Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[HVC]

Is he just not paid enough by Putin to be effective, or is he just really bad at international relations?

[PJL]

I do like the fact that Germany have continued the tradition of naming their tank types after feline species, despite this being started by the Nazis.

[Sheilbh]

So I guess we're going to be treated to a period of Scholz saying "no", getting everyone (decent) mad at him until finally he gives in, provides additional valuable contributions, but gets stuck with the "what a jerk, why are the Germans obstructing" reputation.

Yes - as has happened at every stage of the conflict and as Ukraine's foreign minister said. And the climb-down may already be starting - the new Defence Minister has said there's no tie between the US providing tanks and Germany allowing Leopards to be provided. Contrary to the Chancellor's spokesman last week.

I think it is actually a little more serious for Germany. For all of the talk of Germany not wanting to go alone - I saw a thing from Ulrich Speck who's a (hawkish) German think tanker who commented that right now Scholz's relations with central and Eastern European countries are at an all time low, they're "very cool" with Scandinavia and very bad with France (on multiple fronts). Even very traditional German friends like the Dutch are a bit annoyed - they've said they're willing to fund replacement tanks for EU countries that want to send Leopards (as the Dutch only have 18). Compared with recent years they're pretty good with the UK and US (although a big disagreement on China) - but across Europe probably worse than they've been at any point since the Cold War ended.

I've seen a number of pieces and comments from German think-tank-y people on the international circuit visiting, say, Warsaw or the Baltics and saying it is not cutting through in Germany how much damage their reputation is taking as a reliable ally on fundamental national security issues of allies. It's not just the frustration many Germans feel at Scholz but a real fear and concern about Germany's reliability (especially given the last 25 years of policy towards Russia and current policy towards China).

I think, incidentally, that it probably helps that Warsaw addressed their rule of law issues to the Commission's satisfaction so are not seen by most other governments as an Orban-ish pariah. They are a good European who did their homework and who are now leading in defending European security. Eighteen months/two years ago Warsaw was very isolated - they're now very successfully building alliances across Europe.

But I can't help but wonder what Russian propeganda will make of German tanks rolling against their troops.

That they're fighting Nazis and the entire Western alliance? So the same line as they've had for the last year?

[Legbiter]

That they're fighting Nazis and the entire Western alliance? So the same line as they've had for the last year?

Gay Satanist Nazis.

[Sheilbh]

Gay Satanist Nazis.

So, Ernst Rohm - not sure it makes a huge difference

[The Brain]

Ah, euf ceurse. A Röhm.

[HVC]

That they're fighting Nazis and the entire Western alliance? So the same line as they've had for the last year?

Gay Satanist Nazis.

Is hugo boss donating uniforms? Can't be evil without being snazzy

[The Larch]

Poland seems to be willing to tell Germany to eff off regarding tanks. Even more pressure on Germany to deliver, I guess.

Poland could send Leopard tanks to Ukraine without German approval
Polish prime minister says key issue is to get military aid to Ukraine urgently

The Polish prime minister has said his country would be willing to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine without securing Germany's approval if Berlin does not agree to their re-export at Friday's meeting of western defence ministers at Ramstein airbase.

Mateusz Morawiecki said in a radio interview on Thursday that "consent was of secondary importance" when it came to German-made tanks, because the key issue was to get military aid to Ukraine urgently.

"We will either obtain this consent quickly, or we will do it ourselves," Morawiecki added, heaping further pressure on Berlin to allow German made Leopard 2s to be sent to Ukraine in preparation for a spring offensive.

Poland, along with Finland, has said it wants to give 14 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, which would normally require German approval, but it is one of a number of countries trying to force the pace at a time when Berlin is still negotiating.

Arvydas Anusauskas, Lithuania's defence minister, said others could follow suit at the Ramstein meeting on Friday. "Some of the countries will definitely send Leopard tanks to Ukraine, that is for sure," he said.

