Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[The Brain]

Renaming drinks seems just to be common sense. If I go to a bar I don't want to be reminded of people shelling civilians. The academic journal seems bizarre, which journal is it?

[The Minsky Moment]

The question for Russia now is what to do next . . . Russia has used up its limit for political and socio-economic upheavals, cataclysms and radical reforms . . . Responsible socio-political forces ought to offer the nation a strategy of Russia's revival and prosperity based on all the positive that has been accumulated over the period of market and democratic reforms and implemented only by evolutionary, gradual and prudent methods. This strategy should be carried out in a situation of political stability and should not lead to a deterioration of the life of the Russian people, of any of its sections and groups . . .

Belief in the greatness of Russia. Russia was and will remain a great power. It is preconditioned by the inseparable characteristics of its geopolitical, economic and cultural existence. They determined the mentality of Russians and the policy of the government throughout the history of Russia and they cannot but do so at present.

But Russian mentality should be expanded by new ideas. In the present world the might of a country as a great power is manifested more in its ability to be the leader in creating and using advanced technologies, ensuring a high level of people's wellbeing, reliably protecting its security and upholding its national interests in the international arena, than in its military strength . . .

Russia needs a strong state power and must have it. I am not calling for totalitarianism. History proves all dictatorships, all authoritarian forms of government are transient. Only democratic systems are intransient. Whatever the shortcomings, mankind has not devised anything superior. A strong state power in Russia is a democratic, law-based, workable federative state.

Vladimir Putin, Russia at the Turn of the Millennium

[Sheilbh]

Update from Macron after his latest 90 minute call with Putin. Reportedly Macron believes the "worst is yet to come" and Putin "intends to control the whole of Ukraine". I think this is not a surprise but still concerning to see it being the view at the highest level

[Syt]

Vladimir Putin, Russia at the Turn of the Millennium

To quote Konrad Adenauer: "What do I care for my gibberish from yesterday; nothing keeps me from becoming wiser." 

[Syt]

https://twitter.com/amnesty/status/1499357519327731716?s=20&t=94QqPaLlCEa6HTZOettgHA

Amnesty International
@amnesty

A verified image first acquired by @bellingcat shows the attack included Russian-manufactured 300mm Smerch rockets with 9N235 cluster munitions. The 2019 manufacture date, after Russia stopped selling these arms to Ukraine, indicates that the attack was launched by Russia.

[DGuller]

Ostracism of anything Russian is our main weapon against Russia that doesn't risk WW3.  I don't think it's silly to treat anything Russian as toxic. 

Let's not forget that it's not even about just punishing Russia, we also have to protect ourselves against Russian influence that has put democracy on the ropes in the West in some countries.  The more we make Russia a toxic brand anywhere and everywhere, the more difficult it would make for Russia to continue cultivating their fifth column against the West.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Interesting take on Russian economy from a Russia-born professor of economics in Chicago:

From here:
https://mobile.twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1499157917399977987?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1499157917399977987%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.redditmedia.com%2Fmediaembed%2Fliveupdate%2F18hnzysb1elcs%2FLiveUpdate_5c993db4-9a99-11ec-9f4c-0628e2b08387%2F0

If this war is still going on in 6 months (whatever it may look like, whether it's shifted to an insurgency then or etc), I think it will be like a generational set back for Russia, like rolling back the clock potentially decades on their economic development. A fast settlement in which some sanctions are reduced is the only thing that can likely prevent that--even that is still going to leave Russia probably permanently reduced in its access to Western markets, because I think a lot of these relationships being severed now will only be partially restored even after sanctions end.

[The Brain]

Ostracism of anything Russian is our main weapon against Russia that doesn't risk WW3.  I don't think it's silly to treat anything Russian as toxic. 

Let's not forget that it's not even about just punishing Russia, we also have to protect ourselves against Russian influence that has put democracy on the ropes in the West in some countries.  The more we make Russia a toxic brand anywhere and everywhere, the more difficult it would make for Russia to continue cultivating their fifth column against the West.

Yeah. And Russia has actively decided to make its brand toxic. There is no need to feel sorry for Russia.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I'm also somewhat curious what Russia's strategic thinking is on what they will actually do with a Ukraine that has all its major cities turned into rubble. What does control of that actually accrue to Russia as any sort of benefit?

[The Brain]

I'm also somewhat curious what Russia's strategic thinking is on what they will actually do with a Ukraine that has all its major cities turned into rubble. What does control of that actually accrue to Russia as any sort of benefit?

It's 200 IQ big brain 5D chess.

[The Minsky Moment]

Random thoughts
1) Russia acknowledged 500 KIA with the Ukrainians claiming 5000.  Even the 500 would be much higher than the total KIA in the 2003 US invasion of Iraq.  The 5000 number would be close to all American military KIA in the entire global war on terror from 2003-2021, all theaters. 

2) Although sanctions clearly will damage the Russian economy, the reality is that there have been few historically successively sanctions regimes.  South Africa is one but it took a long time to work and the circumstances were quite different.  Iran was a limited success, and then a failure after Trump walked away from the return.

The main export earner for the Russian economy - the energy sector - remains open for business.  Since the government has ordered that 80% of export earnings be exchanged for rubles, that provides a base level of support for the domestic currency. China, India, and Pakistan are not participating the sanctions regime.  China in particular is obviously a big hole as they likely have the means of setting up facilities for exchange that circumvent the Western-centered financial system.

[Sheilbh]

I'm also somewhat curious what Russia's strategic thinking is on what they will actually do with a Ukraine that has all its major cities turned into rubble. What does control of that actually accrue to Russia as any sort of benefit?

Again I think Putin believed his own line - that there would be no Ukrainian resistance, that Ukraine could easily be Belarussified and that it would all be quite quick and (relatively) bloodless.

As it is I think even if they "win" it's going to be a really expensive and difficult problem - even if there's no ongoing insurgency - to deal with with limited and dwindling resources. But I think pulling out is more politically challenging because, from all accounts, this has very much been driven by Putin and his very tight circle and I don't know if it (or the military for that matter) can be seen to be defeated by Ukraine.

[viper37]

I'm also somewhat curious what Russia's strategic thinking is on what they will actually do with a Ukraine that has all its major cities turned into rubble. What does control of that actually accrue to Russia as any sort of benefit?

it has natural resources, and part of the population is willing to work with Moscow.  The rest will be eliminated.

[Savonarola]

Yeah I saw a piece about cocktail bars renaming Moscow Mules and an academic journal proudly announcing they were stopping publishing in Russian (a language also used in Ukraine). It just made me think this is dumb and not the point of a cultural boycott/sanctions.

Heh, I read in one of Edwin Newman's books that Cuba Libre was (briefly) renamed the Puerto Rico Libre in some bars during the missile crisis.  (Which is still much better than 2003's Freedom Fries.)

[Tamas]

I agree that Russia and by proxy, Russians, must be punished severely economically and culturally, with no remorse. The only alternative way to stopp Putinist Russia is nuclear war.

This also shall -hopefully- serve as an example to other "adventurous" countries on the backlash they may see.