Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Jacob]

Of course it wouldn't have taken place. Trump would've sold Ukraine out completely in return for hotels in Kiev and Moscow and a few hundred million dollars in offshore accounts.

[Jacob]

I don't see this.  You don't just run a country because you say you run a country, and definitely not if that country is Ukraine.  If Russians capture Kiev, replace the government, and leave it at that, then the rest of unoccupied Ukraine will follow the orders from Lviv.

Yeah makes sense.

What are the likely scenarios at this point?

[DGuller]

I don't see this.  You don't just run a country because you say you run a country, and definitely not if that country is Ukraine.  If Russians capture Kiev, replace the government, and leave it at that, then the rest of unoccupied Ukraine will follow the orders from Lviv.

Yeah makes sense.

What are the likely scenarios at this point?

My guess is a full blown war and invasion, and an egg on the face of all those who claim that Russians don't have enough forces.

[The Larch]

The cynicism...

Russia's UN envoy justifies military action under article 51 of UN charter

Russia's representative to the United Nations, Vasily Nebenzya, has justified Russia's military operations under article 51 of the UN charter, which allows for "self-defence".

Nebenzya defended Russia's decision to take military action in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine during an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council held just moments earlier.

According to Reuters, Nebenzya told the United Nations security council of Putin's announcement of a special military operation in eastern Ukraine.

The root of today's crisis around Ukraine is the actions of Ukraine itself, who for many years were sabotaging its obligations."

Nebenzya is presumably referring to the Minsk agreement.

[Jacob]

My guess is a full blown war and invasion, and an egg on the face of all those who claim that Russians don't have enough forces.

So take and hold, Iraq style? Or even take and hold Tibet style?

[mongers]

NB I change the title of the thread from "2022 crisis" to "2022 Invasion"

edit:
reports of amphibious landings at Odessa.

An Kharkiv is under attack.

[jimmy olsen]

I don't see this.  You don't just run a country because you say you run a country, and definitely not if that country is Ukraine.  If Russians capture Kiev, replace the government, and leave it at that, then the rest of unoccupied Ukraine will follow the orders from Lviv.

Yeah makes sense.

What are the likely scenarios at this point?

My guess is a full blown war and invasion, and an egg on the face of all those who claim that Russians don't have enough forces.

Ukraine has 44 million people. The Russians are rolling in with 200k. That's less than one Russian soldier for every 200 Ukrainian.

[DGuller]

My guess is a full blown war and invasion, and an egg on the face of all those who claim that Russians don't have enough forces.

So take and hold, Iraq style? Or even take and hold Tibet style?

I don't know about the hold part of it, but everything seems to point to the war plan involving all or most of Ukraine.  I don't even think that Russia would be content to peace out when on the verge of a crushing victory, like they were in Georgia.  I also don't see Russia leaving quickly after the war, as you don't draw up the kill lists unless you plan to have an iron grip on the country for a while.

[DGuller]

Ukraine has 44 million people. The Russians are rolling in with 200k. That's less than one Russian soldier for every 200 Ukrainian.

I don't think Russia plans to garrison Ukraine with combat units.

[Jacob]

Apparently Putin's speech was recorded three days ago.

Also, reporting from Russia "most Russians I've spoken to didn't believe it would be an invasion, just a recognition of the breakway republics."

[DGuller]

Ukraine has 44 million people. The Russians are rolling in with 200k. That's less than one Russian soldier for every 200 Ukrainian.

I don't think Russia plans to garrison Ukraine with combat units.

Also, is it really that much different from US rolling in with 200k troops into a country of 25 million?  Clearly in that case 200k troops were more than enough to win the war.

[Syt]

My guess is a full blown war and invasion, and an egg on the face of all those who claim that Russians don't have enough forces.

So take and hold, Iraq style? Or even take and hold Tibet style?

But Putin said he's not aiming at occupying Ukraine, it's just a Donbas operation and he wants to help Ukrainians to freely choose their government! Why would he lie?

[Syt]

Ukraine has 44 million people. The Russians are rolling in with 200k. That's less than one Russian soldier for every 200 Ukrainian.

I don't think Russia plans to garrison Ukraine with combat units.

Also, is it really that much different from US rolling in with 200k troops into a country of 25 million?  Clearly in that case 200k troops were more than enough to win the war.

But if he runs over the country, installs a puppet and then leaves, wouldn't that create a power vacuum with potential for the West to gain more influence?

[Jacob]

Also, is it really that much different from US rolling in with 200k troops into a country of 25 million?  Clearly in that case 200k troops were more than enough to win the war.

Yes, maybe he can win the war pretty easily (but I'm not sure yet). But what happens next, is my question.

[The Larch]

Russian troops land in Odessa and Mariupol, Ukraine officials say

Ukrainian officials say Russian troops have landed in Odessa while others are crossing the border into Kharkiv.

The Ukrainian interior ministry made the announcement on Telegram, adding that rocket attacks are targeting Ukrainian fighter jets at an airport outside Kyiv.

Ukraine's state emergency service says attacks have been launched against 10 Ukrainian regions, primarily in the east and south of the country.

At least seven "powerful" airstrikes on Vasilkovsky airport outside Kyiv, where Ukraine's military fighter bombers are kept, Kyiv command says

Guardian senior reporter Peter Beaumont tells us if the reports coming in from around Ukraine are accurate, this is far from a being a limited operation by Russia.

Instead it looks like military operations of different kinds are being launched in a broad crescent from Odessa in the south-west along the coast eastwards towards Mariupol, through to Kharkiv further north and finally Kyiv at the top of the crescent.

While a lot of reported attacks so far appear to have involved missile strikes, there are unconfirmed reports now via Ifax and elsewhere of troops landing in the south and crossing the border near Kharkiv too.