Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Berkut]

I don't buy into the notion that the West has trampled on Russia much.  Russians have never come to peace with the fact that they lost the Cold War to hamburger-eating obese morons who can't even find them on the map.  I don't think anything the West could've reasonably done would've blunted the edge of such humiliation.  Therefore, it was only a matter of time before a dangerous demagogue tapped into that bile.

I don't think we have trampled them that much, at least not from our perspective. From theirs, I think we have - we basically ignored them. We expanded NATO to their borders, we encouraged the Ukrained to lean West, we basically have pretty much just ignored Russia as a great power. I don't think that was wrong per se, because really, they are NOT a great power...except that they have a shitload of nukes.

From our perspective, we are acting very normally. We know we are no threat to Russia, and that the best thing for Russia to do is stop acting like a bunch of douchebags, get their house in order, and join us in the Western world all liberal, fat, dumb, and happy. Who cares if NATO expands east? We aren't looking to invade Russia, so what difference does it make?

I think that is basically out attitude, or has been. Russia doesn't matter, they lost, we won, we can pretty much not worry about them.

Well, that is a pretty horrible way to treat them, given what we know about their paranoia and insecurity combined with the second largest nuclear arsenal in the world and a huge fucking chip on their shoulder.

I don't think we should be rolling over to them by any means, but I wonder what the purpose of things like bringing the Baltic States into NATO. Surely we could figure out a way to make them more secure without expanding a historically anti-Russian alliance to the borders of Russia, understanding how that must look to Russia...for example?

[DGuller]

I guess when you get down to it, geopolitics is no place for idealists.  Sentiment can change much easier than facts on the ground.  Russia wasn't a threat, but it conceivably could be, so better get the most civilized parts of Warsaw Pact under NATO umbrella while you can.

[Razgovory]

It's not like the the US forced NATO on Eastern Europe.  They are free and sovereign states, capable of joining and leaving any organization that will have them.  They wanted to join NATO, and for a very good reason apparently.

[Ed Anger]

I wish we'd leave NATO.

[alfred russel]

I don't buy into the notion that the West has trampled on Russia much.  Russians have never come to peace with the fact that they lost the Cold War to hamburger-eating obese morons who can't even find them on the map.  I don't think anything the West could've reasonably done would've blunted the edge of such humiliation.  Therefore, it was only a matter of time before a dangerous demagogue tapped into that bile.

I don't think we have trampled them that much, at least not from our perspective. From theirs, I think we have - we basically ignored them. We expanded NATO to their borders, we encouraged the Ukrained to lean West, we basically have pretty much just ignored Russia as a great power. I don't think that was wrong per se, because really, they are NOT a great power...except that they have a shitload of nukes.

From our perspective, we are acting very normally. We know we are no threat to Russia, and that the best thing for Russia to do is stop acting like a bunch of douchebags, get their house in order, and join us in the Western world all liberal, fat, dumb, and happy. Who cares if NATO expands east? We aren't looking to invade Russia, so what difference does it make?

I think that is basically out attitude, or has been. Russia doesn't matter, they lost, we won, we can pretty much not worry about them.

Well, that is a pretty horrible way to treat them, given what we know about their paranoia and insecurity combined with the second largest nuclear arsenal in the world and a huge fucking chip on their shoulder.

I don't think we should be rolling over to them by any means, but I wonder what the purpose of things like bringing the Baltic States into NATO. Surely we could figure out a way to make them more secure without expanding a historically anti-Russian alliance to the borders of Russia, understanding how that must look to Russia...for example?

Don't lose sight of Russia being a fucked up place that has been in the business of exporting various brands of its nonsense to its neighbors (and beyond, if it can). I don't think Ukraine began to lean west because politicians in the west convinced them to do so--the country began to lean to the west because the EU model looks a lot more attractive than the Russia one. In such cases it is difficult for western politicians to close off contact with a large country like the Ukraine because it is deemed in another country's sphere of influence.

[Razgovory]

I wish we'd leave NATO.

You'd end paying property taxes to Vlad within a week.

[Ed Anger]

I wish we'd leave NATO.

You'd end paying property taxes to Vlad within a week.

It would likely go down then. 3000 euros a year is a bit much currently

VLAD!

[grumbler]

In the long run is it in anyone's interest to have NATO parked north of Kiev?

Ran this through my gibberish-English translator and it still came out gibberish.  Can anyone translate "NATO parked north of Kiev" into English?

Do fuck off.

Se how easy it is to eschew obfuscation when you limit your sentences written in English to three words?  Best not to push your command of the language beyond its carrying capacity. 

[grumbler]

I don't buy into the notion that the West has trampled on Russia much.  Russians have never come to peace with the fact that they lost the Cold War to hamburger-eating obese morons who can't even find them on the map.  I don't think anything the West could've reasonably done would've blunted the edge of such humiliation.  Therefore, it was only a matter of time before a dangerous demagogue tapped into that bile.

  Well-played.

[grumbler]

I think that the reason no one was very concerned that NATO was expanding eastwards was because it looked at the time like Russia itself would join before to very long.  Remember that Yeltsin seemed like a pro-Western (if slightly bumbling, in that corrupt-but-still-our-guy kind of way) leader setting Russia up to be a European power with an eastern appendage, not a "Eurasian" wannabe-world-power.

