Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Valmy]

You've probably all seen the news of the 64 km long column of Russian armoured vehicles, now ~25 km from the centre of Kyev.

Looks like the city fighting and the real atrocities are about to begin

Just supplying that number of vehicles is going to be an impressive feat of logistics. We will see what happens.

[PDH]

Maybe wise to sometimes question what the Ukrainians are saying?

It is wise to always scrutinize missives in times of war.  Here, the message of resistance is not lost with the change in status of the defenders which to me shows something - the propaganda of one side, enhanced no doubt quite often, seems intended to raise morale at home.  The other side is intent on cynical lying to provide those who are weak a way out, to hide evil deeds, and to raise doubts to hide their actions.

[Jacob]

It is wise to always scrutinize missives in times of war.  Here, the message of resistance is not lost with the change in status of the defenders which to me shows something - the propaganda of one side, enhanced no doubt quite often, seems intended to raise morale at home.  The other side is intent on cynical lying to provide those who are weak a way out, to hide evil deeds, and to raise doubts to hide their actions.

Well said

[Malthus]

Turns out the border guards on snake island didn't die to a man, seems they ran out of ammunition and were forced to surrender, all 13 apparently alive:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60554959

Snake Island: Ukraine says troops who swore at Russian warship are alive

Ukraine's navy says the 13 soldiers believed to have been killed defending Zmiinyi (Snake) Island on the first day of the Russian invasion are alive.

The border guards were given posthumous honours by the president after they were heard in audio recordings telling a Russian warship to "go to hell".

Russia said at the time that the troops on the island surrendered.

On Monday, the Ukrainian Naval Forces confirmed in a Facebook post that "our brothers-in-arms are alive and well".

The border guards and marines on the island "twice bravely repulsed the attacks of the Russian occupiers" but were unable to continue fighting because they ran out of ammunition, it said.

Maybe wise to sometimes question what the Ukrainians are saying?

My understanding, which could be wrong, is that the Ukrainian military said they were presumed dead, because they lost any contact with them. Later, it turned out they were captured, not killed.

If this is the case, it is simply a matter of the fog of war. We as observers can't know the truth in real time, because no one does.

[Valmy]

Yeah all claims in wartime have to be taken with a grain of salt. Not only are the facts on the ground hard to know due to fog of war but both militaries have lots of reasons to keep important information from getting out.

[DGuller]

That column heading to Kyiv seems to grow by a couple of miles with every mention.  Hopefully it's a case of a mile-to-kilometer conversion compounded a few times too many, and not an accurate measurement.  Just what exactly can you pack into so many miles of bumper-to-bumper convoy?

[Valmy]

That column heading to Kyiv seems to grow by a couple of miles with every mention.  Hopefully it's a case of a mile-to-kilometer conversion compounded a few times too many, and not an accurate measurement.  Just what exactly can you pack into so many miles of bumper-to-bumper convoy?

It is starting to sound increasingly like the massive convoy of illegal immigrants that was very slowly approaching the US border right before the 2018 election and then mysteriously vanished right after we voted.

[Razgovory]

Props to the Euros for really coming through on this.  I don't think the European governments expected this to animate their constituents to this extent.  The public doesn't give a shit about leveraged debt and Russian banks.  They just know this is wrong.  I hope governments in the future remember this.  Including the US government.

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

But then again, I don't think we can act based on the fear the Putin goes unhinged - except maybe to make contacts at the upper tiers and let senior leaders know that if they stop Putin from going nuclear over trivialities, we'll play ball.

Yeah, I'm thinking (hoping?) the palace coup option would step in to stop that.  I expect that this particular situation has crossed China's mind as well, and that they are quietly laying the groundwork in case Putin needs to be removed in a hurry.

[jimmy olsen]

Documented (photo or video) losses still 2 to 1 in Ukraine's favor.

Russia - 329, of which: destroyed: 147, damaged: 7, abandoned: 72, captured: 101

Ukraine - 149, of which: destroyed: 53, damaged: 4, abandoned: 38, captured: 52

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html?m=1
Oryx

[Zanza]

You've probably all seen the news of the 64 km long column of Russian armoured vehicles, now ~25 km from the centre of Kyev.

Looks like the city fighting and the real atrocities are about to begin

Just supplying that number of vehicles is going to be an impressive feat of logistics. We will see what happens.

In civilian life, letting all your vehicles go via one route, creating a huge traffic jam, does not seem wise and certainly no logistical masterclass.

No idea if it makes sense for the military though to provide air defence or so.

But even then, when closing in on your target, you have to spread the frontline, right? They will need rather good traffic management to get everybody in place once reaching Kyiv outskirts.

[Syt]

Well, this is a strongly worded message: https://twitter.com/AdamParkhomenko/status/1498023164936400903?s=20&t=JxuQaqgvFbXMyARkksV6eA

[Jacob]

In civilian life, letting all your vehicles go via one route, creating a huge traffic jam, does not seem wise and certainly no logistical masterclass.

No idea if it makes sense for the military though to provide air defence or so.

But even then, when closing in on your target, you have to spread the frontline, right? They will need rather good traffic management to get everybody in place once reaching Kyiv outskirts.

There is the thing where if Ukranians manage to take out a few of the front vehicles, a whole lot of other vehicles are going to be inconvenienced. But I'm assuming the Russians are driving in a convoy to give them better protection.

[The Brain]

If you go by different routes you need to tell units where they're supposed to go and you need to coordinate forces in time and space. You can't just order guys to follow the truck in front of them.

[Jacob]

Well, this is a strongly worded message: https://twitter.com/AdamParkhomenko/status/1498023164936400903?s=20&t=JxuQaqgvFbXMyARkksV6eA

Yeah, not a whole lot of minced words there.