Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Jacob]

NEXTA
@nexta_tv
According to "Kommersant", most #Russian airlines received notification from #European lessors about the termination of reinsurance contracts on the night of March 8. Aviators interpret this as an inability to perform flights.

Relatedly the CEOs of several Russian airlines, including Aeroflot have stepped down.

Everyone is getting in there to put the boot in. It's quite something to behold.

According to Business Insider, most of the Kremlin were surprised by the invasion - especially the scope - and completely shocked by the Western response. And, it seems, Putin is furious.

Relevant excerpt:

The Kremlin is particularly concerned by its ousting from SWIFT, the freezing of Russian foreign reserves, including by the US, and the exit of a string of Western companies from Russia, Agency reported.

"Everything is fucked," a source close to Putin's administration told the outlet.

Before the invasion, one of the officials told Agency, Kremlin officials held several meetings about sanctions and that stress tests were conducted on large companies in case Russia was disconnected from SWIFT.

An official went on to tell Agency that Kremlin officials cannot resign from their posts because it would be seen as a betrayal. "You can only quit to prison," they said.

https://www.businessinsider.com/kremlin-staff-didnt-expect-ukraine-invasion-sanctions-shock-report-2022-3?utm_source=reddit.com

[Razgovory]

He thought we were weak...

[The Larch]

Isn't Wagner Group still active in Africa?  It would be a real shame if something happened to their cadres there. 
Plausible deniability is a 2 way street.

I think I read that most of the Wagners deployed in Africa were taken back to Russia in january and most of them infiltrated Ukraine ahead of the invasion and are hanging around Kiev with the specific mission of assasinating Zelensky and other Ukranian leaders. There were reports earlier this week about Zelensky having survived already three attempts on his life by Wagner and Chechen units, apparently thwarted because the Ukranian government have FSB sources that are against the war and are feeding them intel on those units.

President Zelensky has survived at least three assassination attempts in the past week, The Times has learnt.

Two different outfits have been sent to kill the Ukrainian president — mercenaries of the Kremlin-backed Wagner group and Chechen special forces. Both have been thwarted by anti-war elements within Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB).

Wagner mercenaries in Kyiv have sustained losses during their attempts and are said to have been alarmed by how accurately the Ukrainians had anticipated their moves. A source close to the group said it was "eerie" how well briefed Zelensky's security team appeared to be.

Austria pledges to raise military spending. To 1% of GDP (currently 0.74%), starting next year. That seems ... modest. Esp. since Austrian military equipment and maintenance is possibly in worse shape than the German one.

But with Austria not being in NATO and joining it not being in the cards, how's the country structuring its military cooperation with partners? Exclusively through the EU?

There's been lots of inchoate tallk of new EU measures (although this is constitutionally problematic for some member states) or a wider European security arrangement (including the UK), but my suspicion is whatever happens will probably build off those minilateral deeper relations.

(...)

There's talk about more funding for the Defence Forces in Ireland which I would never imagine. It's proving pretty contentious because of the politics of military neutrality in Ireland  but it's the first time I've seen politicians making a case for more funding.

I have the feeling that after this crisis is over and depending on the final results several European countries will have to deeply evaluate their stance towards military alliances, state neutrality and things like that. Things like constitutionally enforced neutrality made sense in a post-WWII world, but they might not make sense anymore because the post-WWII/post-Cold War world might be over and we might be entering in a new geopolitical era. Sweden and Finland are already veering into joining NATO, but what about Austria's "permanent neutrality"? Or Ireland's case. If the EU managed to pull off something resembling a common army it might do the trick, but that remains to be seen.

One question I've not seen addressed is why Putin waited until now to pull this move. Why not do it when Trump was still president? There is no way the blowback would have been as damaging to Russia if Trump was still around to screw up US diplomacy.

I think this is maybe one of the questions that future historians will have to face in the future, what made Putin pull the trigger at this very moment. I think he has repeated more than once something akin to "we were running out of time", or something to that effect, so I guess that he thought that if he didn't act now, Ukraine would drift far too westwards for him to recitfy that, I imagine.

[viper37]

Now the gloves are coming off:

Canadian diner removes poutine from name because it sounds like Putin

a popular Canadian dish



cultural appropriation to the thousand.  Pfft,  as if Canadians knew anything of gastronomy...

[viper37]

According to this thread being a Russian general is a very dangerous enterprise. 

so few died from natural causes, that you can definately conclude 2 things:
1) Russian roads are extremely dangerous
2) Vodka is good for your health

[Sheilbh]

Extraordinary report from some Sky journalists:
https://news.sky.com/story/sky-news-teams-harrowing-account-of-their-violent-ambush-in-ukraine-this-week-12557585

[Valmy]

I know this isn't the first internet war but man it is weird to have day to day first hand accounts and video from a war as it happens. Even in 2003 in Iraq that didn't really happen.

[Josquius]

According to this thread being a Russian general is a very dangerous enterprise. 

so few died from natural causes, that you can definately conclude 2 things:
1) Russian roads are extremely dangerous
2) Vodka is good for your health

Just hope they don't get one who was counting on being the guy we were all hoping for who leads the coup.

[viper37]

According to this thread being a Russian general is a very dangerous enterprise. 

so few died from natural causes, that you can definately conclude 2 things:
1) Russian roads are extremely dangerous
2) Vodka is good for your health

Just hope they don't get one who was counting on being the guy we were all hoping for who leads the coup.

I'm not holding my breath for a Russian general to openly revolt against the current government.  Not until Putin decides to use nukes, anyway.

[viper37]

Cyber attack knocks thousands offline in Europe

[celedhring]

Regarding Russia's attempts to build a "Great Firewall", my Russian friend is using Instagram stories to share a bunch of anti-war content. Lots of videos from tik-tokers, too. I suppose those might come next, but IG models are probably one of the few export industries remaining in Russia at this moment.

[Jacob]

The Bayraktar video is pretty catchy. Here's another music video attacking the morale of the VDV paratroopers:

(the video is evidently genuine Russian VDV propaganda, with... ahem... updated subtitles)

[Josquius]

Moldova has become an official EU candidate now it seems.
Best response I've seen.
"Ironic. Russia is the reason for the UK leaving the EU and now its the reason for a bunch of other countries joining"

[Syt]

[The Larch]

Moldova has become an official EU candidate now it seems.

No, they've just submitted their application.  It is yet to be accepted.