Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[FunkMonk]

I did not realize this but there are NATO exercises going on right now:

https://shape.nato.int/nato-exercises

Currently one is happening in Norway and another is scheduled with Georgia later in March.

Another in June in Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia is supposed to be the largest ground-based Integrated Air and Missile Defence (IAMD) exercise in the world. 

[Legbiter]

Yeah very easy to spiral into a broader war.

*edit* Putin might even prefer it, gives him an excuse for mobilization.

[jimmy olsen]

I don't think conventional clashes are out of the question.

That supposed "FBS" source has leaked more and I think it's worth taking a look. A lot of what was predicted in the first leak came true, most importantly the farcical WMD accusations.

The most concerning thing for me here is that there is supposedly a faction that wants to escalate with conventional missile strikes on Poland/Baltics. Also, that Putin has a very Hitlerian management style where power is completely decentralized below him, everyone is competing, and he rarely says no to proposals, preferring to let people succeed or fail even if he's already allowed someone to go forward with a directly contradictory proposal. Those two things don't go well together.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1501763583117389827
From the 2nd letter

Strongest psychological resistance of personal responsibility for difficult decisions. It is a result of the 1) above, but in turn, this also leads to a mechanism for denying his own guilt/responsibility even to himself. From this, considering 3) above, we can say the following with near absolute certainty: Putin is psychologically incapable of refusing with justification, an offer from his closest circle. But this also leads to the conclusion that he does not guarantee anything to anyone by saying "yes", because to guarantee is to take responsibility. With high probability I assert that in case of an offer from his closest circle, he will agree with every offer, delegating the control/responsibility to the person making the offer. Psychologically, he will not have any contradictions with "agreement" to mutually exclusive proposals - "you yourself are to blame if you failed."

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1501841660505837572

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1502024319769088003
From the 4th letter

Actual threats of conventional rocket strikes against Europe [not bluffs] in the event of further sanctions can no longer be dismissed. Supporters of such an approach, who exist among those with influence on the decision, muse that in a sordid case we will simply be crushed by waiting until an internal implosion and collapse from inside (in Russia).

In addition to the rockets, we have the capability to conduct a massive cyberwar – the internet can be shut down (by Russia inside Russia). Such a possibility exists and it'd be difficult (for the West) to respond symmetrically (since Russia won't have internet anyway).

And the external war should reduce the internal tension and redirect the aggression outward. However "should" – doesn't mean it'll be so.

[Legbiter]

Reads like Q-tier/Russiagate babble Tim.  Or that covid hysteric you quoted once.

[Josephus]

Ukrainians are claiming to have killed a third Russian general Andrey Kolesnikov.  

Russians haven't lost this many generals since the great purge

[Legbiter]

Russians haven't lost this many generals since the great purge

Yeah this is a very Russian war. Grinding casualties, starving frontline troops and massive incompetence followed by a win so costly as to render it meaningless.

[viper37]

Trump is most welcome at any Republican event.

[viper37]

I've seen no evidence he was/is anti-regime, if we're talking the Montreal pianist. He spoke negatively about the war. But even some of the oligarchs have done that.

If we're going solely off the three tweet quotes you provided, that's very much the messaging of a person who unequivocally opposes the war ("feel guilt forever" or whatever it was) and then tried to walk it back to protect his family, like Squeeze said.  He softens the language but he never retracts it.

But, like I mentioned earlier, adjudicating each and every case of good and bad Russian would be a real bitch.

I mean there's virtually no serious evidence the Russians go after random musicians families for saying mean things about Putin. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pussy_Riot#Legal_problems

[OttoVonBismarck]

I've seen no evidence he was/is anti-regime, if we're talking the Montreal pianist. He spoke negatively about the war. But even some of the oligarchs have done that.

If we're going solely off the three tweet quotes you provided, that's very much the messaging of a person who unequivocally opposes the war ("feel guilt forever" or whatever it was) and then tried to walk it back to protect his family, like Squeeze said.  He softens the language but he never retracts it.

But, like I mentioned earlier, adjudicating each and every case of good and bad Russian would be a real bitch.

I mean there's virtually no serious evidence the Russians go after random musicians families for saying mean things about Putin.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pussy_Riot#Legal_problems

Which is an example of Russia going after the dissidents directly, not their families? Maybe your illiteracy is catching up to you here.

[viper37]

One of the girl's husband was poisoned and had to be treated in Germany, after he went to the trial of another member.

[OttoVonBismarck]

One of the girl's husband was poisoned and had to be treated in Germany, after he went to the trial of another member.

You mean Pyotr Verzilov who himself was considered a member of the group, and after he divorced the Pussy Riot member he was involved in another dissident group on his own? Yeah that isn't quite the same as someone's politically uninvolved husband being poisoned out of vindictiveness. My point stands--at least at present I have seen no evidence Russia is acting like Tehran or North Korea where family members of dissidents are being targeted as retribution. I certainly would not be shocked if that became something that does occur, but I have not seen it happen and the example of a dissident being poisoned themselves is obviously not the same thing.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I don't honestly really understand the line of discussion to begin with--resisting a tyrannical leader involves sacrifices, this has been true everywhere. The Ukrainians resisting Putin know and understand this--Russians are not significantly willing to resist Putin, and that means they are little more than manpower and economic resources of the Putin regime. There is no universal free pass just because you don't live in a democracy.

[Jacob]

On the "risk of broader war" topic, my thinking is:

If Western actions are effective (sanctions, arming Ukraine, Russia not winning) then there is a risk that Putin or someone within his clique will choose escalation as a reaction to losing. While we should put some thought into not needlessly trigger an escalatory response from Russia, our focus should be on effectively supporting Ukraine to win within the limits we've set ourselves; and that will always carry that risk.

The best safeguard against Russian escalation, IMO, is to stand firm and making sure that the consequences of escalation are very unattractive to the Kremlin. Focusing overly on the psychology of Putin or Kremlin dysfunctions - or excessive handwringing about "what if this one little thing happens and that's what sets everything off" doom and gloom - isn't really helpful.

The thing that will trigger escalation is if Putin thinks it's the best reaction to losing... and we're not going to let up and let him not lose.

[Tamas]

Yeah, based on my Hungarian experiences I do have some sympathy for the average Russian but not a whole lot. Hungary is on an almost identical road to Russia, about 5-10 years behind. I have seen the apathy and quiet support that enables autocracy to grow.

Those who fight the regime should be supported and applauded, the rest are at best irrelevant in the larger scheme of protecting ourselves from the error of their ways.

[Jacob]

Looks like more sanctions are being implemented. Among other actions, Russia is losing their "most favoured nation" status with the US, G7, and the EU. They're also working to cut of Russian financing options via the IMF, the World Bank, and the European Development Bank

Abramovich has been sanctioned in Canada, his assets frozen.

Meanwhile, Ukraine is saying they have intel indicating that Belarus may join the war this evening / tonight.