Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[celedhring]

But interestingly good Tsar/bad boyars going on.

I wouldn't read too much into that, the "good tsar/bad advisers" narrative is probably as far as you can go without accidentally falling off a window.

[Grey Fox]

How do you hide the preparations of a major offensive when the enemy has satellites?

Russia doesn't have nearly as many satellites as the US or China does, nor are they of similar quality.

And always to consider : No IR capabilities. We have kept our IR technologies from them, China did the same.

[Legbiter]

Ukraine is very big Kharkiv oblast is about the size of Belgium and Ukraine's taken back a big chunk.

Shaping up to be a nice Wales-sized chunk of Ukraine that's being liberated. 

[Tamas]

I find the punitive shelling of civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv especially disdainful. Fucking barbarians.

[viper37]

I find the punitive shelling of civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv especially disdainful.

But not exactly surprising.

[The Brain]

Is there still no decision from the Kremlin on how to spin this? Last I heard Russian media is just denying with the usual stuff, but no actual message.

[Legbiter]

I find the punitive shelling of civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv especially disdainful. Fucking barbarians.

Not to mention 2 can play that game. Belgorod is just across the Russian border.

[Barrister]

I find the punitive shelling of civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv especially disdainful. Fucking barbarians.

Not to mention 2 can play that game. Belgorod is just across the Russian border.

Nuts to that.  The Ukrainians have maintained the moral high ground all through this war precisely because they don't do nonsense like that.

I mean it's a shame that the West made Ukraine promise not to use the weaponry given to them to strike inside Russia proper as Belgorod has valid military targets, but they're not striking at civilians.

[Jacob]

Is there still no decision from the Kremlin on how to spin this? Last I heard Russian media is just denying with the usual stuff, but no actual message.

Tucker Carlson's spin is "it's undeniable that Ukraine is losing", as supported by his "America's problems are the fault of 'rootless cosmopolitans' and their minions" commentator: https://twitter.com/MattGertz/status/1569321565531115523

It seems likely to me that Carlson is committed to supporting the Putin regime and oppose democracy - whether for reasons of ideology, kompromat, or profit. The question I'm still not sure about is whether that is Murdoch-Fox's position as well, or whether it's just Carlson on is own.

[Legbiter]

Is there still no decision from the Kremlin on how to spin this? Last I heard Russian media is just denying with the usual stuff, but no actual message.

It is being called a "regrouping" by the Russian authorities...Russian state tv is indignant but does not seem to have as yet a settled narrative. Pro-Kremlin telegram accounts are in the impotent rage stage.

[Sheilbh]

I find the punitive shelling of civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv especially disdainful. Fucking barbarians.

Yes - but also pathetic and futile.

There is still a lot of Ukraine to liberate, but it reminds me of the V2 bombings in London in 1944-5. That's all they have left. They aren't a threat to Kharkiv or Kyiv any more so all they can do is kill civilians from a distance in cities they have no hope of taking.

[Maladict]

There is still a lot of Ukraine to liberate, but it reminds me of the V2 bombings in London in 1944-5. That's all they have left.

And nukes.

[Jacob]

I find the punitive shelling of civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv especially disdainful. Fucking barbarians.

Not to mention 2 can play that game. Belgorod is just across the Russian border.

Nuts to that.  The Ukrainians have maintained the moral high ground all through this war precisely because they don't do nonsense like that.

I mean it's a shame that the West made Ukraine promise not to use the weaponry given to them to strike inside Russia proper as Belgorod has valid military targets, but they're not striking at civilians.

I'm under the impression that Ukraine is already targeting military and logistical targets in Bilhorod using their homegrown and Russian originated armaments.

Also I think even from a pure military strategic analysis there is no reason for Ukraine to target civilian targets for a few reasons:

1. Russian morale is already receiving shocks from the loss of military target and general negative momentum. Targeting civilians in Bilhorod is unlikely to add to that.

2. Ukraine consistently targets high-value military targets for what appears clear strategic reasons. Civilian targets (even if you considered them legitimate) probably sit pretty low on the value list. Terrorizing Russian civilians doesn't seem to align with the current Ukrainian strategic objectives.

3. Ukrainian morale and self-understanding is based on being righteous liberators of their own lands. Targeting Russian civilians would potentially undermine that to some extent.

4. Deliberately targeting civilians could undermine Western support to some extent.

So yeah, I don't think it's strategically sound for Ukraine to target civilians even if you put aside moral and legal considerations (which you shouldn't).

[Malthus]

There is also another factor: in an autocracy, it isn't like terrorized civilians will sway the government.

Edit: and if the history of the 20th century has taught anything, it is that civilians are hard to terrorize - bombing them, unless it completely obliterates whole cities, usually fails to break their morale; more like makes them angry.

[Barrister]

I'm under the impression that Ukraine is already targeting military and logistical targets in Bilhorod using their homegrown and Russian originated armaments.

As an aside - I am trying to get into the habit of using Ukrainian transliterations, rather than Russian.  But while yes Bilhorod/Belgorod historically had a sizeable Ukrainian population, it is part of the Russian federation and thoroughly russified at this point

I recall fairly early in the war the Ukrainians striking at a Belgorod fuel depot using helicopters flying low.  It was somewhat shocking at the time as it was an early example of Ukraine not just defending themselves but striking back.  But I haven't heard of any more recent strikes there.  I suspect because of US/Western demands (and those demands have been fairly reasonable - there's no restrictions on hitting Crimea for example).