Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[DGuller]

I'm personally feeling a little fatalistic about the threat of nuclear war.  If humanity with nukes means that the craziest actor with nukes gets to do whatever he wants, then I guess it just wasn't meant to be. 

I think it's very much possible that in the long run, the existence of nuclear weapons guarantees the destruction of civilization, sooner or later reality-defying death cults with nukes and brinksmanship that spun out of control will meet.  I think the idea that rational thinking will always prevail in the end when the nukes are involved is a coping mechanism, not reality.

[The Larch]

@Barrister:
  They produce gas. But just like many other such statistics, this one is misleading as well. Rotterdam imports the oil maybe, but then sells crude or the refined products to e.g. Germany.  Just like Poland can withstand Russia's Jamal pipeline embargo because they get has from Germany, imported via Nordstream 1 of course...

Didn't Gazprom and/or NordStream own a big Dutch subsidiary? They might be the ones doing all the import/export of Russian oil products

[Sheilbh]

Didn't Gazprom and/or NordStream own a big Dutch subsidiary? They might be the ones doing all the import/export of Russian oil products

The article mentions a big oil terminal jointly owned by Exxon, Total and Shell - all companies have stopped new work in Russia but are going to get fulfil contracts from before the war. So they're still shipping out of Russia.

[The Larch]

So... some speculation that Putin will use May 9th to escalate and possibly enact general mobilization. Reportedly, internal Russian rhetoric is increasingly casting the war as an existential struggle for Russia vs NATO, as opposed to a local "special operation". I believe this is correct. Putin's shown his hand as an evil actor and an outright enemy, and the West is correctly standing up to him.

The worry, however, is that this will lead to actions that target NATO, leading to what some see as potentially tough decisions - how to respond to Russia hitting targets inside NATO countries, f. ex.? There's a real risk of a potential wider conflagration of this war, it seems.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-state-tv-vladimir-putin-may-start-a-nuclear-war-but-we-are-ready-to-die

Sounds like the talking heads are building up a suicidal frenzy pushing themselves to global thermonuclear war, hopefully in just an effort to bid over each other in signalling loyalty. But this is very worrying.

I don't think we should loose much sleep over whatever crap Russian state tv pundits are blathering about, as all they've done so far is spout bloodthirsty nonsense.

Propaganda works, though. If you are a Russian not consuming any of the dwindling non-government news sources, you are under mortal attack by the West, on the brink of having to use nuclear weapons.

We knew that already, there are tons of quotes from Ukranians with family in Russia in complete disbelief about how their own family members didn't believe what they told them about the war due to the absolute brainwashing going on in Russian mainstream media.

[The Larch]

So... some speculation that Putin will use May 9th to escalate and possibly enact general mobilization. Reportedly, internal Russian rhetoric is increasingly casting the war as an existential struggle for Russia vs NATO, as opposed to a local "special operation". I believe this is correct. Putin's shown his hand as an evil actor and an outright enemy, and the West is correctly standing up to him.

The worry, however, is that this will lead to actions that target NATO, leading to what some see as potentially tough decisions - how to respond to Russia hitting targets inside NATO countries, f. ex.? There's a real risk of a potential wider conflagration of this war, it seems.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-state-tv-vladimir-putin-may-start-a-nuclear-war-but-we-are-ready-to-die

Sounds like the talking heads are building up a suicidal frenzy pushing themselves to global thermonuclear war, hopefully in just an effort to bid over each other in signalling loyalty. But this is very worrying.

I don't think we should loose much sleep over whatever crap Russian state tv pundits are blathering about, as all they've done so far is spout bloodthirsty nonsense.

Yeah, the whole "we'll blow up the West in a blaze of nuclear fire" rethoric was already there in the runup to the invasion.

That show is the warmongering equivalent of El Chiringuito.

Now I'm imagining Pedrerol and Roncero spouting Russian propaganda in my head and I can't make it go away. 

[Tamas]

So... some speculation that Putin will use May 9th to escalate and possibly enact general mobilization. Reportedly, internal Russian rhetoric is increasingly casting the war as an existential struggle for Russia vs NATO, as opposed to a local "special operation". I believe this is correct. Putin's shown his hand as an evil actor and an outright enemy, and the West is correctly standing up to him.

