Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Jacob]

Ukraine Volunteer IT army video on their action against Rutube: https://twitter.com/Justin_Ling/status/1526560118002921476

[Tamas]

It seems Hungary wants 18 billion USD from the EU to stop vetoing the oil embargo. After historical overspending during the election campaign, Orban could definitely use that money, but I think it is more likely they were looking to make an offer that can't be accepted, with him being in Putin's pocket and all.

[Josephus]

I feel like the historical precedent for this level of involvement isn't great, right?

We'll know the end is near when he starts issuing orders to phantom formations.

Or thinking the V2 will save the save the day

[Zoupa]

It seems Hungary wants 18 billion USD from the EU to stop vetoing the oil embargo. After historical overspending during the election campaign, Orban could definitely use that money, but I think it is more likely they were looking to make an offer that can't be accepted, with him being in Putin's pocket and all.

   Wtf. Why not 180 billion while we're at it.

Can we swap Hungary for Ukraine please.

[Berkut]

I do wonder if perhaps NATO as an organization isn't a very wieldy tool for what we are trying to do with it now.

With there not being any real way to kick someone out, it kind of sucks that these actors can hold it hostage to its mission.

[Barrister]

I do wonder if perhaps NATO as an organization isn't a very wieldy tool for what we are trying to do with it now.

With there not being any real way to kick someone out, it kind of sucks that these actors can hold it hostage to its mission.

Do you mean to refer to NATO (with problematic Turkey), or the EU (with problematic Hungary).

NATO has to walk carefully because Turkey has been a useful member in the Ukraine war, even as they attempt to walk the line and not antagonize Russia to far.

EU and Hungary though... hard to see what good Hungary is for anyone in the EU though.

[Tamas]

I mean, I believe Hungary's unrealiability as a NATO ally is well known within the organisation and member states deal with Hungary accordingly. But, I imagine, NATO having access to Hungary's territory and infrastructure is still preferred to having no access or conceding that access to your future enemy. Same reasoning must go for Turkey with the added bonus of an actual military force there.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah. Plus in the context of this war, Turkey and Israel seem like th only countries both sides still like and trust. If Ukraine is still comfortable with that (and from what I've seen they are), I'm not sure it's for the West to push on their behalf.

In both cases it seems like if there's a meeting or back channel needed, those are the countries they use and that's a valuable thing for both sides to have.

[Legbiter]

There's always been drama within NATO itself though.    Today Poland and the Baltics are fairly pissed off at Germany and France, etc. Back in the day Iceland and Britain fought 3 cod wars with Iceland leveraging it's NATO membership to force the UK to back down. Hell, Turkey invading Cyprus in 1974 almost led to war with Greece. Both have major issues with each other. 

[OttoVonBismarck]

Yeah, Turkey is a genuinely useful NATO ally, and despite Erdogan's relatively warm relationship with Putin, he has allowed a lot of things to flow out of Turkey during this war that have killed a lot of Russians, that kind of shows that even he is firmly committed to NATO however much he likes playing footsie with Putin.

I take Erdogan's comments on Finnish and Swedish accession to be more of a staking out a position so he can get some sort of deal on some things he might want politically, I suspect a deal can and will be done, what exactly he gets I don't know.

Hungary, I find generally less useful in NATO and while I don't care too much about what the EU does, I don't think it is a good country to have in the EU either. There is a problem of countries falling to Russia, but once that has actually happened, I think that country continuing to be in Western organizations like the EU and NATO is a problem. Hungary has chosen to be a Russian client state and should largely be regarded as such. I'd be fine with seeing them expelled from both organizations.

While NATO has no formal expulsion mechanism, I don't really think it'd be hard for the United States to bully a country out if it really desired. The question is more does Hungary's presence cause enough problems to justify that disruption, and it probably doesn't. In the EU I think Hungary is a bigger problem, and I think the EU should probably move towards the idea that undemocratic states that develop inappropriate ties with enemies of Europe have no place in the union. Given all the bureaucracy and treaty limitations of the Union, I don't think that will be easy to implement, but that does not mean it is not worth pursuing.

