Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[OttoVonBismarck]

Yeah I'm fine with the fuel depot strike, and don't think it even risks much blowback. Putin has already seen a surge in support over the war and with his control of traditional media (which is how the vast majority of Russians over the age of 35 get their news) he can craft whatever narrative he wants from whatever situation he wants. Most Russians already believe the war in Ukraine is a defensive war of necessity. He doesn't need to blow up a fuel depot near the Ukrainian border, that has active value in the ongoing war's logistics, to accomplish anything.

[Jacob]

I'm fine with it as well, in case anyone's curious.  I hope the West realizes two things now:  Russia is no longer in position where the West should worry like a battered wife about what Putin will think about this or that, and that Ukraine can't defend itself while allowing Russia to use the entirety of its territory as a base of operations that's off-limits to Ukraine.

Yes.

From Ukraine's position, they should do whatever they can to put pressure on the Putin regime and improve both their bargaining and tactical positions. If that includes strikes in Russia - and why wouldn't it - they should do it.

From the West's position, as far as I'm concerned we're in a full on proxy war with Russia and we should do what we can to facilitate the highest possible costs on Russia for their actions - and that includes Ukrainian strikes within Russia itself.

What would be spectacular would be if the Trans-Siberian railway could be targetted... but that's probably highly impractical, unfortunately, unless local saboteurs could be arranged.

[Syt]

Interesting article (in English) about the experience of one town, Trostyanets, under one month of Russian occupation.

https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/liberated-from-the-russians-a-visit-to-trostyanets-after-the-end-of-the-occupation-a-c088be53-5f6c-4059-8d46-68803276e473

Christ, that's grim.

It is. This had me roll my eyes a bit, though:

Another resident spoke of his 80-year-old mother, who died on March 21. "I had to lay her out in the garage," he says. There was no burial in the cemetery, no church service and no mourners. He says he hammered together a coffin at home and buried his mother in the yard. He asks that his name not be used for this article since he works at the chocolate factory and executives in the U.S. asked employees not to speak to the press.

I know it's standard policy in most corporations, but come on. 

[Sheilbh]

Presumably this is a bit more long-term, sending unfamiliar artillery systems with a big logistics footprint into an active warzone is not something that gets done in a few days.

Yeah - though the UK sent anti-air that required some training and my assumption is we did that with the Ukrainians somewhere else (Poland?) and it's now in use. If Western allies are now moving to artillery and vehicles and that require training I imagine we'll do the preparation elsewhere before it actually gets to Ukraine.

It just struck me as a shift from a purely "anti-x" defensive weapon and made me wonder if we're looking to support a shift in the posture of Ukrainian forces - which would be interesting.

[Jacob]

I am all for giving Ukraine equipment that requires training, as well as the training that goes with it. The sooner we get started, the better. Who knows how long this war will last?

[Syt]

Germany has ok'ed the sale of 50 APCs from old GDR stock to Ukraine ... unfortunately they'll need to be made combat fit first.

[Sheilbh]

I am all for giving Ukraine equipment that requires training, as well as the training that goes with it. The sooner we get started, the better. Who knows how long this war will last?

Yeah - as I say I think we need to start thinking about a long-term, formal lend-lease set up. These commitments from various countries are good but I think we need to look at structuring something that Ukraine can rely on as long as they need it - not least because I think the tempo of these commitments will fall off as attention moves elsewhere.

Germany has ok'ed the sale of 50 APCs from old GDR stock to Ukraine ... unfortunately they'll need to be made combat fit first.

I think this is the second time that's happened with some German equipment - presumably the reason it's there is because that's what the Bundeswehr still has which probably suggests why Germany really needs to invest in defence, or is that probably wrong?

[Barrister]

One thing I wonder is what level of financial support is the west giving Ukraine?

I mean it's economy I think is probably down 25-50%, tax collection almost impossible in big swaths of the country, and it was hardly a rich country to start out with.

[Syt]

I think in this case it's more old stock that's been lying around and not been meant to be in use, as these are from old Warsaw Pact stock. I could see some reasoning being that the Ukrainian army is familiar with this equipment and can immediately use it, know how to maintain it, and potentially have supplies and spare parts for it.

[Barrister]

I think in this case it's more old stock that's been lying around and not been meant to be in use, as these are from old Warsaw Pact stock. I could see some reasoning being that the Ukrainian army is familiar with this equipment and can immediately use it, know how to maintain it, and potentially have supplies and spare parts for it.

That's my understanding - not that the West won't give modern western gear (they have), but that logistically it's easier for the Ukrainians to have equipment they have experience using, have spare parts for, the the like.

[Sheilbh]

I think in this case it's more old stock that's been lying around and not been meant to be in use, as these are from old Warsaw Pact stock. I could see some reasoning being that the Ukrainian army is familiar with this equipment and can immediately use it, know how to maintain it, and potentially have supplies and spare parts for it.

That makes sense especially for stuff like planes and vehicles.

Glad it wasn't what Germany had been relying on for 30 years

[celedhring]

According to what I've read, those APCs were sold to Sweden and were in service until the 2000s, and then passed to the Czechs. They can't be in that bad a shape. Germany has okay-ed it's re-export.

[Syt]

According to what I've read, those APCs were sold to Sweden and were in service until the 2000s, and then passed to the Czechs. They can't be in that bad a shape. Germany has okay-ed it's re-export.

Ok, that makes sense. Yes, Germany has stipulations like that on a lot of equipment they sold off, that they could veto a re-sale.

[Legbiter]

Ukraine has been making steady gains, especially in the North for the last week now. 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1509918958606241794

[Barrister]

Ukraine has been making steady gains, especially in the North for the last week now. 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1509918958606241794

A lot of this does seem connected to the fact that Russia is actively pulling its forces out of these areas.