Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[jimmy olsen]

I wonder if they'll blow the crimea Bridge.

Odd that this hasn't been done yet.

I presume that, as a key infrastructure, it's heavily covered with AA.

One would think the same about Belgorod though.

[Tamas]

I am no expert but I think you need a helluva' more to destroy a big bridge than a couple of helos firing unguided missiles. You'd have to have your jets get through SAMs and actually manage to destroy the thing - probably a suicide mission with slim chance of success.

[celedhring]

Now I need to rewatch "The Dambusters" 

[Josquius]

I have read that crimea bridge is quite badly built and it seems a few well placed missiles could knock it out of commission for a while.
Ukraine does have cruise missiles.

I wonder if there's a worry on hitting civilian targets and giving Russia an excuse for blasting Ukranian cities more than they already are?

[DGuller]

Doesn't Ukraine have some cruise missiles as well?  I'm not sure why I think that, but I recall reading that they have a little bit of them.  They're probably saving them, just like a lot of their other military assets with offensive capabilities, for a special occasion.

[celedhring]

Doesn't Ukraine have some cruise missiles as well?  I'm not sure why I think that, but I recall reading that they have a little bit of them.  They're probably saving them, just like a lot of their other military assets with offensive capabilities, for a special occasion.

IIRC cruise missiles are insanely expensive so you kinda have to be really picky with targets. Unless you're the US.

[Legbiter]

So Ben Wallace gave an update after latest talks on sending supplies to Ukraine. The thing that struck me (but I know nothing about military stuff) is after the anti-tank and anti-air stuff earlier in the war, the move here to talking about protective vehicles (but not tanks) and artillery - is that a sign that Ukraine's looking for more stuff that could be used in counter-offensives or am I wrong?

Presumably this is a bit more long-term, sending unfamiliar artillery systems with a big logistics footprint into an active warzone is not something that gets done in a few days.

[DGuller]

I've seen some speculation that the Belgorod attack could've been a false flag attack by Russia, in order to justify greater level of military mobilization for the war.  That said, other voices are saying that Russians would destroy something less useful, like an apartment building full of Russians, rather than an oil depot, and that the attack is too embarrassing for Russians to stage on themselves.  So far I didn't see Ukraine owning up to it, but I also didn't see Russia make a big deal out of it, so it probably is a legit Ukrainian attack that they're choosing to not talk about yet.

[Richard Hakluyt]

I've seen some speculation that the Belgorod attack could've been a false flag attack by Russia, in order to justify greater level of military mobilization for the war.  That said, other voices are saying that Russians would destroy something less useful, like an apartment building full of Russians, rather than an oil depot, and that the attack is too embarrassing for Russians to stage on themselves.  So far I didn't see Ukraine owning up to it, but I also didn't see Russia make a big deal out of it, so it probably is a legit Ukrainian attack that they're choosing to not talk about yet.

Yeah, the false flag would surely be a Russian primary school or something similar.

A fuel depot near the border, well done Ukraine 

[Barrister]

Very interesting that Ukraine apparently hit the fuel depot in Belgorod, Russia.

On the one hand - Russia is at war with Ukraine.  It's not like Ukraine really risks further escalation from Russia, and Ukraine has been going after Russia's fuel and logistics pretty hard.

What it does though is risk getting further "offensive" weaponry from the west, as the west does not want to see it's weapons used to strike Russia.

[DGuller]

Saw the statement by Ukrainian spokesman:

"The Russian leadership is responsible for what happens on the territory of the #Russian Federation, and they need to figure out what happened in Belgorod."

What is not transcribed here is a literal wink from the spokesman immediately after saying this.    I think we can count this one as confirmed by Ukraine.

[Jacob]

Very interesting that Ukraine apparently hit the fuel depot in Belgorod, Russia.

On the one hand - Russia is at war with Ukraine.  It's not like Ukraine really risks further escalation from Russia, and Ukraine has been going after Russia's fuel and logistics pretty hard.

What it does though is risk getting further "offensive" weaponry from the west, as the west does not want to see it's weapons used to strike Russia.

Is that so? The West doesn't want to see its weapons used to strike Russia?

I mean, I don't speak for the West, but personally I'm fine with it.

[Barrister]

Interesting article (in English) about the experience of one town, Trostyanets, under one month of Russian occupation.

https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/liberated-from-the-russians-a-visit-to-trostyanets-after-the-end-of-the-occupation-a-c088be53-5f6c-4059-8d46-68803276e473

[celedhring]

Interesting article (in English) about the experience of one town, Trostyanets, under one month of Russian occupation.

https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/liberated-from-the-russians-a-visit-to-trostyanets-after-the-end-of-the-occupation-a-c088be53-5f6c-4059-8d46-68803276e473

Christ, that's grim.

[DGuller]

Very interesting that Ukraine apparently hit the fuel depot in Belgorod, Russia.

On the one hand - Russia is at war with Ukraine.  It's not like Ukraine really risks further escalation from Russia, and Ukraine has been going after Russia's fuel and logistics pretty hard.

What it does though is risk getting further "offensive" weaponry from the west, as the west does not want to see it's weapons used to strike Russia.

Is that so? The West doesn't want to see its weapons used to strike Russia?

I mean, I don't speak for the West, but personally I'm fine with it.

I'm fine with it as well, in case anyone's curious.  I hope the West realizes two things now:  Russia is no longer in position where the West should worry like a battered wife about what Putin will think about this or that, and that Ukraine can't defend itself while allowing Russia to use the entirety of its territory as a base of operations that's off-limits to Ukraine.