he needed to do lots of triage to fully restore it to health and give it a future. Any progress he may have made since 1999 has been flushed down the drain by this absurd move. Russia desperately needed every one of its young people and instead of encouraging them to stay in Russia and have families and careers he has driven over a million into exile and sent thousands of others to die. And for what? What good does the Crimea and the Donbas do Russia? It boggles the mind.

There just are not any happy endings in Russia ever.

And the situation for Ukraine was, if anything, even worse. Both countries will be in dire straights once this is over.

[Sheilbh]

Said before around the random deaths, car bombs etc - from what I've read, Putin's key claim and source of legitimacy was ending the chaos of the 90s.

It feels like that's definitively over now, whatever happens.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I will obviously wait and see, but I suspect that if anything is really happening right now, it's limited to the Rostov area, Prigozhin is making some sort of play probably to try to make Russian MOD back off and not arrest him. I find claims of a "march of Justice" to Moscow to be highly specious.

For one, the fatal flaw here is while it has held back a lot in Ukraine, Russia has an air force and Wagner does not. Any Wagner force marching on Moscow would be entirely defenseless to air attack, it would be a massacre.

[DGuller]

I imagine the name of the game is to snowball defections.  No one wants to be an Afghan army after US withdrawal.

[Razgovory]

It is pleasant, when the sea is high and the winds are dashing the waves about, to watch from the shores the struggles of another

[Jacob]

Any news on what Kadyrov and his fuckheads are up to?

[mongers]

Any news on what Kadyrov and his fuckheads are up to?

Getting drunk and/or torturing some random people/animals/other Russians.

[Grey Fox]

Any news on what Kadyrov and his fuckheads are up to?

The TikTok Brigade is stationed in Taganrog.

[Jacob]

Things look a little chaotic right now:

🚨 Special Operations Forces (SSO) commanded by Major General Valery Flustikov have taken over control of the Ministry of Defence headquarters on Frunzenskaya in Moscow. Right now, there's no way of knowing whose side he is really on: Shoigu or Prigozhin. Probably "wait & see."

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1672352313091178496

[Grey Fox]

Interesting but Sushko regularly makes things up.

[Jacob]

Interesting but Sushko regularly makes things up.

Oh right, good point.

But... like... if someone in the Russian armed forces sees this and believes it can still harm Russian efforts, even if not true. But yeah, fair enough.

It's 0630 in Moscow right now. Wonder what the situation will be by nightfall.

[Razgovory]

I'm surprised Putin hasn't made an official statement.  I'm seeing stuff about Wagners surrounding the HQ of the Southern Military District.  Nobody seems to know what is going on, and there are all sorts of wild claims going back and forth.

[Jacob]

Putin making a statement and fucking it up - by looking weak - could mean the end for him in short order. Of course, hiding and looking weak and cowardly could do the same.

What he needs to do is to appear, make a strong statement, hammering home a resolution, and punishing the designated traitors (whoever they may be). But if he can't be decisive and powerful in his appearance... well... it's a bit of a dilemma for him.

[DGuller]

Putin doesn't strike me as quick on his feet, he seems much more the type to take part in elaborately choreographed performances.  Maybe he's vacillating as to what to do.  Maybe he's not in condition to be on camera right now for health reasons.

[jimmy olsen]

Things look a little chaotic right now:

🚨 Special Operations Forces (SSO) commanded by Major General Valery Flustikov have taken over control of the Ministry of Defence headquarters on Frunzenskaya in Moscow. Right now, there's no way of knowing whose side he is really on: Shoigu or Prigozhin. Probably "wait & see."

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1672352313091178496

Seems bad if I'm Putin

Video of Yevgeny Prigozhin meeting with Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-bek Yevkurov at the Southern Military District HQ.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1672463016586014720?