Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Jacob]

I have to say, the way the US is pouring arms into Ukraine so Ukrainians can defend themselves is spectacular. Well done America

[Barrister]

I wonder what the conditions to trigger a general Russian mobilization are... and what the repercussions would be.

Conditions are whatever Putin says they are, of course.

Plenty of repercussions.  Bound to be quite unpopular (Putin promised only regular troops would be sent).  It's an admission Russia is losing the war (of course they'll say they're losing to NATO).  Would be a huge economic hit - all those conscripts suddenly aren't working their regular jobs.

Big question is whether modern-day Russia could support a hundred thousand more troops - logistics have not been their strong suit.

Those troops wouldn't make it to the battlefield for many months as well, while Ukraine and the west will not be sitting idly by.

But with all that being said, if Russia suddenly puts another 100,000 soldiers into Ukraine that would obviously make a big difference.  One of Russia's many problems is that with Ukraine having done a general mobilization the number of troops are very roughly equal.  And with Ukraine being on the defence, with shorter supply lines, knowing the terrain, and the morale that comes from defending your homeland, gives Ukraine the edge.  But if Russia is now on a 2:1 advantage, that could tip things quite a bit.

[Admiral Yi]

I think the question is more about the reaction of the general population to a sudden draft of young men.

[Barrister]

Also - apparently Russia is going to forcibly conscript any suitably-aged males from Kherson and portions of Ukraine they do control into the Russian army.

[Berkut]

Also - apparently Russia is going to forcibly conscript any suitably-aged males from Kherson and portions of Ukraine they do control into the Russian army.

That worked well for the actual Nazis!

[Barrister]

Also - apparently Russia is going to forcibly conscript any suitably-aged males from Kherson and portions of Ukraine they do control into the Russian army.

That worked well for the actual Nazis!

Well that's the playbook they're pretty much running with...

[Barrister]

Germany announces it will stop buying Russian oil...

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-will-end-oil-imports-russia-by-year-end-says-minister-2022-04-20/

by the end of the year.

Ending Russian gas imports will follow at some unspecified point in the future.

:golfclap:

Look - I understand the reliance on Russian gas for many German industries.  But ending oil imports is much, much easier from what I understand.

[Threviel]

Once again, Ukraine has about 40ish million inhabitants. In a years long war they will be able to support an army of millions.

They have mobilized with what equipment they have and are probably mobilizing further, and given more equipment they will be able to match anything the Russians can mobilize.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

But if Russia is now on a 2:1 advantage, that could tip things quite a bit.

It may be pretty insufficient if every siege is going to be like Mariopol. And it is not unlikely that every siege will be like Mariopol.
Russia is throwing away an entire generation of men they basically can't afford to lose, demographically.

[alfred russel]

I wonder what the conditions to trigger a general Russian mobilization are... and what the repercussions would be.

If the nationalists want it, it is going to be very difficult for Putin to not deliver, not have success, and then survive as leader. He won't have a powerbase left. If you are going to push a radical policy that only a minority of the population wants, you can survive as an antidemocratic dictator but not if you alienate that minority in the process.

[Josephus]

By the end of the year?

[Josquius]

And with Ukraine being on the defence, with shorter supply lines, knowing the terrain, and the morale that comes from defending your homeland, gives Ukraine the edge.  But if Russia is now on a 2:1 advantage, that could tip things quite a bit.

Iirc isn't there a rule where being the defender gives you a 3x advantage?

[Barrister]

If the nationalists want it, it is going to be very difficult for Putin to not deliver, not have success, and then survive as leader. He won't have a powerbase left. If you are going to push a radical policy that only a minority of the population wants, you can survive as an antidemocratic dictator but not if you alienate that minority in the process.

Putin's power base is the security services.  Nothing more, nothing less.

[alfred russel]

And with Ukraine being on the defence, with shorter supply lines, knowing the terrain, and the morale that comes from defending your homeland, gives Ukraine the edge.  But if Russia is now on a 2:1 advantage, that could tip things quite a bit.

Iirc isn't there a rule where being the defender gives you a 3x advantage?

To quote Morgan Freeman's character in what should probably be shown as a military training film at war colleges, Robin Hood Prince of Thieves, "One man defending his home is worth 10 hired soldiers."

[PDH]

3:1 advantage in numbers is the "classic" amount.  That's why in AH's 3R a 2:1 could still end up with the total annihilation of the attacker.  Of course, defending in cities gives an advantage if you are playing smaller scale games.  Those CRT shifts are important.