Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[mongers]

Ukrainian servicemen train to shoot a machine gun from an M113 Armoured Personnel Carrier (APC) in Donbas region, Ukraine [Yan Dorbronosov/Reuters]

Could almost be Vietnam, rather than Ukraine today.

[Josquius]

Are flak guns still a thing anywhere?

[Hamilcar]

The West is underinvested in SAMs in large part because they are just so damned expensive.  A Patriot missile costs considerably more (in constant dollars) than a B-24 or Lancaster bomber did in WW2, and it's a one-use airframe.  Even Evolved Sea Sparrow is about the cost of those big bombers.

Basic question: if SAMs are so expensive, why did the Soviets go all in on them? And why did all their developing country clients follow?

[Admiral Yi]

Are flak guns still a thing anywhere?

The US has the Phalanx and the land based equivalent.  Germany makes some SP AA gun.  The Russians must still have that SP quad cannon.  SZU-23-4.

[mongers]

Are flak guns still a thing anywhere?

The US has the Phalanx and the land based equivalent.  Germany makes some SP AA gun.  The Russians must still have that SP quad cannon.  SZU-23-4.

M163? not so much a phalanx, which iirc is a ship borne system, I think the apc mounted M163 is more of an aircraft 20mm vulcan cannon system, maybe fewer barrels than phalanx?

[grumbler]

The West is underinvested in SAMs in large part because they are just so damned expensive.  A Patriot missile costs considerably more (in constant dollars) than a B-24 or Lancaster bomber did in WW2, and it's a one-use airframe.  Even Evolved Sea Sparrow is about the cost of those big bombers.

Basic question: if SAMs are so expensive, why did the Soviets go all in on them? And why did all their developing country clients follow?

Probably because aircraft costs have gone up even more; a Dassault Rafale costs more than a WW2 Fletcher class destroyer, in current dollars.  Plus, SAM batteries don't require the training an equivalent value of aircraft need.

[Threviel]

Probably because aircraft costs have gone up even more; a Dassault Rafale costs more than a WW2 Fletcher class destroyer, in current dollars.  Plus, SAM batteries don't require the training an equivalent value of aircraft need.

Extremely interesting numbers. Do you have some idea about how costs compare relative to GDP instead?

[grumbler]

M163? not so much a phalanx, which iirc is a ship borne system, I think the apc mounted M163 is more of an aircraft 20mm vulcan cannon system, maybe fewer barrels than phalanx?

The M163 has been out of service for 30 years.  The modern equivalent is the Land-based Phalanx (exactly the same as the sea-based version) used for defense of static targets in Afghanistan from rockets, artillery, and mortars.  Aircraft have too high a bearing rate for guns to track, so mobile land units use short-range SAMs instead.

[grumbler]

Probably because aircraft costs have gone up even more; a Dassault Rafale costs more than a WW2 Fletcher class destroyer, in current dollars.  Plus, SAM batteries don't require the training an equivalent value of aircraft need.

Extremely interesting numbers. Do you have some idea about how costs compare relative to GDP instead?

Can't go back to 1943, but US real GDP was estimated at about $2T in 1947, compared to about $20T today. St Louis Fed

The entire 1947 US GDP would have been able to purchase roughly 333,000 1943-priced Fletcher class destroyers. The 2022 US GDP could buy roughly 200,000 Rafales.

[The Larch]

Mentioning hardware, here's an interesting article on how drones have seen their efficiency reduced as the war went on, with the Russians now being able to severely limit their lifespan, and how the Ukrainians are trying to come up with new stuff to fight back.

'They're starting to die': fears Ukraine's drone supremacy may soon be over
Frontline drone operators say Russia is close to countering their most popular models – setting off a race to find replacements

Crouching in a freezing basement or risking it all on top of a nine-storey building, the drone squads in the war zone of Bakhmut are ubiquitous. Some are forced to lurk a few hundred metres from, or even on, the frontline. Without them, Ukraine's efforts to hold on to the embattled city would be much harder, perhaps impossible.

