Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Tamas]

The UK's armed forces minister said Russia had failed to achieve its initial objectives – and fighting outside Kyiv was limited to Russian special forces units.

Speaking to BBC Radio 4's Today programme, James Heappey said Russian aims to take key Ukrainian cities had not been successful. He said the UK did not believe Russian claims that it had taken the southeastern city of Melitopol.

"The Ukrainian resistance to the Russian advance appears extraordinary. All of Russia's day one objectives of Kharkiv, Kherson , Mariupol, Sumy and even Melitopol, which the Russians are claiming to taken but we can't see anything on that, are still all in Ukrainian hands.

"The fighting on the outskirts of Kyiv overnight, we understand to just be Russian spetsnaz special forces and pockets of paratroopers. The reality is the armoured columns coming down from Belarus and the north to encircle Kyiv are still way off, because they have been held off by this incredible Ukrainian resistance."

I hope this is true.

If Russia tried to take/cutoff Kyiv with just special forces and light units to me it'd indicate they really expected far less resistance.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

purely theoretical question: couldn't the Budapest Memorandum have been used as a reason to send in troops (only of signatories I guess though) to defend the country from aggression?

[Jacob]

The US claims the Ukranians have shot down two Il-76s. That's a couple hundred paratroops gone, just because of recklessness. Seen a video of a Russian POW (a kid) scared shitless claiming he was just doing traning and then shipped off to the front.

The Russian army doesn't give a fuck even about their own.

If they're telling people "you're just doing training" and then sending them to the front... that's not indicative of a high morale coherent effective force, I'd think.

And then you compare that to the Ukrainians who are very aware they're in an existential struggle and seem highly motivated.

I guess we may see how much of a difference morale makes in modern warfare.

[Josquius]

I guess Russia has a mix of professional murderers and warm bodies there to stand around behind them and die. The question is what is the ratio.
Interesting Russia is covering up the casualties. "Evil Ukrainian nazis murder Russian peace keepers" seems it would be a good narrative to take.

purely theoretical question: couldn't the Budapest Memorandum have been used as a reason to send in troops (only of signatories I guess though) to defend the country from aggression?

Sure seems comparable to the Treaty of London;  Germany had signed that one and they invaded Belgium.

[Jacob]

purely theoretical question: couldn't the Budapest Memorandum have been used as a reason to send in troops (only of signatories I guess though) to defend the country from aggression?

I think so, but that means American troops vs Russian troops which gets us into the escalating fighting which potentially leads to nuclear exchanges. Basically the main value of whatever treaty or alliance is in place is whether it'll deter Russia from attacking in the first place... and while the Budapest Memorandum technically could've triggered that sort of response (maybe), it didn't deter Putin because he (correctly) didn't think the US and the other signatories would throw down.

[Jacob]

Apparently Poland has sent a convoy with ammunition to Ukraine and it arrived last night:

A convoy with ammunition from Poland has arrived in Ukraine, the Polish minister of defense has announced.

Mariusz Błaszczak wrote on Twitter on Friday that "Poland supports and is in solidarity with the Ukrainian people," as he announced that a convoy with ammunition had reached that country.

"Poland firmly opposes the Russian aggression," he added.

The defense minister said that, in early February, the government had adopted a resolution on aid to Ukraine. "We will provide the most state-of-the-art Polish equipment - Polish Man-Portable Air Defense Missiles (MANPADS) - as well as ammunition," Błaszczak said.

Russia, on Thursday, launched an attack on cities and military installations across Ukraine, forcing thousands of civilians to flee the country.

https://www.thefirstnews.com/article/convoy-with-ammunition-from-poland-reaches-ukraine-28184

I hope the MANPADS were in that delivery.

[Tamas]

Cyprus allegedly said they'd stop blocking the SWIFT ban. Which by my tally leaves Hungary as the last holdout. Glorious.

[Jacob]

I hope this is true.

If Russia tried to take/cutoff Kyiv with just special forces and light units to me it'd indicate they really expected far less resistance.

Yeah for sure, and they probably expected the reinforcements to arrive faster as well, if that report is true. It would be fantastic if those special forces and light units were isolated and neutralized before the Russian columns arrive.

[Josquius]

Cyprus allegedly said they'd stop blocking the SWIFT ban. Which by my tally leaves Hungary as the last holdout. Glorious.

How about we say there'll be a ban. You can be on the Russian side of the fence and be part of the ban or the civilized world side and enforce the ban.

[celedhring]

Do we care about Hungary on this? I don't think SWIFT is formally an EU Council decision (I might be wrong), it's not an EU institution.

[HVC]

While Ukraine fights for its existence Europe purchase of Russian gas spikes

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/markets/russian-gas-flows-to-europe-via-ukraine-reportedly-jumped-nearly-40percent-on-thursday-underscoring-the-continents-dependence-on-putins-energy/ar-AAUiuva?li=AAggNb9

[Syt]

The US claims the Ukranians have shot down two Il-76s. That's a couple hundred paratroops gone, just because of recklessness. Seen a video of a Russian POW (a kid) scared shitless claiming he was just doing traning and then shipped off to the front.

