Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Legbiter]

A lot of this does seem connected to the fact that Russia is actively pulling its forces out of these areas.

Yeah but no reason for the Ukrainians not to vigorously help them on their way out. The more areas they can clear them out of around the capital, the more Ukrainian forces are freed up for the Donbas.

[PDH]

As has been mentioned before, attacking a foe who is pulling back can be a very effective maneuver - sometimes turning a planned retreat into chaos.

[DGuller]

As exciting as it is that Ukraine is winning in the Kyiv area, it should tempered with the fact that they're still not winning in the Donbas area.  They lost control of Izyum today, which I understand is a pretty key town.

[Sheilbh]

One other thing - I've heard a few people suggest Putin will want this over by (possibly around) Victory Day on 9th May. Not sure if that's plausible but I can certainly see why it might be the case and wonder if it will have an impact over the next month if the Ukrainians continue to hold out even with Russia re-focusing on the Donbas.

[OttoVonBismarck]

If the Russians pull out of the other fronts and focus on Donbas, which is a region they already had military forces in and would be a much smaller front on which to concentrate their military, it is just not realistic that Ukraine will be able to push them out. That's why I had speculated that any realistic peace likely involves the loss of Donetsk/Luhansk which were basically not really part of Ukraine in the last 8 years in any case, the question is how much more than that would they have to concede to secure a peace arrangement.

[Sheilbh]

I think, also, what would need to happen for it to be politically possible for Zelensky to make that concession given what seems to be Ukrainian morale and public mood after the last six weeks.

[Jacob]

If a peace agreement results in Russia keeping Donbas and Luhansk (and Crimea) as OvB suggests is likely, I think the West should maintain sanctions.

[Legbiter]

I'm not sure the Ukrainians are in any great hurry to sign away any piece of their land to Russia. That's probably why Zelinsky has been talking about putting any peace deal with Russia to a referendum. Wouldn't be surprised if the only reason Ukrainian delegations have been meeting with them is so that they can't be painted with being completely unwilling to try diplomacy. 

Personally if the Ukrainians want to fight and bleed the Russian Federation dry to the point of it's collapse, that's fine with me.

[Barrister]

I'm not sure the Ukrainians are in any great hurry to sign away any piece of their land to Russia. That's probably why Zelinsky has been talking about putting any peace deal with Russia to a referendum. Wouldn't be surprised if the only reason Ukrainian delegations have been meeting with them is so that they can't be painted with being completely unwilling to try diplomacy. 

Personally if the Ukrainians want to fight and bleed the Russian Federation dry to the point of collapse, that's fine with me.

I don't know - Zelenskyy has said pretty plainly he's willing to give up on some things, like NATO membership.

And I'm pretty sure he'd be willing to give up on the Donbass - it's just he knows Russia's word isn't good for anything, and wants to make sure he isn't trading part of his country for just a few years for Russia to re-arm.

[Sheilbh]

Although he'd give up NATO membership in exchange for binding security commitments/guarantees, primarily from NATO members. So I'm not sure that's such a massive concession.

I don't disagree on Zelensky I just think that Ukrainian public opinon and morale right now is going to be a pretty strong political constraint. I think the slight risk is if any western governments start pushing Ukraine to compromise/agree a deal - we need to really let ourselves be guided by the Ukrainians on what is or isn't a good deal, I think.

[Berkut]

At the end of the day, the pressure on Ukraine to make a deal amounts to a price they are paying in civilian lives every day they don't make a deal.

It is pretty much entirely on them to decide if that is worth it.

However, I think no part of any deal should include any constraint on Western nations ability to continue to engage in economic and political warfare against Putin.

[Admiral Yi]

At the end of the day, the pressure on Ukraine to make a deal amounts to a price they are playing in civilian lives every day they don't make a deal.

It is pretty much entirely on them to decide if that is worth it.

Yup.  Militarily all the trend lines are in Ukraine's favor, but each day Russia kills more civilians.

[Legbiter]

At the end of the day, the pressure on Ukraine to make a deal amounts to a price they are paying in civilian lives every day they don't make a deal.

It is pretty much entirely on them to decide if that is worth it.

However, I think no part of any deal should include any constraint on Western nations ability to continue to engage in economic and political warfare against Putin.

I'd like to see them operate on an oil-for-food programme, Iraqi-style, for the next 70 years.

[Jacob]

I'm not sure the Ukrainians are in any great hurry to sign away any piece of their land to Russia. That's probably why Zelinsky has been talking about putting any peace deal with Russia to a referendum. Wouldn't be surprised if the only reason Ukrainian delegations have been meeting with them is so that they can't be painted with being completely unwilling to try diplomacy. 

Personally if the Ukrainians want to fight and bleed the Russian Federation dry to the point of it's collapse, that's fine with me.

I think the slight risk is if any western governments start pushing Ukraine to compromise/agree a deal - we need to really let ourselves be guided by the Ukrainians on what is or isn't a good deal, I think.

Agreed on both of these. Our role is to support Ukraine to the fullest, IMO. We should not seek compromise with Russia.

[DGuller]

I hope that the West collectively will smell blood and not let up on Russia, not to ignore both the moral and pragmatic reasons why it shouldn't.  I imagine that Russia annoyed quite a few people with their constant flouting of norms all over the place and then gaslighting everyone about it.  The west sat there and took it because they didn't have the stomach for a serious fight, but now that they're in one anyway and actually exposed the bully, they should demonstrate for next time why being a punk on the world stage is a long-term losing strategy.