Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Macron entioned the possibility of western troops in Ukraine. So it's no longer a 0 percent probability.

[Josquius]

That would be incredibly stupid of the vatniks there, as Ukraine could mop them up in a week.

So definitely a possibility.

It'd be a good thing for Ukraine I guess. Gives an excuse for Moldova to allow them in and then that reduces the numbers Ukraine needs to base on the border.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

That would be incredibly stupid of the vatniks there, as Ukraine could mop them up in a week.

So definitely a possibility.

It'd be a good thing for Ukraine I guess. Gives an excuse for Moldova to allow them in and then that reduces the numbers Ukraine needs to be base on the border.

And if they're quick about it they might gain access to the ammo dumps there

[Sheilbh]

Macron entioned the possibility of western troops in Ukraine. So it's no longer a 0 percent probability.

Yeah - sort of. He said it was a possibility that couldn't be ruled out. Scholz today, from his new position as Supreme Commander of Europe and NATO:

Bundeskanzler Olaf Scholz
@Bundeskanzler
We agreed that everyone must do more for Ukraine in Paris yesterday. Ukraine needs weapons, ammunition and air defence. We are working on it. It is clear: there will be no ground troops from European countries or NATO. That applies.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

A lot of earlier noes have become yesses in the past two years. We'll see

[Barrister]

I mean - NATO grounds troops in Ukraine fighting Russians basically means we're at war with Russia.

While "a lot of noes have become yesses" I feel like that's one what is a pretty hard line to cross.

[Sheilbh]

I mean - NATO grounds troops in Ukraine fighting Russians basically means we're at war with Russia.

While "a lot of noes have become yesses" I feel like that's one what is a pretty hard line to cross.

I don't disagree to a point. Macron's line was that there is no consensus on ground troops "but dynamically, nothing must be excluded". He then added that "we will do whatever it takes to ensure that Russia cannot win this war".

I have seen Gerard Araud - former French Ambassador to the US and Macronversteher extraordinaire - comment that he is "convinced that we have gone too far in our support to accept a defeat of Ukraine. I would bet on a European military intervention in the case of a Russian breakthrough towards Kyiv. Of course, I may be wrong."

[Grey Fox]

I mean - NATO grounds troops in Ukraine fighting Russians basically means we're at war with Russia.

While "a lot of noes have become yesses" I feel like that's one what is a pretty hard line to cross.

It's already at war with us maybe we should do more about that.

Also, that's basically what Macron said multiple noes became yesses. He mentions that troops aren't a different no.

« Beaucoup de gens qui disent "Jamais, jamais" aujourd'hui étaient les mêmes qui disaient "Jamais des tanks, jamais des avions, jamais des missiles à longue portée" il y a deux ans »

[Tamas]

Yeah I mean what can you say to that. If he says under no circumstance Europe will send troops that means Putin can ignore European threats.

[The Minsky Moment]

The bigger point is that the purpose of arming Ukraine to the teeth is to allow them to succeed and thus eliminate any eventuality where more direct intervention might be needed to prevent disaster.

I.e. if your sole concern is making sure NATO nation troops don't get killed, you should support more aid now, not less.

[OttoVonBismarck]

European unilateral deployment to Ukraine without America leading would probably shock me more than if a large asteroid hit earth later today.

[Legbiter]

Yeah I mean what can you say to that. If he says under no circumstance Europe will send troops that means Putin can ignore European threats.

Yes in this case you can't really negotiate/deter if you are perceived as having no backbone.

[Duque de Bragança]

Macron entioned the possibility of western troops in Ukraine. So it's no longer a 0 percent probability.

Zupiter is notorious for his gaffes and contradicting himself every now and then, so his statements are best taken with a huge grain of salt. 

[Sheilbh]

European unilateral deployment to Ukraine without America leading would probably shock me more than if a large asteroid hit earth later today.

Maybe - given Araud's statement, I suspect the Elysee and Quai d'Orsay are at least talking about it.

But I think this is to an extent Fico's spoiling in action. He spoke about it with concern, that meant Macron had to address it - which he did, correctly. But also to Scholz stating Germany's position (on behalf of the entire West). All in all sowing a bit of dissension.

[DGuller]

Do NATO countries allow fighter pilots to take their planes with them on vacation?  If Russians can vacation with their Buk missiles, why can't Europeans vacation with their F-16s?