The Russian army doesn't give a fuck even about their own.

If they're telling people "you're just doing training" and then sending them to the front... that's not indicative of a high morale coherent effective force, I'd think.

And then you compare that to the Ukrainians who are very aware they're in an existential struggle and seem highly motivated.

I guess we may see how much of a difference morale makes in modern warfare.

I keep seeing that Moscow also brought in ca. 5000 Chechens "volunteers", though substantiating that claim is difficult. With less of a cultural and friendly connection between Ukrainians and Chechens, I'm wondering what their role would be. Doing the jobs that "regular" Russians might be too squeamish to do? Occupation duty?

[Syt]

While Ukraine fights for its existence Europe purchase of Russian gas spikes

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/markets/russian-gas-flows-to-europe-via-ukraine-reportedly-jumped-nearly-40percent-on-thursday-underscoring-the-continents-dependence-on-putins-energy/ar-AAUiuva?li=AAggNb9

Gotta get in your final rounds before last order is called.

[Admiral Yi]

Do we care about Hungary on this? I don't think SWIFT is formally an EU Council decision (I might be wrong), it's not an EU institution.

My understanding is it's a purely US decision.

But Biden seems to think getting all of Europe on board is important.

[Syt]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-25/chinese-state-banks-restrict-financing-for-russian-commodities

China State Banks Restrict Financing for Russian Commodities

* ICBC stops issuing letters of credit after Ukraine invasion
* China's top banks have complied with previous U.S. sanctions

Bloomberg News
February 25, 2022, 3:43 PM GMT+1Updated onFebruary 25, 2022, 4:07 PM GMT+1

At least two of China's largest state-owned banks are restricting financing for purchases of Russian commodities, underscoring the limits of Beijing's pledge to maintain economic ties with one of its most important strategic partners in the face of sanctions by the U.S. and its allies.

Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd.'s offshore units stopped issuing U.S. dollar-denominated letters of credit for purchases of physical Russian commodities ready for export, two people familiar with the matter said. Yuan-denominated letters of credit are still available for some clients, subject to approvals from senior executives, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing private information.

The move followed Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which triggered a wave of sanctions from countries including the U.S., the U.K. and Japan and stoked speculation that more may follow. Because commodity-linked letters of credit are issued so frequently, they would be among the first transactions impacted by the threat of sanctions.

Bank of China Ltd. has also curbed financing for Russian commodities based on its own risk assessment, another person said. The lender has yet to receive explicit guidance on Russia from Chinese regulators, two people said.

The Chinese banks' response could be temporary, especially given that Western sanctions have so far spared Russia's energy sector. It's unclear whether Chinese banks have pulled back from other forms of financing for Russian companies and individuals, and their policies could change.

The curbs highlight the difficult balancing act facing China's biggest financial institutions and the nation's president, Xi Jinping. While Russia is a major energy supplier to China and the countries often find themselves aligned in geopolitical disputes with the U.S., Russia's economic weight pales in comparison to Western nations that buy many of China's exports and control its access to the dollar-dominated international financial system.

China's four largest banks have complied with previous U.S. sanctions against Iran, North Korea and even top officials in Hong Kong because they need access to the U.S. dollar clearing system, a person familiar with the matter said. In a phone call with Vladimir Putin on Friday, Xi urged the Russian leader to negotiate with Ukraine to defuse tensions.

"Chinese financial institutions take sanctions compliance seriously," said Ben Kostrzewa, foreign legal consultant at Hogan Lovells in Hong Kong, who formerly handled U.S.-China disputes and negotiations at the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. "They don't want to be sanctioned themselves, they can't lose access to U.S. dollar transactions, so they are going to have to think about it very seriously -- whatever the geopolitical impact might be."

ICBC, Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission didn't immediately respond to requests for comment.

With international lenders including ING Groep NV and Rabobank also imposing restrictions on commodity-trade finance linked to Russia, demand for the nation's resource exports could dwindle. Chinese state-owned coal importers are unable to get credit lines from banks in Singapore for shipments from Russia, people familiar with the matter said.

U.S. sanctions put China's state-owned financial institutions in a tough spot because many have established close ties with Russia over the past decade.

ICBC's Moscow branch alone had close to $1 billion of assets by the end of 2020 and offered an extensive range of yuan-denominated services, including deposits, lending, cross-border settlement and trade finance. Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China Ltd. and China Construction Bank Corp. all have operations in Russia.

China's largest policy banks -- China Development Bank and Export-Import Bank of China -- have provided tens of billions of dollars of credit to Russia as part of Xi's Belt-and-Road Initiative, funding everything from infrastructure to oil and gas.