Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Solmyr]

Been reading up on the logistics. The Russian logistical train seems to be in horrible condition and there are reports that they've started to send civilian trucks to Ukraine, presumably further hindering their off-road capabilities.

The offensive seems to slowly grind to a halt, the war seems to develop into sieges of Kiev, Charkov, Zaporizjzja and Mykolaiv, perhaps Dnipropetrovsk. As long as those places hold the Russians will have gigantic logistical dificulties to go around them. Also I will never learn to spell these places.

Everything points to this war being longer than anticipated, unless the Russians fold it might last months or even years. But for that to happen the west need to get supplies to Ukraine, mostly light weapons. There are 44 million Ukrainians, potentially there's an army of 4-5 million soldiers to fight the Russians, but they need equipment, everything from uniforms to weapons.

And they need logistical support, we need to supply fuel and trucks to the Ukrainians to increase their longevity. No doubt western production outproduces Russia to a huge margin, but have we started our factories? I've read precious little of what the US is supplying, what are they sending? Have anyone heard anything about this kind of stuff?

And does anyone know what the Russian are capable of? How many trucks can their factories produce? How many planes?

I suspect zero, given that many of the components they need are under sanctions and/or produced by companies no longer doing business with Russia.

[Admiral Yi]

I would be surprised if their military equipment relies on foreign components.

[The Brain]

The only thing worse than a Russian-built product is a Russian-built product made completely from domestic components.

[Tamas]

Apparently, the Russian defense ministry said today, among other things:
- the believe Ukrainians are using Romanian and "other neighbouring" airfields and threatened that this is an act of war
- claim they found evidence of Ukraine having been working together with the USA to develop various biological weapons.

I guess the mildest explanation of these narratives is that they want to shore up support back home, but it is sure as hell isn't indicate of de-escalation or looking for a way out of the war.

I continue to be really concerned. It's all good and well that we try to avoid escalation into WW3, but those efforts require both sides to contribute.

[celedhring]

The only thing worse than a Russian-built product is a Russian-built product made completely from domestic components.

How was that old joke? "Russia manufactures the fastest watches and the largest microprocessors"

[Jacob]

I would be surprised if their military equipment relies on foreign components.

Seems a bunch of their vehicles had Chinese tires.

But it's not just about the components themselves, but also the machinery they use (which requires maintenance and spare parts) and the inputs (f.ex. how much of their machinery requires microprocessors and how good is Russia's microprocessor manufacturing capacity?).

[Jacob]

Apparently, the Russian defense ministry said today, among other things:
- the believe Ukrainians are using Romanian and "other neighbouring" airfields and threatened that this is an act of war
- claim they found evidence of Ukraine having been working together with the USA to develop various biological weapons.

I guess the mildest explanation of these narratives is that they want to shore up support back home, but it is sure as hell isn't indicate of de-escalation or looking for a way out of the war.

I continue to be really concerned. It's all good and well that we try to avoid escalation into WW3, but those efforts require both sides to contribute.

Yeah... if things are even half as dire as our current information seems to indicate then Russia will soon be unable to sustain their offensive.

This is good news, but it means we'll have to deal with whatever malarky Putin comes up with as he goes through the denial and anger phases.

On the upside, given the state of Russia's nuclear arsenal humanity may survive nuclear exchange between Russia and NATO - rising again from Africa and remote Pacific Islands.

[celedhring]

Apparently, the Russian defense ministry said today, among other things:
- the believe Ukrainians are using Romanian and "other neighbouring" airfields and threatened that this is an act of war
- claim they found evidence of Ukraine having been working together with the USA to develop various biological weapons.

I guess the mildest explanation of these narratives is that they want to shore up support back home, but it is sure as hell isn't indicate of de-escalation or looking for a way out of the war.

I continue to be really concerned. It's all good and well that we try to avoid escalation into WW3, but those efforts require both sides to contribute.

It looks aimed at home to me. They need to prepare the population for a real war, now that they are failing to win their quick "special operation", and also give a reason they failed (evil west is in cahoots with the fascists).

[grumbler]

The only thing worse than a Russian-built product is a Russian-built product made completely from domestic components.

"The parts falling off my tank are of the finest Russian quality."

[Threviel]

Man I've seen plenty of video of knocked out and abandoned Russian gear.

Makes some sense Russia is having success in the south, since they can presumably supply by sea.

Yeah. I wonder how long they make a real push for Odessa.

To get to Odessa they have to pass through Mikolajev (Something like that).

After Cherson the Ukrainians won't let that city fall without a siege.

Or they could assault from the sea, I'm hoping for that because the Russians will, in all likelihood, fuck that up and it will be a Ukrainian victory.

[Razgovory]

I hope the stuff about Russian logistics is true and not just bullshit.

[Grey Fox]

(f.ex. how much of their machinery requires microprocessors and how good is Russia's microprocessor manufacturing capacity?).

In a modern sense, inexistant. They have relied entirely on TSMC to sell them modern chips.

[The Brain]

I wonder how many of their production lines use Western automation hardware and software, or Western sensors and measurement equipment. Without spares or support simply maintaining current production will be an achievement in those cases.

[Jacob]

In a modern sense, inexistant. They have relied entirely on TSMC to sell them modern chips.

And then the question becomes whether manufacturing new planes / trucks / missiles / tanks / APCs / artillery / etc requires those chips.

[Admiral Yi]

Apparently, the Russian defense ministry said today, among other things:
- the believe Ukrainians are using Romanian and "other neighbouring" airfields and threatened that this is an act of war
- claim they found evidence of Ukraine having been working together with the USA to develop various biological weapons.

I guess the mildest explanation of these narratives is that they want to shore up support back home, but it is sure as hell isn't indicate of de-escalation or looking for a way out of the war.

I continue to be really concerned. It's all good and well that we try to avoid escalation into WW3, but those efforts require both sides to contribute.

It has to be for domestic consumption.  What's the point of declaring that something we are not doing would constitute an act of war?  We can't stop doing it if we're not doing it to begin with.