Alas, money wasn't enough for the former-KGB mafiosi.  They wanted power, too, and that meant rejecting the West in favor of the old national myths of the "third way."  And thus they gave us Putin.

[DGuller]

I don't buy into the notion that the West has trampled on Russia much.  Russians have never come to peace with the fact that they lost the Cold War to hamburger-eating obese morons who can't even find them on the map.  I don't think anything the West could've reasonably done would've blunted the edge of such humiliation.  Therefore, it was only a matter of time before a dangerous demagogue tapped into that bile.

  Well-played.

Did I make a joke my accident?  Obviously I don't agree with such characterization of Americans, but Russians generally consider themselves far superior to Americans on an individual level, and for the purposes of humiliation, their perception is the one that matters.

[grumbler]

I don't buy into the notion that the West has trampled on Russia much.  Russians have never come to peace with the fact that they lost the Cold War to hamburger-eating obese morons who can't even find them on the map.  I don't think anything the West could've reasonably done would've blunted the edge of such humiliation.  Therefore, it was only a matter of time before a dangerous demagogue tapped into that bile.

  Well-played.

Did I make a joke my accident?  Obviously I don't agree with such characterization of Americans, but Russians generally consider themselves far superior to Americans on an individual level, and for the purposes of humiliation, their perception is the one that matters.

Really?  You meant that you Russians think that "hamburger-eating obese morons" is a serious description of every American, and not a metaphor?  Okay.  I guess that that is even funnier than your metaphor idea. 

[DGuller]

Really?  You meant that you Russians think that "hamburger-eating obese morons" is a serious description of every American, and not a metaphor?  Okay.  I guess that that is even funnier than your metaphor idea. 

I don't know whether they really believe that such particular details are true to the full extent, but I am pretty sure that they generally feel extremely disdainful of Americans, with rather few exceptions.  Even those who respect America don't necessarily respect Americans.

[Tamas]

I don't buy into the notion that the West has trampled on Russia much.  Russians have never come to peace with the fact that they lost the Cold War to hamburger-eating obese morons who can't even find them on the map.  I don't think anything the West could've reasonably done would've blunted the edge of such humiliation.  Therefore, it was only a matter of time before a dangerous demagogue tapped into that bile.

I don't think we have trampled them that much, at least not from our perspective. From theirs, I think we have - we basically ignored them. We expanded NATO to their borders, we encouraged the Ukrained to lean West, we basically have pretty much just ignored Russia as a great power. I don't think that was wrong per se, because really, they are NOT a great power...except that they have a shitload of nukes.

From our perspective, we are acting very normally. We know we are no threat to Russia, and that the best thing for Russia to do is stop acting like a bunch of douchebags, get their house in order, and join us in the Western world all liberal, fat, dumb, and happy. Who cares if NATO expands east? We aren't looking to invade Russia, so what difference does it make?

I think that is basically out attitude, or has been. Russia doesn't matter, they lost, we won, we can pretty much not worry about them.

Well, that is a pretty horrible way to treat them, given what we know about their paranoia and insecurity combined with the second largest nuclear arsenal in the world and a huge fucking chip on their shoulder.

I don't think we should be rolling over to them by any means, but I wonder what the purpose of things like bringing the Baltic States into NATO. Surely we could figure out a way to make them more secure without expanding a historically anti-Russian alliance to the borders of Russia, understanding how that must look to Russia...for example?

I agree, but I am not sure if there were many alternatives regarding the Baltic States. I think it is fairly safe to assume that on the long run, it would have been just a matter of time before a Russian regime tries the Georgia/Ukraine scenario in the Baltic, due to the (relatively) huge number of Russians there. Maybe it would have happened out of Russian warmongering, maybe due to legitimate russian griveances because of some future Baltic government going all fascist on the minority.
But probably it would have happened in a neutral Baltics. I also think though that without NATO membership the EU would not have been that hot on having them join.

So lets assume a NATO-less Baltics get the Ukraine scenario going in full swing. What does the West do then? They have no real legal ground to get involved, and even if some NATO members would be willing to, the rest of the alliance have all the excuses in the world to stay out. So intervention is not a realistic option, only in a very chaotic and unrepdictable way.

So just leave the Baltics to be de-facto reacquired by Russia? But that means greenlighting the retraction of the fall of the Soviet Union. And I doubt the rest of the ex-Soviet countries would have subscribed to that idea.

My ultimate point is: whatever risks we have with the Baltics being NATO members, the end result must be less unpredictable and toxic than they being "neutral".


By the way, I find this kind of discussion fascinating. I have seen a long article in a vehemently anti-Russian Hungarian newssite basically rationalising of just giving up the East Ukraine to Russia and hoping for the best, with which I might even agree with at this stage.
And I find these fascinating because it lets me appreciate the kind of discussions and way of thinking that had to be prevailent in the late 30s in Europe.

[mongers]

In the long run is it in anyone's interest to have NATO parked north of Kiev?

Ran this through my gibberish-English translator and it still came out gibberish.  Can anyone translate "NATO parked north of Kiev" into English?

Do fuck off.

Se how easy it is to eschew obfuscation when you limit your sentences written in English to three words?  Best not to push your command of the language beyond its carrying capacity. 

Whatever old man. And I use that term with a degree of affection, because one day, sooner than the rest of us, you'll drop dead and this forum will then be a more pleasant place to post and chat.  Best wishes and a speedy exit, Mongers.