Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Josquius]

No idea how true it is but looks like the prison barrel is done.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/wagner-group-stops-recruiting-prisoners-145013600.html

[mongers]

No idea how true it is but looks like the prison barrel is done.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/wagner-group-stops-recruiting-prisoners-145013600.html

Well I've read that they 'recruited' 40,000 fromthe prisons, so not surprised if they stop or the supply is drying up (wising up).

[Legbiter]

Well I've read that they 'recruited' 40,000 fromthe prisons, so not surprised if they stop or the supply is drying up (wising up).

No signs yet of regular mobiks achieving sentience.

[Tamas]

Two missiles crossed Moldavian and possibly Romanian airspace on their way to Ukraine.

I do wonder how we as the world can avoid this escalating into a world war. If it was not for nukes it already would be one (and to be fair it might have been over already).

Seems to me the plan is to completely ignore Russian provocations like this (like when they blew up Nordstream and that missile that strayed into Poland) and just not give Russia the attention it craves. I think there's a workable ad hoc plan in place where Russia just bleeds out in Ukraine over the next couple of years. Then we get a new Iron Curtain wherever the lines stabilize and Cold War part deux.

That sounds reasonable, let's hope its indeed the agreed plan.

[Legbiter]

Scholz demands more dead vatniks, faster.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Thursday urged his European partners to stop dragging their feet when it comes to delivering heavy military support for Ukraine — an exhortation that comes after Berlin faced its own criticism for slow-walking a tank delivery decision.

Speaking during an EU leaders' summit in Brussels, Scholz told reporters that Berlin had been "very fast" in supplying Kyiv with modern Leopard tanks — and now others needed to follow, especially those who had once been pressuring Germany.

[Sheilbh]

It's a fair push from Scholz.

You have to feel for him if the big German fear was going it alone (by which they actually mean going it without the Americans) that after all the pressure from the rest of Europe the only tanks that have actually been committed are now the Germans and the Brits

From what I've read the issue in other countries is that they're not quite there on getting their tank stock ready and will announce when they are (and many countries are working on training Ukrainians for the new tanks). Which is, I think, a pretty alarming indictment of the state of European defence. It's concerning and supplying Ukraine is paramount but we really need to be re-stocking our own forces in parallel.

[Josquius]

It's a fair push from Scholz.

You have to feel for him if the big German fear was going it alone (by which they actually mean going it without the Americans) that after all the pressure from the rest of Europe the only tanks that have actually been committed are now the Germans and the Brits

From what I've read the issue in other countries is that they're not quite there on getting their tank stock ready and will announce when they are (and many countries are working on training Ukrainians for the new tanks). Which is, I think, a pretty alarming indictment of the state of European defence. It's concerning and supplying Ukraine is paramount but we really need to be re-stocking our own forces in parallel.

I guess we've been seeing articles for years on the state of European militaries and how unprepared they are for anything...

Though the Ukraine war has sort of vindicated this given Russia isn't the beast that could walk over Europe we thought.

[Legbiter]

From what I've read the issue in other countries is that they're not quite there on getting their tank stock ready and will announce when they are (and many countries are working on training Ukrainians for the new tanks). Which is, I think, a pretty alarming indictment of the state of European defence. It's concerning and supplying Ukraine is paramount but we really need to be re-stocking our own forces in parallel.

Yeah if the Ukrainians are to push the Russians back and have a strong negotiating position, say by next September, then the tanks must be sent in the next few weeks. If the lines don't budge this year or Russia advances in places, then this prolongs the war even more.

[Barrister]

No idea how true it is but looks like the prison barrel is done.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/wagner-group-stops-recruiting-prisoners-145013600.html

I read on Twitter that it's more internal Russian politics - that Russian prisoner battalions are going to be formed within the Russian military, rather than from Wagner (so a fight between Shoigu and Prigozhin).  They may have slightly higher regard for the lives of their soldiers/prisoners, but also no longer need their consent to go fight.

[Zoupa]

It's a fair push from Scholz.

You have to feel for him if the big German fear was going it alone (by which they actually mean going it without the Americans) that after all the pressure from the rest of Europe the only tanks that have actually been committed are now the Germans and the Brits

From what I've read the issue in other countries is that they're not quite there on getting their tank stock ready and will announce when they are (and many countries are working on training Ukrainians for the new tanks). Which is, I think, a pretty alarming indictment of the state of European defence. It's concerning and supplying Ukraine is paramount but we really need to be re-stocking our own forces in parallel.

France committed light tanks, which started the domino effect. Canada has already sent Leopards to Poland. Poland and Czechia have given hundreds of T-72s.

[Sheilbh]

France committed light tanks, which started the domino effect. Canada has already sent Leopards to Poland. Poland and Czechia have given hundreds of T-72s.

Sure - and I think the other European Leopards are coming as soon as they're ready too.

[Sheilbh]

Biden going to Poland around the anniversary of the war which will include a meeting of NATO's eastern members which strikes me as a very good move.

I think the Secret Service and US security means that it's very unlikely a sitting President will go to Kyiv any time soon - although if they were thinking about it, the timing works.

[Barrister]

Biden going to Poland around the anniversary of the war which will include a meeting of NATO's eastern members which strikes me as a very good move.

I think the Secret Service and US security means that it's very unlikely a sitting President will go to Kyiv any time soon - although if they were thinking about it, the timing works.

I dunno - it would be mighty badass to go land Air Force One at Hostomel Airport, and just fucking dare the Russians to shoot it down.  (and yes - specifically at Hostomel, not the main international airport)

[Tonitrus]

Good idea.  An escort of a few squadrons of F—22s and F-15s as well.

[Sheilbh]

I dunno - it would be mighty badass to go land Air Force One at Hostomel Airport, and just fucking dare the Russians to shoot it down.  (and yes - specifically at Hostomel, not the main international airport)

Yes it would and the timing is right.

But think it feels unlikely.