Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Legbiter]

Multipolarbros having a bad day on social media...

[Syt]

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-66007068

Putin: These actions 'a knife in the back of our people'

President Putin has spoken for the first time since the Wagner mercenary group vowed to topple Russia's military leadership.

In an address, he urged the consolidation of all forces and said the actions were "a betrayal" and "a knife in the back of our people".

[Legbiter]

Seems Wagner is making a straight beeline to Moscow...

Normally 1st tank army should be in the way but it's somewhere else at the moment.

[FunkMonk]

Should we support the Whites or the Reds?

[Sheilbh]

Via Luke Harding, the Guardian's Russia reporter, video of Wagner in Voronezh:
https://twitter.com/tendar/status/1672517189142806529?s=46&t=o9GOIj6BKKcLcHiyQTlAoA

Seems that in Putin's lockdown with history books about why Ukraine doesn't exist, he also learned that if there's one thing that secures Russian regimes it's unpopular, badly executed wars 

[Legbiter]

Should we support the Whites or the Reds?

Both. None.


OSINT types on twitter are starting to post sitreps showing territory controlled by Wagner. 

[Duque de Bragança]

Should we support the Whites or the Reds?

Both. None.

It's not like the Whites supported each other effectively. Not to mention their different patrons. 

[Josquius]

What even are the sides in this war? Blacks and browns?

[Duque de Bragança]

Makhno's black army cannot support the Whites and does not trust much the Bolsheviks. 

[Sheilbh]

Incidentally on the "stab in the back", the text of Putin's statement. Which is extraordinary and suggests seriousness of the situation:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/24/vladimir-putin-russia-wagner-statement-full

The stab in the back comparison is that Prigozhin and Wagner are Lenin and the Bolsheviks (who also, in Putin's narrative, "created" Ukraine). Not the key point now but what is Russian memory of WW1? Putin described it as the Bolsheviks stabbing Russia in the back, preventing them from achieving victory. Obviously that makes hi. The Tsar or Kerensky, which isn't obviously flattering, but is that how Russians remember WW1? That they were on the brink of victory etc? Not sure I'd read anything like that, but could imagine it from an anti-Soviet post-Cold War mindset?

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Should we support the Whites or the Reds?

The blue-and-gold of course

[jimmy olsen]

Putin consulted the Oracle of Delphi before the war and they told him a great capital would fall in 3 days

[mongers]

I fear this brings the use of tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine significantly closer, because if there's a general collapse of Russian frontlines, Ukrainians advance and Putin is face with having to 'save' something from the disaster, so maybe he uses nukes at the gates of the Crimea?   

[Eddie Teach]

This.

[Legbiter]

I fear this brings the use of tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine significantly closer, because if there's a general collapse of Russian frontlines, Ukrainians advance and Putin is face with having to 'save' something from the disaster, so maybe he uses nukes at the gates of the Crimea? 

Rostov is the command center for the war and is currently under Wagner control so unlikely. Also you have to have something to nuke like 3 concentrated Ukrainian divisions or something. Ukrainians are unlikely to present the vatniks with a juicy target like that.