The worry, however, is that this will lead to actions that target NATO, leading to what some see as potentially tough decisions - how to respond to Russia hitting targets inside NATO countries, f. ex.? There's a real risk of a potential wider conflagration of this war, it seems.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-state-tv-vladimir-putin-may-start-a-nuclear-war-but-we-are-ready-to-die

Sounds like the talking heads are building up a suicidal frenzy pushing themselves to global thermonuclear war, hopefully in just an effort to bid over each other in signalling loyalty. But this is very worrying.

I don't think we should loose much sleep over whatever crap Russian state tv pundits are blathering about, as all they've done so far is spout bloodthirsty nonsense.

Propaganda works, though. If you are a Russian not consuming any of the dwindling non-government news sources, you are under mortal attack by the West, on the brink of having to use nuclear weapons.

We knew that already, there are tons of quotes from Ukranians with family in Russia in complete disbelief about how their own family members didn't believe what they told them about the war due to the absolute brainwashing going on in Russian mainstream media.

Exactly, so if there's a marked escalation in the level of madness spouted in the propaganda, that is cause for concern.

[The Brain]

Since you cannot bow to Russian nuclear threats they don't matter much. Worrying about stuff beyond your control doesn't make sense.

[Jacob]

Since you cannot bow to Russian nuclear threats they don't matter much. Worrying about stuff beyond your control doesn't make sense.

Exactly.

And realistically I'm going to ignore the prospect of nuclear armageddon until it's too late anyhow. In THEORY I could get a little cabin somewhere where I think the odds are best for surviving a full nuclear exchange, but in reality I'm not going to do that. Way too much hassle.

I'll just sit tight here and hope it all works out. If it doesn't... well that'll suck, but I'm not going to change anything until then.

[Josquius]

]

Propaganda works, though. If you are a Russian not consuming any of the dwindling non-government news sources, you are under mortal attack by the West, on the brink of having to use nuclear weapons.

We knew that already, there are tons of quotes from Ukranians with family in Russia in complete disbelief about how their own family members didn't believe what they told them about the war due to the absolute brainwashing going on in Russian mainstream media.

It's curious though as according to all I've heard in the Soviet union people didn't believe the propeganda to such a degree.
Are modern methods just so much more sophisticated? Or are people dumber?

[crazy canuck]

Hey yanks, what's the deal with this:

https://twitter.com/jamiedupree/status/1519452814245871616

I had Ocasio-Cortez as an unusually leftist US politician, but still fighting the good fight. Are the democrat leftists Putin stooges or is there, as one would suspect, more complex stuff at hand?

Quick google search shows the concern she had

AOC and other progressives have long been concerned about civil forfeiture laws, which have sometimes been used as blunt weapons in the hands of overzealous prosecutors.

Some advocates say those forfeiture rules have disproportionately been used to punish Black and brown suspects in the failed war on drugs.

"This sets a risky new precedent in the event future Presidents who may seek to abuse that expansion of power," Ocasio-Cortez said.

https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/us-elections-government/ny-aoc-assets-russia-putin-oligarch-20220428-g5dttf5fprcwpp3ydodmubq3be-story.html

[viper37]

What's up with Netherlands?  I thought they were an oil-producing state?

I'm guessing they refine the russian oil (Shell?)

[Sheilbh]

I'm guessing they refine the russian oil (Shell?)

Really big complex jointly owned by Shell, Total and Exxon - plus other terminals.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Dutch trade figures are often a bit weird, to use a technical term, as Rotterdam is such a massive entrepot.

[Jacob]

Video - by a Danish navy guy - suggesting that the Moskva failed to stop the Neptune attacks potentially due UXUI issues and not because of some sort of "distracted by drone" distraction technique. I find it interesting and plausible. Curious what grumbler and Josq think, as our resident Navy and UXUI experts.

[The Larch]

I've seen in a Financial Times graph that apparently Austria, Germany, Hungary and Slovakia are willing to open bank accounts denominated in Rubles with Gazprombank to meet Russian demands for trading in rubles for their gas.