Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Jacob]

Here's a map of where the explosion occurred, with other rail links showing as well:

[Jacob]

saw it too. pretty interesting if the UA can strike so deep.

Yeah.

Presumably they have a number of people in their ranks who speak fluent Russian and can blend into Russia. They may also be able to recruit dissenters within Russia.

[Legbiter]

No Chinese logistics for you.

[Jacob]

At the start of the war I did wonder how Russia would protect itself if determined Ukrainians attempted to strike at critical infrastructure - say oil and gas pipelines or rail lines - in the remoter parts of Siberia. It's a lot of real estate to cover, and the implications for Russian supplies and the Russian economy are non-trivial, I'd think.

[Josquius]

Worth remembering Russia is super rail reliant too. I don't think it even has a fully paved road crossing the whole country.
Knock out the trans siberian in a few key places and you absolutely screw their logistics.

Two places hit I've read. One the main tunnel linking to China

[Zoupa]

It is worth noting that Budnaov's wife has been poisoned recently.

Budanov is the head of Ukrainian military intelligence, fyi.

Not saying it's related, but maybe the timeline was accelerated.

[DGuller]

The story about Budanov's wife is concerning.  From what I've read, his wife stayed in the headquarters for her protection, and that others also suffered some symptoms of poisoning.  That probably means that she wasn't the intended target, and it also means that the Russians managed to get heavy metals into the HQ of Ukraine's intelligence agency.  That's bad news.

[Maladict]

A Russian general died after stepping on a land mine. A Russian land mine.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

A Russian general died after stepping on a land mine. A Russian land mine.

the Russians should mark their landmines with windows so they'll know to stay away

[Jacob]

Seems like another train exploded in Buratiya: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/12/1/7431210/

[Jacob]

Came across a fun little conspiracy theory that makes a bit of sense to me... but it's still a conspiracy theory.

The theory is basically that Putin is dead and all public appearances are by his double, while folks like Patruschev run things from behind the scenes. That's a pretty garden variety theory, I think. The additional bit is that Putin died around the time of the push against Bakhmut and that Prigozhin's march on Moscow was a bid to position himself in the post-Putin order.

To me that makes Prigozhin's actions - marching on Moscow, backing down, thinking he could continue to operate normally after coming at Putin - make significantly more sense.

[DGuller]

I figure that for such a conspiracy, the US has to be in on it as well.  I can't imagine in what context they wouldn't want to blow the whistle on this scheme.  If Biden could basically livestream Russian preparations for war for the whole world for several months, then I imagine he would also know about a little thing like Putin dying.

[Valmy]

Came across a fun little conspiracy theory that makes a bit of sense to me... but it's still a conspiracy theory.

The theory is basically that Putin is dead and all public appearances are by his double, while folks like Patruschev run things from behind the scenes. That's a pretty garden variety theory, I think. The additional bit is that Putin died around the time of the push against Bakhmut and that Prigozhin's march on Moscow was a bid to position himself in the post-Putin order.

To me that makes Prigozhin's actions - marching on Moscow, backing down, thinking he could continue to operate normally after coming at Putin - make significantly more sense.

Oh yeah I have heard that one for years.

Having people die and then be replaced by an identical double is a pretty common conspiracy theory. Like supposedly Paul McCartney died in 1966 and his identical body double wrote Hey Jude, Let it Be, and Live and Let Die. Pretty talented body double.

I don't know if finding a person who looks and acts the same as somebody else is as easy as conspiracy theorists seem to think.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

it's easier if you add a conspiracy that cloning is already possible

[Josquius]

Came across a fun little conspiracy theory that makes a bit of sense to me... but it's still a conspiracy theory.

The theory is basically that Putin is dead and all public appearances are by his double, while folks like Patruschev run things from behind the scenes. That's a pretty garden variety theory, I think. The additional bit is that Putin died around the time of the push against Bakhmut and that Prigozhin's march on Moscow was a bid to position himself in the post-Putin order.

To me that makes Prigozhin's actions - marching on Moscow, backing down, thinking he could continue to operate normally after coming at Putin - make significantly more sense.

Mentioned this one a week or two back.
Putin dead is a huge stretch but that he is increasingly making use of doubles does seem certain. The story about messing up the Kazakh leaders name is particularly weird.