Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Jacob]

Yeah it looks like it's happening. This is a defining moment of our time.

[Razgovory]

It's mind-boggling that Zelensky is still planning on leaving the country on the eve of invasion.  It looks either criminally stupid or criminally cowardly on his part.

He doesn't want to die.  The Russians may start this with a decapitation strike.

[Sheilbh]

There's been a few of these videos by the FCDO and MoD - but this one by the FCDO from tonight is pretty striking:
https://twitter.com/FCDOGovUK/status/1494723791393632260?s=20&t=6oxB_ZLjd-ylMaws_BRMAA

I can't think of another way of doing things but it is really interesting to see Western governments saying they think there'll be a pretext and what the most likely ones are. As I say I don't know how much it'll work or if it's a long-term solution but it's a really interesting way to try and deal with the information war and to reduce the "grey space" that Russia can operate in.

[FunkMonk]

How long could we reasonably expect Ukraine to hold back the Russians before they are overrun?

[mongers]

How long could we reasonably expect Ukraine to hold back the Russians before they are overrun?

Weeks/months, if they have even half the metal of the Chechens.

[DGuller]

How long could we reasonably expect Ukraine to hold back the Russians before they are overrun?

Weeks/months, if they have even half the metal of the Chechens.

That's not a fair comparison.  Chechens are fierce warriors, that's pretty much their culture, and the terrain is very conducive to guerilla warfare.  Ukrainian terrain is very conducive to blitzkrieg, for the attacker.

[mongers]

How long could we reasonably expect Ukraine to hold back the Russians before they are overrun?

Weeks/months, if they have even half the metal of the Chechens.

That's not a fair comparison.  Chechens are fierce warriors, that's pretty much their culture, and the terrain is very conducive to guerilla warfare.  Ukrainian terrain is very conducive to blitzkrieg, for the attacker.

Urban warfare across the world has more similarities as compared to the two landscapes you mention.

[KRonn]

How long could we reasonably expect Ukraine to hold back the Russians before they are overrun?

From what I've seen reported, Russians will have a huge advantage in air power and artillery. Ukraine has limited air defense capability, shoulder fired stinger missiles but not too much of the larger, more powerful anti-air defense systems. Maybe the West should have been giving them such systems and training them.

Ukraine has been getting a lot of anti-tank equipment and small arms but I don't know how much of the heavier artillery and armor they have. Ukraine has several hundred thousand military members, active and reserves and have called up reserves. But I assume the Russian forces have more sophisticated weapons, electronics, missiles which will negate some of the Ukrainian numbers.

Ukraine has been in a low key border conflict against Russian activity/encroachment for some years so they must have at least some good experience, but so do Russian forces. US and I assume other nation's trainers have been there for a while though I haven't heard what kind of training has been going on.

[DGuller]

Urban warfare across the world has more similarities as compared to the two landscapes you mention.

Chechens didn't really resist in the urban warfare.  Yes, the initial attack on Grozny went very badly for the Russians, but that was nothing a million or two artillery shells couldn't fix.  The mountains is where Chechen guerilla warfare really took its toll, and you can argue that Russia never won that war and instead decided to bribe the guerillas.

[KRonn]

Yeah it looks like it's happening. This is a defining moment of our time.

This has probably been discussed but I haven't read all of this forum. Unless Putin just wants to or feels a need to conquer a portion of Ukraine, I would think this is a conflict that could be avoided. Putin has been insisting that Ukraine can not become a NATO member. If that was his main issue then of course it's not really a problem since at least some NATO countries don't want Ukraine to be a member. And I can understand Putin's point of not having more NATO nations on his border.

All that said though, it appears obvious that Putin wants more than just a buffer between Russia and NATO. He wants part of Ukraine or even to bring Ukraine back into Russia as a part of bringing other former Soviet republics into Russia. That's something he has talked about and seems determined on, but obviously it's a very tough path for him and Russia.

[HVC]

If russias real concern is having nato on its border then taking a chunk of Ukraine and thus moving its border closer to NATO seems counterproductive

[Admiral Yi]

If russias real concern is having nato on its border then taking a chunk of Ukraine and thus moving its border closer to NATO seems counterproductive

Well, they would be next to Hungary, which is fake NATO.

Heard on NPR that these troops on the border are 60% of Russia's troop strength.

[Legbiter]

From what I've seen reported, Russians will have a huge advantage in air power and artillery. Ukraine has limited air defense capability, shoulder fired stinger missiles but not too much of the larger, more powerful anti-air defense systems. Maybe the West should have been giving them such systems and training them.

Yeah any Ukrainian military formations will be obliterated by artillery and air power if the Russians decide to invade. They'll be annihilated like the Iraqi divisions were in Gulf War II. Getting in will be the easy part for the Russians.

[HVC]

If russias real concern is having nato on its border then taking a chunk of Ukraine and thus moving its border closer to NATO seems counterproductive

Well, they would be next to Hungary, which is fake NATO.

Heard on NPR that these troops on the border are 60% of Russia's troop strength.

You have Romania and Poland too

[HVC]

From what I've seen reported, Russians will have a huge advantage in air power and artillery. Ukraine has limited air defense capability, shoulder fired stinger missiles but not too much of the larger, more powerful anti-air defense systems. Maybe the West should have been giving them such systems and training them.

Yeah any Ukrainian military formations will be obliterated by artillery and air power if the Russians decide to invade. They'll be annihilated like the Iraqi divisions were in Gulf War II. Getting in will be the easy part for the Russians.

Yeah, the Ukrainians army is probably screwed if russia invades. Hopefully any armaments the west provided will at least bloody the Russians. The occupation is another matter.