Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Jacob]

The Kosovo cosplay hypothesis is interesting. It's also a scenario where Russia doesn't need to occupy Ukraine proper and risk significant casualties.

But it's also a scenario where a handful of anti-aircraft units can make Russia look very bad, indeed.  Russian SEAD is not very good, from all reports.

How does Ukraine stack up in that regard?

EDIT: ... and I guess for weapon manufacturers and Western strategic planners this could be a good opportunity to get answers to a bunch of unknowns about how different technologies stack up against each other in practice rather than in theory.

[jimmy olsen]

So, theory of the day- this isn't about Ukraine. Anything they get out of scaring Ukraine is a bonus. Anschluss with Belarus was always the main goal.

They could have just done it. No one would have cared.

[grumbler]

How does Ukraine stack up in that regard?

EDIT: ... and I guess for weapon manufacturers and Western strategic planners this could be a good opportunity to get answers to a bunch of unknowns about how different technologies stack up against each other in practice rather than in theory.

Prior to their break with Russia, Ukraine acquired sufficient equipment and doctrine to pose a moderate threat to Russian aircraft.  How much that might have been improved in the meantime is probably a state secret. 

Mobile systems could be "sold" after the fighting starts.  As you note, there would be incentives to give the Ukrainians deals just to get hardware into action to boost sales elsewhere.

[mongers]

IIRC the Russian forces deployed against Ukraine are still less than the strength of the Soviet Group of Forces in East German during the cold war.

It's just that Western European countries disarmed themselves even faster than the former soviet forces of Russia collapsed or were neglected.

Time I think for European NATO members to agree on an immediate doubling of expenditures on ground forces.

[Admiral Yi]

Time I think for European NATO members to agree on an immediate doubling of expenditures on ground forces.

Is that before or after they meet the 2% of GDP target they've been promising for the last umpteen years? 

Never going to happen.

[grumbler]

IIRC the Russian forces deployed against Ukraine are still less than the strength of the Soviet Group of Forces in East German during the cold war.

It's just that Western European countries disarmed themselves even faster than the former soviet forces of Russia collapsed or were neglected.

Time I think for European NATO members to agree on an immediate doubling of expenditures on ground forces.

Not just ground forces.  The German Navy just came out of a period where it has zero operational submarines and one operational destroyer.  But, given that equipment availability rates in the German army are below 50% (the target is 80%), more needs to be spent on the ground forces, for sure.

[Sheilbh]

IIRC the Russian forces deployed against Ukraine are still less than the strength of the Soviet Group of Forces in East German during the cold war.

It's just that Western European countries disarmed themselves even faster than the former soviet forces of Russia collapsed or were neglected.

Time I think for European NATO members to agree on an immediate doubling of expenditures on ground forces.

Yeah - although I think part of that is from my understanding there has been a huge transformation of the Russian military from the very demoralised, often not-actually-paid conscript army of the nineties into something that resembles a professional force. There is also the non-state military with Russia which I imagine will have some role and have been useful in reforming their army - it's hard to imagine that Wagner Group won't play a role in Ukraine and they're also pushing French (and other European forces) quite strongly in the Sahel.

It may not be at the Soviet level, but that would be extraordinary given that the USSR was a global superpower albeit a decadent one, Russia isn't. Economically it's the equivalent of Benelux, it's just a country that never stopped believing in the importance of force as a necessary tool to defend and advance their power. As you say I think that Western Europe forgot that quite quickly (or chose to ignore it/pretend the world had changed utterly).

And even the countries that didn't fully do that like France and the UK basically re-imagined the role they'd be playing in the world and the conflicts they might face. So the UK's standard army is very weak (especially with things like tanks or any armour) - but we've got shedloads of special forces lads who should be able to make a difference in a small war but aren't there as a deterrent or defence in Europe. The thinking started shifting with John Bew's defence review, but I think that needs to accelerate massively now and the budget especially for the army needs to increase. I think that probably applies regardless of what happens now.

A point and photo doing the rounds on Twitter - it's hard not to feel incredibly sorry for the people of Donetsk, seeing images like this of temporary accommodation for them in Russia. In 2012 they hosted the Europa Cup final - you know, it was a normal Eastern European city. And since then they've just been pawns - war, now "refugee" status etc

[Sheilbh]

Is that before or after they meet the 2% of GDP target they've been promising for the last umpteen years? 

Never going to happen.

It's creeping up - and France, the UK and Norway are, I think, over 2% (as is Greece for other obvious but different reasons ). Poland, Romania and the Baltics are all around about there. It's almost telling us something that (with the exception of France, Greece and the UK), the biggest indicator of how much you spend on defence seems to be proximity to Russia

[Admiral Yi]

It's almost telling us something that (with the exception of France, Greece and the UK), the biggest indicator of how much you spend on defence seems to be proximity to Russia

I've made this point before.

[Jacob]

For Greece it's proximity to Turkey that's the driver, I reckon.

[Berkut]

If there was ever someone who could make the world a better place by dropping dead, it would have to be Putin.

Xi is as bad, but I suspect if he dropped dead, its very possible nothing would really change in China, or if it did, it would be very slow.

[grumbler]

If there was ever someone who could make the world a better place by dropping dead, it would have to be Putin.

Xi is as bad, but I suspect if he dropped dead, its very possible nothing would really change in China, or if it did, it would be very slow.

I think that Putin is far more Russian than Xi Chinese.

[Zanza]

There might be a Blinken-Lawrow meeting followed by a Biden-Putin meeting - unless Russia invades Ukraine (further). Let's see. Maybe there is still room for Russia to back down somehow. I guess continuing to talk has little downside, so it's worth trying.

[The Brain]

IIRC the Russian forces deployed against Ukraine are still less than the strength of the Soviet Group of Forces in East German during the cold war.

It's just that Western European countries disarmed themselves even faster than the former soviet forces of Russia collapsed or were neglected.

Time I think for European NATO members to agree on an immediate doubling of expenditures on ground forces.

Not just ground forces.  The German Navy just came out of a period where it has zero operational submarines and one operational destroyer. 

Given the allegiance of its chief it was probably for the best.

[Tamas]

IIRC the Russian forces deployed against Ukraine are still less than the strength of the Soviet Group of Forces in East German during the cold war.

It's just that Western European countries disarmed themselves even faster than the former soviet forces of Russia collapsed or were neglected.

Time I think for European NATO members to agree on an immediate doubling of expenditures on ground forces.

Not just ground forces.  The German Navy just came out of a period where it has zero operational submarines and one operational destroyer. 

Given the allegiance of its chief it was probably for the best.