Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Grey Fox]

It's not going to be France, Zoupa. Give that dream up.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

The Russians seem to be trying to take the initiative again with renewed attacks, including in the area of avdivka. Doesn't seem to successful ATM.

What is successful is the attempts at shifting western focus away from this.
Which just shows that we've been far to timid in pushing the riskiest out of Ukraine.

[Hamilcar]

Wonder what happens to Ukrainian military aid from the US now because of the ongoing Speaker kerfuffle? 

These military aid tranches won't get approved this year?

Supporting Ukraine has been about preserving the international order.
If Trump gets in, then Europe must fully take on the job of supporting and financing Ukraine, not just to preserve said order, but then it'll also be about preserving democracy.

80 or so years along, and it may be Germany who leads the defence of liberal democracy against the forces of fascism.

It will be the EU Commission. With their aircraft carrier. Which they want.

[Zoupa]

It's not going to be France, Zoupa. Give that dream up.

The whole game is to use the EU as a vehicle or multiplier for French hard power and influence.

That's the theory. In practice, the Quai d'Orsay and all French presidents have been TERRIBLE at it, probably because of arrogance and 19th century thinking.

[Jacob]

Analysis by Anders Puck Nielsen

As always, insightful

The summary:

Ukrainian offensive has not culminated. It will likely slow down during mud-season, but may very will pick again once the ground is frozen.

On the Russian side, there was no new wave of large mobilization, just the regular draft. Additionally, it is likely that there will be no mobilization until after the Putin's re-election in March 2024.

It appears that the Russian forces will not be reinforced or rotated out of the line of battle until next year, leaving them potentially brittle.

[Legbiter]

There's been a fairly big Russian push towards Avdiivka for some time now. It's been a total slaughter for the Russians.

[Legbiter]

Seems the assault failed completely and about 2 russki brigades got all but wiped out. It's even worse than Vuhledar. 

[Jacob]

That sounds encouraging, especially if there are no substantial relief coming until next year.

[Josquius]

Lot of muttering Ukraine knew about this ahead of time. They had everything so perfectly in place to react.

Also that it's a sign of Russian idiocy. The local general has been given these resources and is determined to use them even when it's clear things are going nowhere.

I do hear the Russians are having more success further north though? - as they have been most of the year really, made decent gains there. But not much word about this to be found at all.

Which strikes me as odd. As if i was the Russian leadership it seems it would be smart to invade Ukraine from the north again rather than constantly trying to attack beyond the secure lines in the south.

[Jacob]

Putin claims Russia is making good progress around Adiivka.

[Legbiter]

It was a tremendous success in everything except military gains.

They've run out of tanks and IFVs temporarily but still seem to be sending meatwaves.   

[jimmy olsen]

Luigi Cadorna style generalship. Just a stunning level of WTF incompetence.
https://twitter.com/waflworld/status/1713795673374507185

[Jacob]

Any non-twitter sources or a summary of what happened?

[DGuller]

Luigi Cadorna style generalship. Just a stunning level of WTF incompetence.
https://twitter.com/waflworld/status/1713795673374507185

The most WTF part was that one initial survivor continuing on to climb the mountain.  What was he planning to do if he did manage to climb on top, with everyone else already dead?  Alas, we'll never find out.

This reminds me of some of the HOI4 games prior to the last patch.  As a Soviet Union, when I annexed my Republican Spain puppet, there were always some units that came with it that even Joseph Stalin himself couldn't disband.  He could order them to do a force attack, though:  the trick was to find the enemy target that couldn't possibly lose, so that everyone in the unit would die before they would be able to be replenished.

[jimmy olsen]

Any non-twitter sources or a summary of what happened?

https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/10/16/frontline-report-russias-failed-frontal-assault-on-avdiivka-coal-spoil-tip-shows-russian-strategic-lapses/