Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Jacob]

So now we see how it goes.

Will Putin decapitate the Ukrainian government and seize control almost bloodlessly? Or will Ukraine resist, and how hard?

[DGuller]

So now we see how it goes.

Will Putin decapitate the Ukrainian government and seize control almost bloodlessly? Or will Ukraine resist, and how hard?

My guess is both.  I think Zelensky ensured a catastrophic military defeat of Ukraine in the first days, and I wouldn't be surprised if all of Ukraine east of Dniepr would be in Russian hands in a matter of days.  I do think that partisan warfare would eventually ensue and be brutal.

[Jacob]

... and I guess now is the time to trigger all of the sanctions.

[Jacob]

My guess is both.  I think Zelensky ensured a catastrophic military defeat of Ukraine in the first days, and I wouldn't be surprised if all of Ukraine east of Dniepr would be in Russian hands in a matter of days.  I do think that partisan warfare would eventually ensue and be brutal.

How so? Because he was saying "they won't attack" and thus military readiness is low?

[Admiral Yi]

So now I can say it.  American credibility, hells yeah!

[Jacob]

So now I can say it.  American credibility, hells yeah!

So far, I think the US has handled this in a credible way.

[Admiral Yi]

So far, I think the US has handled this in a credible way.

I'm referring to the constant warnings of invasion.

[Jacob]

So far, I think the US has handled this in a credible way.

I'm referring to the constant warnings of invasion.

Me too. And the way the US handled that information adds to its credibility.

[DGuller]

My guess is both.  I think Zelensky ensured a catastrophic military defeat of Ukraine in the first days, and I wouldn't be surprised if all of Ukraine east of Dniepr would be in Russian hands in a matter of days.  I do think that partisan warfare would eventually ensue and be brutal.

How so? Because he was saying "they won't attack" and thus military readiness is low?

Mainly that, yes.  He should've known for two months that Russia was going to attack, and yet he mobilizes reserves literally a day before the invasion?  I watched his New Year's address, wondering what he would say about the war situation that everyone was discussing, and he gave the most meaningless and empty meandering praise of Ukrainian people for 15 minutes, and completely ignored the elephant in the room.  Not exactly Churchill material.  Most of the country still didn't believe the war would come right before the war came.  It's not just the military readiness that's low, but also citizen readiness.

Another reason is that his effectiveness as an administrator was about what you would expect from a comedian who decided to dabble in presidency.  I imagine that his team picked for personal loyalty over competence would not make the best military and intelligence decisions in the run-up to the war.

[Jacob]

I'm seeing a talking head saying that the forces that Russia has assembled is not sufficient to take (much less hold) all of Ukraine.

[mongers]

4:12
Trump: Putin saw US 'weakness'

Former US President Donald Trump took to the airwaves on Fox News as the Russian offensive began on Wednesday night US time to argue that it "wouldn't have taken place" during his administration.

Trump phoned in to say he didn't believe that Putin "wanted to do this, initially".

"I think he wanted to do something and negotiate, and it got worse and worse, and then he saw the weakness," Trump said.

Additionally, Trump said that he believes the Russian invasion was partly prompted by the "weakness" of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Real class.

[Valmy]

So maybe the idea is that he takes the capital and installs a Russian friendly regime?

[Jacob]

So maybe the idea is that he takes the capital and installs a Russian friendly regime?

That's my guess at this point.

[jimmy olsen]

4:12
Trump: Putin saw US 'weakness'

Former US President Donald Trump took to the airwaves on Fox News as the Russian offensive began on Wednesday night US time to argue that it "wouldn't have taken place" during his administration.

Trump phoned in to say he didn't believe that Putin "wanted to do this, initially".

"I think he wanted to do something and negotiate, and it got worse and worse, and then he saw the weakness," Trump said.

Additionally, Trump said that he believes the Russian invasion was partly prompted by the "weakness" of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Real class.

The withdrawal that he began?

[DGuller]

So maybe the idea is that he takes the capital and installs a Russian friendly regime?

That's my guess at this point.

I don't see this.  You don't just run a country because you say you run a country, and definitely not if that country is Ukraine.  If Russians capture Kiev, replace the government, and leave it at that, then the rest of unoccupied Ukraine will follow the orders from Lviv.