Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Josquius]

I think deniable support would be better. Ukrainian guerilla groups based safely in Poland and elsewhere between actions in Ukraine. But flying sorties is not something that could be denied as having official approval, I don't think.

Can someone lend Ukrainians an aircraft carrier instead?

As I raised a few pages back how about drones?

Ukraine does have them. They can even be flown from western Ukraine. It can't be detected if the pilot is actually in Poland.

[Tamas]

I see this Poland thing was said by the Ukrainian military. I really fucking hope this is them misunderstanding/boasting about something that has not been promised.

This is another thing - I think Ukraine has very cleverly bounced a few items where they say "x is going to happen" based on calls with countries, then it doesn't immediately which produces pressure and it does happen. We should be supporting them but a little circumspect - as they're very good at the information war.

Aren't the plane numbers a bit suspect, to begin with?

[Admiral Yi]

The numbers look reasonable to me for what they would have left over from Warsaw Pact days.

I'm wondering about serviceability for planes that have presumably been mothballed for that long.  Or are they operational?

I'm also concerned by the "pcs," like they're ordering sushi.

[Tamas]

The numbers look reasonable to me for what they would have left over from Warsaw Pact days.

I'm wondering about serviceability for planes that have presumably been mothballed for that long.  Or are they operational?

I'm also concerned by the "pcs," like they're ordering sushi.

I did a quick digging. They are listing the entire Mig-29 and Su-25 stockpile of Bulgaria, and I am pretty sure Bulgaria would not hand over their airforce like that, that's almost treasonous when you might need it yourself.

They list more Mig-29s for Poland than what they officially have in total.

They also list 12 for Slovakia while they have 11 listed, and I think I know why. Wikipedia has a note saying "1 is used in conversion training" which if your English isn't very good you may understand as 12 total.

[Sheilbh]

My bad - apologies. Should have waited for more people on the story before sharing 

[Admiral Yi]

I did a quick digging. They are listing the entire Mig-29 and Su-25 stockpile of Bulgaria, and I am pretty sure Bulgaria would not hand over their airforce like that, that's almost treasonous when you might need it yourself.

They list more Mig-29s for Poland than what they officially have in total.

They also list 12 for Slovakia while they have 11 listed, and I think I know why. Wikipedia has a note saying "1 is used in conversion training" which if your English isn't very good you may understand as 12 total.

But surely they got their hands on some F-16s since joining NATO?

[Tamas]

I did a quick digging. They are listing the entire Mig-29 and Su-25 stockpile of Bulgaria, and I am pretty sure Bulgaria would not hand over their airforce like that, that's almost treasonous when you might need it yourself.

They list more Mig-29s for Poland than what they officially have in total.

They also list 12 for Slovakia while they have 11 listed, and I think I know why. Wikipedia has a note saying "1 is used in conversion training" which if your English isn't very good you may understand as 12 total.

But surely they got their hands on some F-16s since joining NATO?

Bulgaria has 16 F-16s on order but not in stock so again all fighting aircraft of theirs would be given to Ukraine according to Ukraine.

Slovakia has 11 F-16s on order 2 used in training so they also would be giving away their entire combat air force according to Ukraine.

Poland does have like 33 F-16s so their number is the only realistic one.

[Sheilbh]

Re. Everyone needing to calm down - General Sir Richard Barrons, ex-head of Joint Forces Command saying we should have no-fly zone: "It does mean war with Russia..." :
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1498437262727647237?s=20&t=AUSmIKvh_V0Y63OUYLWzmg

Wildly too flippant. Not wildly thrilled that the discourse has taken a turn to: "yeah - war with Russia, why not? YOLO" from relatively senior/respected figures

[HVC]

Convoy heading towards kyiv now 40 miles long according to CNN.

[Valmy]

Convoy heading towards kyiv now 40 miles long according to CNN.

Convoy of what?

[HVC]

Troops and tanks.

[The Brain]

Convoy heading towards kyiv now 40 miles long according to CNN.

Convoy of what?

Demoralized Russian conscripts.

[HVC]

Convoy heading towards kyiv now 40 miles long according to CNN.

Convoy of what?

Demoralized Russian conscripts.

That too. But Russia has a history of using meat grinders to win wars.

[The Brain]

Convoy heading towards kyiv now 40 miles long according to CNN.

Convoy of what?

Demoralized Russian conscripts.

That too. But Russia has a history of using meat grinders to win wars.

And lose them.

[Jacob]

Re. Everyone needing to calm down - General Sir Richard Barrons, ex-head of Joint Forces Command saying we should have no-fly zone: "It does mean war with Russia..." :
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1498437262727647237?s=20&t=AUSmIKvh_V0Y63OUYLWzmg

Wildly too flippant. Not wildly thrilled that the discourse has taken a turn to: "yeah - war with Russia, why not? YOLO" from relatively senior/respected figures

I think it's coming.

Russia is on record warning Europe against arming the Ukrainian military and saying support will be met with harsh consequences. They're also saying this is the end of Europe as a pacifistic project to unite Europe (they're right about that too, thanks to Putin).

I think there's a solid chance that if Russia does not succeed in conquering Ukraine, pacifying the population, and keeping the West from supporting Ukrainian resistance that they will escalate with Europe and the US. And I don't think they'll succeed, and I don't think Europe - nor the US - is going to abandon Ukraine at this point.