But the concern for Ukraine, according to three frontline drone operators deployed in the city over the winter, is that the Russians are close to countering the most popular models in operation, those made by the Chinese manufacturer DJI. "They're adept and they are manufacturing these special jamming systems," said Yaroslav, 31.

"So actually, I believe like in three, four months, DJI will not be usable," the drone specialist said. It means a scramble has been going on to look for replacements, prompting countless Ukrainian initiatives in probably the most dynamic aspect of the near 14-month war, a conflict in which drones have so far largely helped defenders.

Yaroslav and Maksym, both from Kharkiv, met on the steps of a recruiting office in the days after the war began. Neither had any military experience, but after moving their families to safety farther west in the country, the two men were recruited into Ukraine's 63rd brigade, operating in the summer around Mykolaiv to the south – before switching to the hot zone of Bakhmut in December and January.

Their day in Bakhmut would typically start before dawn, where working in a group of two or three, the men would have brought at least a pair of drones to their forward position, most likely a simple DJI Mavic 3 quadcopter (which costs £1,399 in the UK) or perhaps a more advanced DJI Matrice 30T (£12,098) – and a pile of 20 to 30 batteries, because "in winter, the battery life is about half an hour", said Maksym.

To say the work in Bakhmut, scene of the heaviest fighting in the war, is intense is an understatement. Maksym described watching a Russian attack that lasted "seven hours, with wave after wave of attackers" coming at Ukrainian positions in small groups "from the morning until about 3pm", each being sought out from above to give Ukrainian soldiers a chance to stop them.

It is terrifying and dehumanising, watching the violence from overhead and dropping bombs down below. "When you are watching movies, you think you must feel something when you are killing people. But in the war, there are no emotions, you just totally do what you need to do," said Yaroslav, although both admitted the three-week break they have had from the frontline had not been long enough.

Drone operators such as Maksym and Yaroslav, embedded within frontline battalions, are asked to conduct reconnaissance, monitoring enemy attacks, or search for higher-value targets such as artillery pieces, although in Bakhmut the Russians only briefly fire these about 3 miles (5km) behind enemy lines. "You only have a couple of minutes to catch and destroy them," Yaroslav said. They also help Ukrainian gunners correct their aim, and occasionally use armed drones if required.

Hundreds of war videos filmed from above demonstrate the military capability of drones. They are used as propaganda vehicles by both sides, and in Ukraine it is common for brigades or battalions to have a videographer to help produce such content. Images of the detail of the devastation of Bakhmut illustrate what can be seen.

In theory, DJI drones were banned in Ukraine and Russia by the company nearly a year ago, with DJI saying it "abhors any use of our drones to cause harm". But in practice they are bought in large numbers by donors from Europe and the US – the Star Wars actor Mark Hamill fronts one fundraising campaign – and shipped across the border, because they have proved the most effective for local-level reconnaissance and can be easily modified to carry grenades to bomb from above.

But the drone operators report the DJI craft are gradually becoming less effective, as Russian electronic warfare techniques diminish their range. The environment in Bakhmut, where sight lines are restricted by the remaining buildings, is also often more difficult, as was the winter weather, but a frontline drone squad may only cover a few hundred metres, whereas before their effective range was 10 or 20 times more.

"In Mykolaiv we had 15km to cover, and in Bakhmut only 500 metres – and even for these 500 metres it was tough to cover with two drones," Yaroslav said, adding that on the southern front in the autumn it was possible to cross 6km (3.7 miles) beyond the frontline, but in Bakhmut "1km maximum, sometimes it was not possible to cross the border".

Combat losses are also considerable, with friendly fire a particular problem, as nervous infantry on the ground know the presence of a drone loitering for a moment above can be a prelude to accurate incoming artillery. Sometimes a drone does not last a day, other times it can be preserved for several months. Operators are considered key targets; Maxsym has shrapnel embedded in his right arm from a shell that landed near him while on duty in Bakhmut.