Lloyd Austin, the US defence secretary, met his newly appointed German counterpart, Boris Pistorius, in Berlin on Thursday, but neither mentioned the Leopard standoff in brief commentsbefore their meeting.

Previously, German officials signalled Berlin was willing to break the logjam if the US would also agree to send over some of its own Abrams tanks to Ukraine. But the US said on Wednesday it did not want to do that, because the Abrams, which has a jet turbine engine, is fuel inefficient and so requires complex logistics support.

Colin Kahl, the US undersecretary of defence for policy, said: "The Abrams tank is a very complicated piece of equipment. It's expensive, it's hard to train on, it has a jet engine – I think it's about three gallons to the mile with jet fuel. It is not the easiest system to maintain."

Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said for the second time in two days there was little time to be wasted wrestling with decisions. Speaking by video link at a special event at the Davos gathering of the global elite, he said: "This is not a cinema where you wait for the film to start."

Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev, however, warned that if Russia was to be defeated in a conventional war in Ukraine, it could lead to nuclear war. "The defeat of a nuclear power in a conventional war may trigger a nuclear war," he wrote, adding: "Nuclear powers have never lost major conflicts on which their fate depends."

Few believe such rhetoric should be taken at face value, Russian nuclear messaging is usually designed to intimidate or provoke anxiety in the west just as leaders weigh up how much military aid to provide to Ukraine this week. But there was little sign of hesitation among many western nations, putting the focus squarely on Germany.

The US is expected to announce another $2.5bn in military aid including more Bradley fighting vehicles in addition to the 50 it announced earlier this month as part of a separate $3bn aid package, and nearly 100 mobile Stryker eight-wheeled armoured vehicles.

Britain, which has already said it will supply 14 of its own Challenger 2 tanks, said it would provide an extra 600 Brimstone anti-tank missiles, at a pre-meeting of nine countries in Estonia. "We're in it for the long haul," said Ben Wallace, the UK defence secretary.

The grouping, which includes Poland and the Baltic states as well as Britain, released a joint pledge declaring: "We commit to collectively pursuing delivery of an unprecedented set of donations including main battle tanks, heavy artillery, air defence, ammunition, and infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine's defence."

Estonia announced a military aid package worth €113m and said the total value of its support was more than 1% of its GDP in the period since the war began. Sweden said it would donate 50 Type 90 infantry fighting vehicles and Archer artillery. Denmark announced it will donate 19 French-made Caesar howitzers.

France, too, hinted it might consider sending its Leclerc tanks to Ukraine as part of an arrangement with Germany. "The subject is complicated and hasn't been settled yet in Paris. But we are thinking about it," a French official told Politico. It could be discussed at a joint Franco-German cabinet on Sunday, they suggested.

[HVC]

 As an aside to the main issue of Germany, why'd the US make such a complicated tank?

[Admiral Yi]

As an aside to the main issue of Germany, why'd the US make such a complicated tank?

To kill the enemy and not die.

[HVC]

As an aside to the main issue of Germany, why'd the US make such a complicated tank?

To kill the enemy and not die.

The "ineffecient" engine would seem to work against that goal, wouldn't it? 

[Legbiter]

Poland seems to be willing to tell Germany to eff off regarding tanks. Even more pressure on Germany to deliver, I guess.

Not just the Poles at this point in time I suspect. If the Germans refuse to give permission to send Leopards, they'll likely be ignored and the tanks sent anyway to Ukraine with no future German tank purchases to replace the ones sent. The South Koreans and the Americans will take over the German market share.

[Admiral Yi]

The "ineffecient" engine would seem to work against that goal, wouldn't it? 

The gas turbine generates speed.

[HVC]

The "ineffecient" engine would seem to work against that goal, wouldn't it? 

The gas turbine generates speed.

Until it runs out of jet fuel  on the field . But I guess americas military-industrial complex knows more then I do

[The Brain]

I knew the Abrams had a gas turbine, but not that it had a jet engine. The future is now.