Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[DGuller]

But if he runs over the country, installs a puppet and then leaves, wouldn't that create a power vacuum with potential for the West to gain more influence?

I don't think he would leave immediately.  I'm sure Russian military would be in Ukraine for a while, as a backup muscle for when Ukrainian puppet militia needs help with getting compliance.

[Admiral Yi]

I don't see a regime change.  I see an offer to withdraw if Ukraine recognizes the "independence" of the Donbas.

[Syt]

I don't see a regime change.  I see an offer to withdraw if Ukraine recognizes the "independence" of the Donbas.

The operation at first glance seems larger than that.

[Jacob]

Seeing a talking head saying he expects that after a period of fighting, diplomatic exchanges will be handled via Asia (Israel, China, India, N & S Korea, maybe Japan and Singapore) due to connections there with both Ukraine and Russia.

[DGuller]

I don't see a regime change.  I see an offer to withdraw if Ukraine recognizes the "independence" of the Donbas.

That I can bet on.  Or rather against.  No way is Russia going to undertake all this just for parts of two Ukrainian regions.  If you're going to make a move like this, you're going to take all you can get, because you won't have that opportunity again.

[Syt]

Apparently Putin referred in his speech to Stalin and how he tried to delay the German attack by avoiding all provocations in 1940/41 and was then not prepared for the actual invasion. He said he will not repeat that mistake.

Funnily, I feel in this situation the roles are reversed, though, with Ukraine having been the ones to avoid provocations and potentially being underprepared.

[Jacob]

That I can bet on.  Or rather against.  No way is Russia going to undertake all this just for parts of two Ukrainian regions.  If you're going to make a move like this, you're going to take all you can get, because you won't have that opportunity again.

Yeah... the thing I guess we're all trying to figure out is what is the "all you can get" that Putin is aiming for.

[DGuller]

Apparently Putin referred in his speech to Stalin and how he tried to delay the German attack by avoiding all provocations in 1940/41 and was then not prepared for the actual invasion. He said he will not repeat that mistake.

Funnily, I feel in this situation the roles are reversed, though, with Ukraine having been the ones to avoid provocations and potentially being underprepared.

If you want to figure out what the Russian are up to, just listen to what they're accusing others of doing.  Maybe that was the whole secret to the impressive US intelligence in the run-up to the war? 

[Zanza]

This is just sad.

[DGuller]

The air raid sirens give me the deepest of creeps. 

[Admiral Yi]

That I can bet on.  Or rather against.  No way is Russia going to undertake all this just for parts of two Ukrainian regions.  If you're going to make a move like this, you're going to take all you can get, because you won't have that opportunity again.

It's a more realistic end game than regime change.

Actor dude's government goes into exile, no international recognition, the Ukrainian people don't recognize it.  It's a dead end.

[DGuller]

That I can bet on.  Or rather against.  No way is Russia going to undertake all this just for parts of two Ukrainian regions.  If you're going to make a move like this, you're going to take all you can get, because you won't have that opportunity again.

It's a more realistic end game than regime change.

Actor dude's government goes into exile, no international recognition, the Ukrainian people don't recognize it.  It's a dead end.

Russia killed about half a dozen Chechen presidents in exile or so, until eventually the Chechen exiles ran out of candidates.  At some point recognition comes at the barrel of a gun, if the owners of said guns walk around the areas they claim to control long enough.

[Syt]

What I find remarkable is that Putin has failed to present much of a reasonable excuse this time, also thanks to the very public sharing of intelligence by the US. Overall, he's cast as a villain in this. With Crimea, there were still plenty apologists who excused the occupation, and FPÖ politicians from Austria happily flew over to attest the legitimacy of the post fact referendum. (There'll be some incorrigible holdouts, obviously.)

[The Larch]

Latvian PM calls for NATO consultations under Article 4.

[jimmy olsen]

Ukraine has 44 million people. The Russians are rolling in with 200k. That's less than one Russian soldier for every 200 Ukrainian.

I don't think Russia plans to garrison Ukraine with combat units.

Also, is it really that much different from US rolling in with 200k troops into a country of 25 million?  Clearly in that case 200k troops were more than enough to win the war.

Remind me of what came after? Did the occupation go smoothly?