Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Barrister]

Mass grave discovered in recently liberated Izyum.  More than 400 bodies, most with their hands tied.

[crazy canuck]

Horrific 

[Valmy]

Mass grave discovered in recently liberated Izyum.  More than 400 bodies, most with their hands tied.

That World War II type shit. Unbelievable.

[Barrister]

Mass grave discovered in recently liberated Izyum.  More than 400 bodies, most with their hands tied.

That World War II type shit. Unbelievable.

After everything we've seen, it is absolutely believable.

[PDH]

I have heard a lot of Western think-tank types rumble in the past week or so about how Russia will never give up as they are Russia and they can't admit defeat.  Well, with the continuous and continuing war crimes against the Ukrainian people, Ukraine won't give up either - this is a moral fight for survival for the Ukraine and its people.

The Russians have created (at least the start) of a more unified Ukrainian state, they have given a real foe around which to coalesce, and the Russian have shown they are there solely to sow destruction and chaos.  I think once the sanctions bite even more (and yesterday's supposed call by the Russian Government for across the board 10% budget cuts shows they are likely already hurting), the leaders in Russia will be in even more trouble.

[Jacob]

Ruscia delenda est

[Josquius]

Mass grave discovered in recently liberated Izyum.  More than 400 bodies, most with their hands tied.

That World War II type shit. Unbelievable.

After everything we've seen, it is absolutely believable.

Yep. Unbelievable would be if the reports from civilians in the area that the Russians were no trouble turned out to be universal.

[Barrister]

Mass grave discovered in recently liberated Izyum.  More than 400 bodies, most with their hands tied.

That World War II type shit. Unbelievable.

After everything we've seen, it is absolutely believable.

Yep. Unbelievable would be if the reports from civilians in the area that the Russians were no trouble turned out to be universal.

It seems to be that there were few plans or directions on how to deal with local populace, so I have no trouble believing it varied depending on the whim of the local commanders.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I mean Russia has a long history of fighting to bitter victories and also of giving up when the time is right, which is true of most countries with a long history. Things like WWI and Afghanistan would put to the lie the claim that Russia has some secret "unbreakable will" attribute hardcoded into the national DNA.

I really don't know what will happen. When I think about very high level military characteristics my mind thinks to:

1. Manpower
2. Technology
3. Professionalism
4. Economic / Natural resources

I feel that the way the last 7 months have gone you can make credible arguments that Ukraine is now operating at an advantage versus Russia at least on #2s through #4.

Tech wise, Ukraine is largely replacing Warsaw Pact equipment with advanced Western weaponry, while Russia's best equipment has suffered a huge churn rate and is being replaced by supplies from places like North Korea now--partly because the sanctions that many say "aren't working" make it difficult for Russia to sustain the sort of materiel build out it needs.

Professionalism wise, Ukraine has largely already tangoed with the "well trained" parts of the Russian Army, and it seemed fairly poorly trained. The additions of non-ethnic Russians press ganged into fighting appear to have lowered the level of training and professionalism from that point versus Ukraine is now fielding brigades of Western trained troops who have been training for months.

In terms of economic and natural resources, as long as the United States and EU backs Ukraine it will not be at a disadvantage here--I suspect Putin believes this to be the Achilles heel and is heavily betting the West gives up over the Winter.

The final point, manpower, would be assumed to be in Russia's favor with 4x the population. And it would be, were Putin able to tap into it, but unless he is willing to recruit form the broad ethnic Russian population, nationwide, he is likely operating from a smaller effective manpower base than Ukraine is, which can tap into a large portion of its entire adult male population.

[Sheilbh]

Mass grave discovered in recently liberated Izyum.  More than 400 bodies, most with their hands tied.

I fear there'll be Buchas everywhere Ukraine liberates

[The Minsky Moment]

After everything we've seen, it is absolutely believable.

yes.
But it is unbelievable that it is believable.

[Josquius]

I mean Russia has a long history of fighting to bitter victories and also of giving up when the time is right, which is true of most countries with a long history. Things like WWI and Afghanistan would put to the lie the claim that Russia has some secret "unbreakable will" attribute hardcoded into the national DNA.

To be fair in Afghanistan didn't the Soviets "win" on paper? They got an agreement signed and went home in triumph leaving the afghan government behind to collapse.

Ww1 however is a scenario which is most likely. Albeit on a lesser scale. A replacement of leadership where the new leaders can blame the old and save face while losing.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I mean they won on paper in Afghanistan the same way we did, or similar to Vietnam.

[OttoVonBismarck]

The fact both Xi and Modi have publicly distanced from Putin this week has to have Vlad fuming.

[DGuller]

Russia also admitted defeat in the first Chechen war, and there was no debate about what the outcome was.  It did regroup only three years later for a more successful second war, but the first one they lost even on paper.