Yevhen, 38, another drone operator from Kharkiv, is a friend of Maksym and Yaroslav, and like them was deployed in Bakhmut for three months over the winter. Like them, he believes the days of the frontline DJI drone are numbered. "Frankly speaking for me, Mavics are already starting to die. In December we were able to fly 3km, so we were not working from the zero point [the frontline]. Now the guys are saying they cannot fly further than 500 metres," he said.

As a result, Yevhen, a computer programmer before the war, has moved away from frontline work to help develop new types of drones to overcome what is likely to be a looming battlefield problem. He is involved in testing a longer-range Ukrainian-made Windhover drone with the country's army, although the three-pronged six-rotor device has been in development since before the war – one of many homegrown drone projects taking place around the country.

Yevhen predicts that replacing DJIs in the frontline will require a mixture of longer-range but more expensive fixed-wing reconnaissance drones operating from further in the rear, such as the Leleka-100, which costs about $50,000 (£40,000) and has a range of up to 100km, combined with "FPV" (first person view) kamikaze drones: light, high-speed racing drones with bombs attached, often controlled via headsets. Ukraine has sought 1,000, although their effectiveness in volume is not yet proven.

Samuel Bendett, a drone expert with the US Center for Naval Analyses, says the likely change in technology could favour Ukraine. The "Russians are very concerned that Ukrainians have the advantage" when it comes to the FPV drones, worried that a large number will be used to support a Ukrainian counteroffensive, and that Moscow may not have enough pilots or technological know-how to keep up.

"This is a technology race not just between the militaries, but also between the volunteers with their own technology arsenals," he added.

[Threviel]

Can't go back to 1943, but US real GDP was estimated at about $2T in 1947, compared to about $20T today. St Louis Fed

The entire 1947 US GDP would have been able to purchase roughly 333,000 1943-priced Fletcher class destroyers. The 2022 US GDP could buy roughly 200,000 Rafales.

Hot dang, that is interesting. The US built some 2-300 destroyers during the war, comparable to building 200ish rafales in a four year total mobilization.

I had not realized that modern equipment is so insanely much more expensive. Also puts the size of the USAF in perspective.

[Hamilcar]

Can't go back to 1943, but US real GDP was estimated at about $2T in 1947, compared to about $20T today. St Louis Fed

The entire 1947 US GDP would have been able to purchase roughly 333,000 1943-priced Fletcher class destroyers. The 2022 US GDP could buy roughly 200,000 Rafales.

Hot dang, that is interesting. The US built some 2-300 destroyers during the war, comparable to building 200ish rafales in a four year total mobilization.

I had not realized that modern equipment is so insanely much more expensive. Also puts the size of the USAF in perspective.

That is indeed very interesting. Thanks!

[DGuller]

I wonder if the cost of weaponry is a strategic weakness.  On the one hand, quality matters much more in 2023, but on the other hand, quality without any quantity is meaningless.  Maybe there is a niche for much cheaper good enough armament that you can readily lend lease without concerns about either quantity of your own stocks or leaking military secrets?

[mongers]

Mentioning hardware, here's an interesting article on how drones have seen their efficiency reduced as the war went on, with the Russians now being able to severely limit their lifespan, and how the Ukrainians are trying to come up with new stuff to fight back.

'They're starting to die': fears Ukraine's drone supremacy may soon be over
Frontline drone operators say Russia is close to countering their most popular models – setting off a race to find replacements

Crouching in a freezing basement or risking it all on top of a nine-storey building, the drone squads in the war zone of Bakhmut are ubiquitous. Some are forced to lurk a few hundred metres from, or even on, the frontline. Without them, Ukraine's efforts to hold on to the embattled city would be much harder, perhaps impossible.
....snip

"This is a technology race not just between the militaries, but also between the volunteers with their own technology arsenals," he added.