[Jacob]

IMO Turkey is a legitimate and useful member of NATO. They have definite interests in countering Russian excesses, they control the Bosphorus Straits, and they are pretty usefully located as well. So yeah, while they may have different priorities on some issues I think it makes sense for them to be in NATO. And while I'm not a fan of Erdogan at all, and while I'm sympathetic to the Kurds, Turkey may have something resembling a point.

Hungary on the other hand... I guess there's the argument that it's better to keep your opponents close. But it seems pretty clear that Hungary is acting as an antagonist, trying to harm the EU from within. I wonder how far it'll have to go before decisive action is/ can be taken against Hungary... and whether it's even possible.

[Maladict]

I do wonder if perhaps NATO as an organization isn't a very wieldy tool for what we are trying to do with it now.

With there not being any real way to kick someone out, it kind of sucks that these actors can hold it hostage to its mission.

Do you mean to refer to NATO (with problematic Turkey), or the EU (with problematic Hungary).

NATO has to walk carefully because Turkey has been a useful member in the Ukraine war, even as they attempt to walk the line and not antagonize Russia to far.

EU and Hungary though... hard to see what good Hungary is for anyone in the EU though.

For two organizations born out of WW2, NATO and the EU sure failed to safeguard against member states spiraling into dictatorships.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah, Turkey is a genuinely useful NATO ally, and despite Erdogan's relatively warm relationship with Putin, he has allowed a lot of things to flow out of Turkey during this war that have killed a lot of Russians, that kind of shows that even he is firmly committed to NATO however much he likes playing footsie with Putin.

I take Erdogan's comments on Finnish and Swedish accession to be more of a staking out a position so he can get some sort of deal on some things he might want politically, I suspect a deal can and will be done, what exactly he gets I don't know.

Agreed. My read on Erdogan's comments is that they have left enough wiggle room for him to change position - from what I've read it's more "I won't support" than "I will block permanently". I think it's a shakedown because he's got a veto position, so he has leverage.

It seems to me like he wants Sweden (not sure about Finland) to lift its restrictions on arms sales to Turkey and something from both on the PKK. It's not particularly helpful from Turkey - but it's not entirely unreasonable either.

I agree on Hungary being more of a problem and, bluntly, they're not shipping Bayraktars to Ukraine or closing the Straits to Russian reinforcements as the Black Sea Fleet is diminished. I just hope that Hungary aren't cced or invited to any of the actual important meetings between NATO allies because I don't trust that goverment and I wouldn't be surprised if they're a bit of a sieve.

Edit: Agree on Hungary in the EU where it can cause more damage because it can really cause problems trying to agree economic sanctions. I'm not sure on the solution.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I do wonder if perhaps NATO as an organization isn't a very wieldy tool for what we are trying to do with it now.

With there not being any real way to kick someone out, it kind of sucks that these actors can hold it hostage to its mission.

Do you mean to refer to NATO (with problematic Turkey), or the EU (with problematic Hungary).

NATO has to walk carefully because Turkey has been a useful member in the Ukraine war, even as they attempt to walk the line and not antagonize Russia to far.

EU and Hungary though... hard to see what good Hungary is for anyone in the EU though.

For two organizations born out of WW2, NATO and the EU sure failed to safeguard against member states spiraling into dictatorships.

Part of the problem is dictatorships were traditionally thought of as something a small cabal of evil men (usually military leaders) promulgated and forced on a people. The reality is most dictatorships, and certainly many of the modern ones (Hungary, Russia, Turkey), are actually reflecting widespread domestic support for authoritarianism, because the dictators represent a majority that doesn't want to share any power with domestic enemies/opposition, and if that means just not having a liberal/free society--they are fine with it. That's hard to counter in our allies because it would literally mean having to interfere in their domestic politics.

[Barrister]

For two organizations born out of WW2, NATO and the EU sure failed to safeguard against member states spiraling into dictatorships.

For NATO at least it was never all about keeping dictatorships out.  Portugal and Turkey were all dictatorships when they entered, and Greece went through a period of dictatorship.  You just had to be the right kind of dictatorship.