Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Sheilbh]

There's a Federation Council meeting in Russia tomorrow. According to reporters in Moscow lots of rumours around what is set to be announced from anti-crisis laws, martial law (this seems to be what people are predicting) to full mobilisation/conscription.

Lots of young Russians appear to be getting out of the country ASAP - especially young men - if they can. I believe one of the Nordic countries has considered offering asylum to Russian deserters.

Again - it is very early days - but this is not where I think Putin wanted or expected to be 7 days into this war.

[OttoVonBismarck]

It would definitely be foolish to think most Russians have not historically supported Putin. He obviously started massively cheating at elections a long time ago, but I think our best assessments of Putin's "genuine" level of support was always 65% or more I believe for most of the last 15 years, sometimes even higher. Is it still that high today? I've heard it isn't, but it is still probably in the 45-55% range (broad numbers because it's just very hard to get reliable data on this topic.)

[Maladict]

This has probably been posted already, but Ukraine is allowing Russian mothers to come and take their captured sons home.

They are playing this game very well.

[Sheilbh]

It would definitely be foolish to think most Russians have not historically supported Putin. He obviously started massively cheating at elections a long time ago, but I think our best assessments of Putin's "genuine" level of support was always 65% or more I believe for most of the last 15 years, sometimes even higher. Is it still that high today? I've heard it isn't, but it is still probably in the 45-55% range (broad numbers because it's just very hard to get reliable data on this topic.)

Yeah - and I don't really buy the idea that even most of his supporters like him because of nationalist sentiment. There's definitely a constituency of that but I think his big selling point has been stability and (until the last few years) economic growth after the 90s.

I'm not sure how many Russians - even among Putin's supporters - have bought into the autarkic, significantly poorer but "prouder"/"unified"/"more virtuous" country that he's now openly talking about. I'm not sure many are thrilled that they're back to Russians being better than the West because they're able to endure more - I think the core of Putin's appeal was that they had to endure a lot less under him.

I keep being struck by the fact they're not even allowed to call it a war in the media - and that Russia have confirmed at least 500 deaths in one week of this "special military operation". Apparently they are broadly keeping to normal broadcasting - this is an item on normal news bulletins but there's no wall-to-wall "OUR BOYS FIGHTING BACK" coverage. Add the throttling of social media, clamping down on remaining independent press. All of that suggests to me this isn't particularly popular and if it was intended as a "rally round the flag" moment, that's not how they're playing it.

Edit: Incidentally that the Russian MoD is admitting to 500 deaths makes me think the Ukrainian estimates might not be that far off.

[Syt]

It definitely feels like a major miscalculation ... or a major "Fuck it - YOLO!" moment.

[OttoVonBismarck]

My guess is it was Fuck It--YOLO, but with a strong expectation of a very quick general Ukrainian collapse, installation of a Yanukovych style person (maybe even Yanu himself), and waving the flag of victory and securing Russian integration with a pliant Ukraine. At that point Putin could have ended his life retired to his Dacha or whatever (there were credible reports that Putin despite recently changing constitutional rules so he has no term limits, is actually interested in retiring at some point.)

[Sheilbh]

Economic isolation in the age of SaaS - Oracle have announced they're going to stop working in Russia. I cannot imagine the carnage that would cause most of the companies I've worked at

Anton Barbashin
@ABarbashin
Oracle stops working with Russia. If Microsoft does it as well, it will paralyze the country more effectively than your worst virus

[mongers]

The general assembly of the United Nations voted today on a resolution condemning the invasion of Ukraine. It passed 141 to 5.

The 5 who voted against it were Russia, Belarus, North Korea, Syria and Eritrea.

Notable abstentions: China, Armenia, Cuba, India, Iran, Iraq, Kazahstan, Pakistan, South Africa.

This bears repeating.

[chipwich]

Who voted on Afghanistan's behalf?

[Sheilbh]

Not sure - but weirdly the Taliban did issue a statement calling for calm and encouraging peace talks.

[mongers]

Flipping through the news channels this evening, notice RT is not broadcasting on it's freeview terrestial channel; when did it get banned?

[PJL]

Seem on the BBC news feed that Russia would essentially accept a democratic but demilitarised Ukraine, and would accept Zelensky as president. Sounds like this is getting less like regime change and more them scrambling for a face-saving climbdown. No way should be accepted of course, as Russia would no doubt renege on their promise within 5-10 years. But perhaps the first sign of them trying to extricate themselves out of this mess.

I think if Ukraine is still a viable entity by the end of the month, they probably have a good chance of coming out of this, if not intact, probably not much worse than Finland after the Winter War.

[Syt]

Flipping through the news channels this evening, notice RT is not broadcasting on it's freeview terrestial channel; when did it get banned?

Couple days ago over here.

[Sheilbh]

Flipping through the news channels this evening, notice RT is not broadcasting on it's freeview terrestial channel; when did it get banned?

It hasn't been I don't think - Ofcom reviewing a number of complaints. I think a number of companies that do the broadcasting, including Sky, have removed it.

Separately a new batch of Bayraktars have just arrived from Turkey - so no doubt we'll hear that ear worm again soon.

[The Brain]

Seem on the BBC news feed that Russia would essentially accept a democratic but demilitarised Ukraine, and would accept Zelensky as president. Sounds like this is getting less like regime change and more them scrambling for a face-saving climbdown. No way should be accepted of course, as Russia would no doubt renege on their promise within 5-10 years. But perhaps the first sign of them trying to extricate themselves out of this mess.

I think if Ukraine is still a viable entity by the end of the month, they probably have a good chance of coming out of this, if not intact, probably not much worse than Finland after the Winter War.

Putin is in full panic, and having no idea how to save himself.