Thanks, Larch that was interesting.

[Sheilbh]

I dunno. I recall a recent case of an openly pro Russia fascist in a position of minor responsibility shockingly turning out to be a spy.
Really wouldn't be shocked if there's other worse cases.

Or how about this for a conspiracy - they did it to hurt Biden and aid republican hopes in the next election. Heil trump.

Turns out it was someone trying to win an argument on Discord - truly we live in the stupidest timeline

Pentagon leak traced to video game chat group users arguing over war in Ukraine
Analysis suggests top-secret documents were first shared on closed gamer chatrooms hosted by Discord
Alex Hern UK technology editor
@alexhern
Tue 11 Apr 2023 14.46 BST

A damaging batch of documents leaked from the Pentagon appears to have been initially shared on the video game chat platform Discord in an effort to win an argument about the war in Ukraine, according to open-source intelligence analysts.

The bizarre provenance of the leak may seem unusual but it is far from the first time that a dispute between gamers has sparked an intelligence breach, with the overlapping communities causing problems for military and gaming platforms alike.

The existence of the leaked cache was exposed as documents showing estimated casualties in the Bakhmut theatre of battle began circulating on public social networks last week.

Two versions of those documents, one of which had been crudely digitally altered to understate Russian casualties and overstate Ukrainian ones, were passed around among observers of the war. One, with the correct figures, stemmed from a leak to 4chan, the chaotic image board best known for birthing the "alt right" movement.

At the same time, a second set of documents, including the edited image, were being passed around pro-Russian Telegram channels.

Neither was the original source, however. Before they emerged on to the public internet, the documents had been shared on closed chatrooms hosted by Discord, a gamer-focused chat app. In one server, called "Minecraft Earth Map", 10 of the documents were posted as early as 4 March, a month before they appeared on 4chan.

"After a brief spat with another person on the server about Minecraft Maps and the war in Ukraine, one of the Discord users replied: 'Here, have some leaked documents' – attaching 10 documents about Ukraine, some of which bore the 'top secret' markings," said Aric Toler, an analyst at the investigative research group§ Bellingcat.

That user had, in turn, found them on another Discord server, run by and for fans of the Filipino YouTuber WowMao, where 30 documents had been posted three days earlier, with "dozens" of other unverified documents about Ukraine. However, even that did not appear to be the original source: a third Discord server, named "Thug Shaker Central", among other titles, may have been where the documents were originally posted as early as mid-January.

"Posts and channel listings show that the server's users were interested in video games, music, Orthodox Christianity, and fandom for the popular YouTuber 'Oxide'," Toler said, referencing the military-themed YouTube channel. "This server was not especially geopolitical in nature, although its users had a staunchly conservative stance on several issues, members told Bellingcat. Racial slurs and racist memes were shared widely."

Although the scale and sensitivity of the leaks are significant, this is not the first time that an intelligence breach has been traced back to an argument about video games. One game in particular, the vehicular combat simulation War Thunder, has become notorious for the sheer quantity of leaks linked to it.

The game, which has a reputation for accuracy, has 70 million players worldwide, leading to regular disputes about balance and accuracy – as a result, users have made breaches in at least 10 separate cases since 2020, frequently through posting classified documents about the capability of active weaponry in an effort to argue for the digital version of the vehicle to be improved.

In October 2021, for instance, classified design details about the French Leclerc tank were posted to win an argument about turret rotation speed. In July 2021, a user claiming to be a tank commander in the British army posted documents about the armour structure of the vehicle to win an argument. In January this year, design documents covering at least five separate fighter jets were posted by four different users.

The game has become such a shorthand for intelligence failures that the military contractor Raytheon was forced to deny reports that it specifically asked about War Thunder as part of a security clearance process.

It makes you yearn for the days of microfiche