Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[grumbler]

Apparently, two more Russian warships are sleeping with fishes today.

Boats, not ships, but I was really impressed by the Ukrainian targeting of the second, maneuvering boat.  Their weapons control guys are good!

[Jacob]

What do you all make of Russia's apparent positioning on Transnistria?

Seems to me they're not in a position to expand the war, given their overall progress and manpower constraints. Is it attempt to get a victory from a weaker opponent, so Putin will at least have something to brag about? Some sort of "the war in Ukraine was a feint to liberate Transnistria" malarkey?

[Josquius]

What do you all make of Russia's apparent positioning on Transnistria?

Seems to me they're not in a position to expand the war, given their overall progress and manpower constraints. Is it attempt to get a victory from a weaker opponent, so Putin will at least have something to brag about? Some sort of "the war in Ukraine was a feint to liberate Transnistria" malarkey?

Is it Russia?
As you say that would be a dumb move from them. Ukranian troops in the west have a quick victory and then they no longer have to guard that flank.
I prefer the theory it's loopy factions within Transnistria trying to force Russias hand.

[Barrister]

Is it Russia?
As you say that would be a dumb move from them. Ukranian troops in the west have a quick victory and then they no longer have to guard that flank.
I prefer the theory it's loopy factions within Transnistria trying to force Russias hand.

Transnistra is a pure Russian puppet - it doesn't do anything without the Kremlin's say-so.

If the Russian/Transnistrian forces do anything, I think it is just as another sign of Putin's repeated tactic of doubling down when he's losing.

[Josquius]

Is it Russia?
As you say that would be a dumb move from them. Ukranian troops in the west have a quick victory and then they no longer have to guard that flank.
I prefer the theory it's loopy factions within Transnistria trying to force Russias hand.

Transnistra is a pure Russian puppet - it doesn't do anything without the Kremlin's say-so.

If the Russian/Transnistrian forces do anything, I think it is just as another sign of Putin's repeated tactic of doubling down when he's losing.

You overstate Russias power. Even is within a Russian puppet there will be differences of opinion on the best course of action, with some wanting to do nothing until Russia says so whilst others look to use the relationship for their perceived advantage.

[celedhring]

So, Russia is already at the stage of accusing Israel of being nazi sympathizers.

Doubling down on Lavrov's previous remarks, AFP reports the Russian foreign ministry said on Tuesday:

 We have paid attention to foreign minister Yair Lapid's anti-historical remarks, which largely explain the current government's decision to support the neo-Nazi regime in Kyiv."

Israel remains one of the few western countries that has yet to sanction Russia or provide military aid to Ukraine.

[DGuller]

To be fair, that's one of the more mainstream accusations they leveled as of late.  Plenty of cool kids called Israelis Nazis for a long while.

[Valmy]

So, Russia is already at the stage of accusing Israel of being nazi sympathizers.

Putin blamed Poland and Finland for being invaded by the USSR because they were pro-Nazi...despite the USSR being a Nazi ally at the time of invasion.

I think Nazi has just come to be code for opposed to the goals and interests of the Russian government.

[The Larch]

I think Nazi has just come to be code for opposed to the goals and interests of the Russian government.

Several comentators on the current attitudes in Russia stated so at the beginning of the war.

[Legbiter]

What do you all make of Russia's apparent positioning on Transnistria?

Seems to me they're not in a position to expand the war, given their overall progress and manpower constraints. Is it attempt to get a victory from a weaker opponent, so Putin will at least have something to brag about? Some sort of "the war in Ukraine was a feint to liberate Transnistria" malarkey?

Yeah.

The plan was to link up with Transnistria once the south of Ukraine had completely fallen. Cisniestria/Moldova would have been intimidated into Russia's sphere of influence subsequently. Plan went to shit of course but the Russians seem to have somewhat kept to their timetable despite the realities on the ground. 

[Barrister]

So, Russia is already at the stage of accusing Israel of being nazi sympathizers.

Putin blamed Poland and Finland for being invaded by the USSR because they were pro-Nazi...despite the USSR being a Nazi ally at the time of invasion.

I think Nazi has just come to be code for opposed to the goals and interests of the Russian government.

I've been saying this for awhile.

The USSR fought the Nazis in WWII, therefore anyone Russia fights with is a Nazi.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

I think Nazi has just come to be code for opposed to the goals and interests of the Russian government.

Several comentators on the current attitudes in Russia stated so at the beginning of the war.

and they've been referenced in this thread, more than once too. (kamil kazani, twitter, one of those long threads iirc)

[Jacob]

and they've been referenced in this thread, more than once too. (kamil kazani, twitter, one of those long threads iirc)

Which I think is an excellent and straightforward example of how social media does define and move opinion.

Valmy posted this as - I believe - something he's come around to thinking without any specific references. Several folks have mentioned it on languish previously, myself included I believe. For my part I picked it up on twitter (from Kamil Kazani as you pointed out), and while I find his argument persuasive I'm not super aware of any other ideological agenda he may have (one thing that I find interesting re: Kazani is his strong anti-Navalny and anti-Russian-Liberal position).

So if Valmy did pick it up from us here on Languish, there's a good chance that he's started arguing Kazani's position without even being aware of who Kazani is. Which is kind of interesting and, IMO, indicative of how propaganda and social media does in fact matter and work, in spite of all of us holding ourselves to be rational thinkers who are not easily manipulated (while still recognizing that OTHER people, especially broad population groups, are being swayed).

This is not to pick on Valmy. I think most of us here (myself included) have done something similar more than once. I recall a number of threads where people have posted stuff as news / observations when their source was a post in the thread a few days earlier.

Mild digression. Back to the usual topic.

[Josquius]

I think Nazi has just come to be code for opposed to the goals and interests of the Russian government.

Several comentators on the current attitudes in Russia stated so at the beginning of the war.

and they've been referenced in this thread, more than once too. (kamil kazani, twitter, one of those long threads iirc)

I do wonder if the choice of calling their enemies nazis was intentional* due to the typical tactics of the modern far right, as personified in Putin and previously by trump and Co, in pre-emptively slinging insults at your opponent before they find their way very naturally to you due to actual things you've done.
Basically Putin and his people know they're fascists and fascism is not cool in Russia... So they need to head off that label.


* beyond the obvious reason of nazis being so universally agreed to be bad and their defeat a big matter of national price in Russia.

To be fair, that's one of the more mainstream accusations they leveled as of late.  Plenty of cool kids called Israelis Nazis for a long while.

Ish. Definitely see lots of Israel is no better than the nazis, they're doing the same, etc... But even the nuttiest of anti Israel sorts wouldn't say Israel is literally in league with the nazi-nazis.
Though there certainly is some mutual petting between them and neo nazis what with Muslims being the new Jews.

What do you all make of Russia's apparent positioning on Transnistria?

Seems to me they're not in a position to expand the war, given their overall progress and manpower constraints. Is it attempt to get a victory from a weaker opponent, so Putin will at least have something to brag about? Some sort of "the war in Ukraine was a feint to liberate Transnistria" malarkey?

Yeah.

The plan was to link up with Transnistria once the south of Ukraine had completely fallen. Cisniestria/Moldova would have been intimidated into Russia's sphere of influence subsequently. Plan went to shit of course but the Russians seem to have somewhat kept to their timetable despite the realities on the ground. 

Maybe Barrister is right? They forgot to tell Transnistria the plan had changed and Transnistria just blindly went along following orders?

As I have trouble believing even putins Russia is so incompetent as to decide to try and open a new front now.

[Jacob]

Just saw a report that the warehouse of the book publisher that was ordered to remove all references to "Ukraine" is on fire.