Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Razgovory]

If the Russian army loses 4,000 a week, how many weeks can they remain an effective combat force?

[HVC]

If the Russian army loses 4,000 a week, how many weeks can they remain an effective combat force?

Where's the multiple choice answers?

[Malthus]

Not really, as these kind of casualties levels might be expected in this toe-to-toe fighting; I think from Putin and Russia's perspective they don't matter a great deal.

However when the war is into it's 2nd, 3rd or 4th month and the Ukrainians still haven't buckled then lots of the active Russian combat forces will be spent or have ground to a halt. I'd suggest that is what will be seen as a disaster.

I dunno... if you're expecting to launch a decapitation strike taking out the opposition government and control its major cities after a few days, then having taken none of the cities and losing 4,000 troops (and hundreds of millions of dollars worth of equipment) in a week does qualify as an operational disaster as far as I'm concerned.

Maybe it's something they can recover from, but it's a disaster nonetheless.

Indeed.

From what little I understand, in addition to the logistical issues, the Russian army has serious problems dealing with units on the ground dealing with what amounts to a major change is strategy - one that would require a great deal of initiative from leaders on the ground. Hence the ponderous inability to make rapid progress (well, that and fierce Ukrainian resistance).

This may not mean that, eventually, Ukrainian forces will not be ground down under the weight of Russian power. It looks like Kyiv may soon come under siege, which will be brutal.

[jimmy olsen]

A U.S. General has just stated he believes around 4000 Russian soldiers have died. While not as high as the Ukrainians had said it's a lot higher than I thought, I figured the 500ish in week 1 that the Kremlin disclosed seemed about right for a "bad" outcome given the relative military powers of the two countries. Four thousand in a week is a fucking disaster.

This guy documents all loses that have been photographed or filmed.
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html?m=1

The number of dead from the destroyed and captured armored and infantry fighting vehicles alone would be over a thousand dead.

[viper37]

If the Russian army loses 4,000 a week, how many weeks can they remain an effective combat force?

They won't lose 4000 a weeks, they'll eventually adjust.  But anyway, if they get into a recruiting drive and stabilize their losses at about 1000 a week, they can last a while longer.  Conscription will eventually help too.

[Razgovory]

I suppose if you lose 10% of your force a week the number of real casualties will decline each week...

As Grumbler pointed out 5000 a week is WW2 levels of casualties.  You need full mobilization and a war economy to replace that.

[OttoVonBismarck]

As grumbler pointed out too, it's not just the KIA (which the DIA said could be 2,000-4,000, so let's not assume 4000 is inherently correct), it's what a KIA number at that level suggests. It suggests many more casualties--in military terms the difference between a killed soldier and a wounded soldier who can no longer fight is minimal. Obviously, it's all the difference in the world for their families back home, but from a military realism perspective, a unit of manpower is gone either way. If we're really looking at 2-4k dead in week one, there are many more very likely who are going home grievously injured. War wounded are visible and undeniable back home.

Note there has also been a high loss of equipment, particularly vehicles--those are in some ways even more troublesome to replace than a conscript on a forced four-month contract, particularly when your country may soon be in an industrial crisis.

I agree that Russia is likely to adapt and improve and such terrible results for them won't be the weekly norm, but it's not a good sign for week one.

[Valmy]

If the Russian army loses 4,000 a week, how many weeks can they remain an effective combat force?

They won't lose 4000 a weeks, they'll eventually adjust.  But anyway, if they get into a recruiting drive and stabilize their losses at about 1000 a week, they can last a while longer.  Conscription will eventually help too.

Well nothing enables you to scrape the bottom of the barrel manpower wise than being invaded. The Ukrainians are going to have everybody between the ages of 16 and 60 out there at some point. Going to be difficult for the Russians to win a battle of attrition, especially if foreign powers are supplying the Ukrainians.

[Legbiter]

I don't know what the zoomer kids in Russia will do if Putin orders general mobilization. That will take time I'm not sure the Russians have. They could denude other border defenses of units, ship them out west but again, that's going to take time and if logistics are shit anyway, may not help that much. 

Man, that new HOIV DLC really fucked up the Russians.

[Jacob]

I'm willing to believe that this is the nadir of the Russian action and they'll start to get their shit together.

But I'm also willing to believe that it'll get worse for them after a poor start.

I guess we'll see.

Relatedly, I'm guessing we'll start to see China supplying Russia in various ways. It'll be interesting to see how, how much, and under what terms (if we can find out).

[Jacob]

I'm seeing reports that the EU is going to cut Russian gas and oil imports by 2/3 by the end of the year. That's non-trivial in terms of impact on both Russia and the EU, I reckon - even if it's going to take a bit longer than ideal.

[Jacob]

I meant to mention this yesterday as well - apparently a Finnish petition has gathered enough signatures that Finnish parliament is going to debate applying to join NATO.

[Syt]

Apparently Russia is suspending the trade of foreign currencies until September.

[Jacob]

Apparently Russia is suspending the trade of foreign currencies until September.

I guess the much vaunted foreign currency reserves are not turning out as helpful as Putin expected.

[Admiral Yi]

Makes me wonder why the Russian central bank held its hard currency deposits overseas.  For the interest?

Biscuit, you said you work at Treasury, any ideas?