Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Jacob]

Russia needs de-militarization and de-nazification.

[Admiral Yi]

Attempted compromise.    Come on Yi, "de-nazification" and "de-militarisation". In other words they'd let Ukraine become a Russian vassal state, their leadership appointed by Russia.

Those words have very little concrete meaning.  They could range in practice from, as you described, emasculation of the Ukrainian state, to some fig leaf gestures for Putin to save face.

[Duque de Bragança]

They still imply more than mere finlandisation of Ukraine.

[Jacob]

Those words have very little concrete meaning.  They could range in practice from, as you described, emasculation of the Ukrainian state, to some fig leaf gestures for Putin to save face.

That's kind of true.

I guess Ukraine (and the West) could agree that Ukraine should "de-militarize" and "de-Nazify" in theory, and then in practice interpret that to strengthen the Ukrainian state. "De-militarize" means upping military capabilities to resist Russian advances (but no Western missiles stationed in Ukraine) and "de-Nazify" means strengthening democratic institutions significantly. And then we look Putin square in the eyes and say "you want to do anything about it and get humiliated... again?"

[Admiral Yi]

You guys are missing my point.  I'm not saying what an awesome deal, Ukraine should jump at it.  I'm saying Putin might be trying to step back from his full regime change/puppet state original goals.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I would agree with Yi, as a first negotiating position it does suggest there's some wiggle room with Putin. The longer the war goes on it is likely better for Ukraine's bargaining position, but the entire thing is predicated on Ukrainians being willing to fight even as the costs increase.

[Sheilbh]

You guys are missing my point.  I'm not saying what an awesome deal, Ukraine should jump at it.  I'm saying Putin might be trying to step back from his full regime change/puppet state original goals.

I'm less sure - those are the same points he made on day one. There may be wiggle room within them but I don't see any shift in his stated objectives especially in the context of "unconditional consideration" of those demands.

I can't see a fig-leaf approach to de-militarisation and de-Nazification. How does that work: "we've reduced the Ukrainian regime to an acceptable level of Nazism"? De-Nazification is the core of his regime change point - that Ukraine's regime is neo-Nazi and engaged in genocide.

De-militarisation there's more scope but it's still pretty broad - especially after the Russians more or less stole Ukraine's navy in 2014. I'm not sure what's left beyond a limit on troops, or the types/modernity of weapons.

[Admiral Yi]

I can't see a fig-leaf approach to de-militarisation and de-Nazification. How does that work: "we've reduced the Ukrainian regime to an acceptable level of Nazism"? De-Nazification is the core of his regime change point - that Ukraine's regime is neo-Nazi and engaged in genocide.

"The Ukrainian government has signed a treaty that they will from now on treat Russian speaking inhabitants with dignity and respect, and guarantee their full human rights."

[Jacob]

In any case, it's up to Ukraine to accept or reject the terms. We, in the West, should support them and follow through on our collective realization about the nature of Putin's regime (i.e. increase military budgets, actively disentangle ourselves from dependency on Russia etc).

Also, while a good measure of the sanctions against Russia should probably be lifted on Ukraine's say-so (say all the sports related ones), I think lifting things like the financial sanctions by EU members and the US may need to be predicated on further negoations between Russia and us. What guarantees are Putin (or his successor) willing to give us that they won't pull shit like this in the future? Because even if Putin right this moment went "oh, my bad, everybody back to base" I don't think that's enough to lift sanctions. And Putin is quite obviously not ready to do that.

[Sahib]

Random thought: could the distancing be an attempt to assuage fears of assassination also?

I've read that theory in other places, but it doesn't make sense to me.  I'm sure no one is going to go into these meetings with a Kalashnikov slung over their shoulder, I'm sure Putin's security will make everyone check that stuff in at the entrance.  What is anyone going to do, strangle the guy trained in martial arts?

What if they bring a bomb in a briefcase? 

[Sheilbh]

"The Ukrainian government has signed a treaty that they will from now on treat Russian speaking inhabitants with dignity and respect, and guarantee their full human rights."

Yeah I just don't think if your case for war to your people is that Ukraine's regime is riddled with actual Nazis and they're committing genocide that a treaty commitment (which Russia already had in Minsk) is a plausible compromise.

[DGuller]

Honestly, I think it would be good for Ukraine to pull back a little on their language laws.  Most of Ukrainians in videos from the fighting speak Russian, Russian speakers have definitely proven that they're Ukrainian just as much as the Ukrainian speakers.

[The Minsky Moment]

I doubt Putin is sincere about a fair negotiated resolution, but if it was a possibility, I doubt that his silly rhetoric about nazis would be the critical stumbling block.

[Admiral Yi]

Yeah I just don't think if your case for war to your people is that Ukraine's regime is riddled with actual Nazis and they're committing genocide that a treaty commitment (which Russia already had in Minsk) is a plausible compromise.

Putin has shown an ability to convince the Russian people of almost anything.

Leaving that aside, further factors that support the thesis that Putin is ratcheting down are that the battle is not going swimmingly for Russia, and that he was the one to initiate negotiations, rather than dictating terms with troops in the Ukrainian presidential palace.

[Jacob]

[fake news deleted]