Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[alfred russel]

Putin has appointed Alexander Dvornikov to overall command in order to turn around his invasion.

He must have had a very impressive resume to get such an important job, but his prospects were significantly aided by being the last senior Russian officer left alive.

[Sheilbh]

I think it was in an interview with a German paper but Zelensky has said that some figures within the EU were asking for evidence that Bucha wasn't staged. They asked if they were at head of government level and Zelensky said they were.

My guess is this is probably the start of Orrban being less cooperative and less willing to go along with the rest of the EU on Ukraine now he's won his election

[Threviel]

Too bad the krauts seem retarded, otherwise that kind of shenanigans would get Hungary kicked out of EU and Nato at the double, fucking traitors.

[celedhring]

We don't even have a formal process to kick people out, though. Best we can do is Article 7.

[Legbiter]

He must have had a very impressive resume to get such an important job, but his prospects were significantly aided by being the last senior Russian officer left alive.

The sweet release of death via a Ukrainian missile would probably be preferable to being put in charge of salvaging this shitshow.

[Zanza]

Too bad the krauts seem retarded, otherwise that kind of shenanigans would get Hungary kicked out of EU and Nato at the double, fucking traitors.

What's Germany's pat here? Must have missed it.

[Threviel]

Too bad the krauts seem retarded, otherwise that kind of shenanigans would get Hungary kicked out of EU and Nato at the double, fucking traitors.

What's Germany's pat here? Must have missed it.

Germany seems to constantly work against the stream when in comes to actions against the Orcs and weapon shipments to Ukraine. Polling suggests that's what the krauts want with not even 50% of Germans supporting further actions on Ukraine.

Germany seems stuck in some idiot peacenik mode where neither the leadership nor the people seem to support some kind of realpolitik and this is very much a time for realpolitik.

Edit: By that I mean that Germany won't come down hard on Hungary, but rather do the Merkel thing and whistle and look away, happy for not having to be the adult in the room.

[Sheilbh]

Been rumoured for a while, but Johnson's in Kyiv:
https://twitter.com/ukremblondon/status/1512791528607031303?s=21&t=MVKzmSYu2gtFoIlofQmX8A

[Threviel]

Thinking about European choices more long term it seems quite obvious that although everything is moving very fast it's moving far too slow.

In about two years time we are possibly looking at a US under Republican rule, for all we know they might go neutral och even evil neutral and stop supporting their Nato allies and Ukraine in this conflict. One might as well throw a dice as to what'll happen there. Any future European strategy should assume that the European powers are alone.

Militarily the European powers are a joke right now. With the possible exception of the UK no power is capable of any kind of serious military endeavour. France couldn't even lead a coalition in a minor adventure in their own back yard in Libya without weapon deliveries from the US.

Ukraine needs weapons, in a few months they will be needing deliveries of heavy weapons, tanks, armoured vehicles, logistics, artillery, air planes, robots, UAV's and so on in addition to a lot of lighter weapons. Russia has material reserves to fight on for years and we need to make sure that Ukraine has the same. If we do that we'll break Russia for generations and more or less guarantee peace on the Eastern frontier. Bonus if it'll lead to the breaking away of their vassal states and hopefully (but unlikely) a crushing civil war breaking down Russia even further. 


We can't do that. Not even the US can deliver light AT weapons at the level (500 a day allegedly) that Ukraine needs. As far as I know there's no serious factory anywhere in western Europe that can crunch out any kind of large number of armoured vehicles. Britain has 227 Challenger 2s, France 222 Leclercs, Germany 266 Leopard 2. There's no European production of MBTs going on. Presumably it's about the same for every kind of military vehicle.

We need to start producing now, not only for Ukraine but the European inventories need to increase by a factor of 5-10 or so. We need to be able to single handedly be able to supply Ukraine in 2 years time if the war continues for that long.

[Threviel]

Also, since it's the best European air plane we ought to pay for a few hundred Saab Gripens to Ukraine.

[celedhring]

Also, since it's the best European air plane we ought to pay for a few hundred Saab Gripens to Ukraine.

It's not?

I mean, it beats the Typhoon on bang-for-the-buck score, and we might be better off sending 100 Gripens than 50 Typhoons, but the EF has better capability.

[Threviel]

Also, since it's the best European air plane we ought to pay for a few hundred Saab Gripens to Ukraine.

It's not?

I mean, it beats the Typhoon on bang-for-the-buck score, and we'd probably be better off sending 100 Gripens than 50 Typhoons, but not in capability.

That one might have been a bit tongue-in-cheek. But Gripen has a production line, so if we want to send western planes it's a candidate. I don't know if there is any other plane building in Europe (aside from F-35).

[Sheilbh]

Poland has frozen relations with Hungary

Via Nexta:

"Orban needs an ophthalmologist to see #Bucha. The restoration of relations is possible only after a change in the assessments of the war in #Ukraine," the Deputy Prime Minister said.

Edit: Between the Polish government's approach to diplomacy and the "Fuck you. Thanks for your support" exchange, I feel like I understand Marti more.

[Zanza]

Too bad the krauts seem retarded, otherwise that kind of shenanigans would get Hungary kicked out of EU and Nato at the double, fucking traitors.

What's Germany's pat here? Must have missed it.

Germany seems to constantly work against the stream when in comes to actions against the Orcs and weapon shipments to Ukraine. Polling suggests that's what the krauts want with not even 50% of Germans supporting further actions on Ukraine.

Germany seems stuck in some idiot peacenik mode where neither the leadership nor the people seem to support some kind of realpolitik and this is very much a time for realpolitik.

Edit: By that I mean that Germany won't come down hard on Hungary, but rather do the Merkel thing and whistle and look away, happy for not having to be the adult in the room.

Okay, so nothing but some internet ranting. I thought there was something more concrete that you referred to.

PS: You are wrong on the polling, see e.g. latest Deutschlandtrend.

[Jacob]

Yeah Threviel - I agree that Europe needs to plan for the case where the US elects Trump and Trump moves to support Russia over Ukraine. But I'm not sure I understand your special animus against Germany here.