Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Tamas]

The krauts are still blocking weapon shipments from several countries. Official policy to avoid bloodshed, fucking hypocrites...

Apparently being lifted - but the issue is that block covered a lot of European arms because it applied for part manufacture too, like Franco-German defence production.

Really baffled by the way the German government keeps taking a blocking position on for long enough for people to get annoyed about it, and then u-turn so late that they get no credit. It's consistently picking the worst of all worlds.

Probably widely infiltrated by Russians agents/interests. Always takes some very high level obersomethingfuhrer to step in and get things moving.

[celedhring]

Interesting Twitter thread by an Estonian former chief of defence:

https://twitter.com/RihoTerras/status/1497537193346220038

Intel from a Ukrainian officer about a meeting in Putin's lair in Urals. Oligarchs convened there so no one would flee. Putin is furious, he thought that the whole war would be easy and everything would be done in 1-4 days.

Russians didn't have a tactical plan. The war costs about $20 bln/day. There are rockets for 3-4 days at most, they use them sparingly. They lack weapons, the Tula and 2 Rotenberg plants can't physically fulfil the orders for weapons. Rifles and ammo are the most they can do.

The next Russian weapons can be produced in 3-4 months – if even that. They have no raw materials. What was previously supplied mainly from Slovenia, Finland and Germany is now cut off.

If Ukraine manages to hold the Russians off for 10 days, then the Russians will have to enter negotiations. Because they have no money, weapons, or resources. Nevertheless, they are indifferent about the sanctions.

Alpha Spec Ops have been near Kyiv since the 18th February. The goal was to take Kyiv and instal a puppet regime. They are preparing provocations against innocent civilians – women and children – to sow panic. This is their trump card.

Russia's whole plan relies on panic – that the civilians and armed forces surrender and Zelensky flees. They expect Kharkiv to surrender first so the other cities would follow suit to avoid bloodshed. The Russians are in shock of the fierce resistance they have encountered.

The Ukrainians must avoid panic! The missile strikes are for intimidation, the Russians fire them at random to "accidentally" hit residential buildings to make the attack look larger than it really is. Ukraine must stay strong and we must provide assistance!

Even if only a fraction of that turns out to be true, it paints a not very rosy picture for Russia in the mid-term.

That purported meeting reads like The Downfall meme 

[Legbiter]

Probably widely infiltrated by Russians agents/interests. Always takes some very high level obersomethingfuhrer to step in and get things moving.

The continental Europeans need Russia to win this and fast. The Ukrainians dragging this out and resisting heroically would make it much harder to quietly go back to business as usual. Say, once a year had passed. 

[Berkut]

That purported meeting reads like The Downfall meme 

It seems very unlikely.

After all, who has ever heard of a hubristic strongman being unaware that the lackeys he has surrounded himself with might not have been entirely honest about the state of his own forces, and then over-estimating his own power, while radically under-estimating the will of a more liberal society to resists his agression?

I mean, that seems preposterous, doesn't it?

[Crazy_Ivan80]

From the desk of Mededev, per WaPo:

Russia's former president Dmitry Medvedev, in a lengthy personal essay Saturday, defended President Vladimir Putin's actions in Ukraine and said Russia did not need diplomatic ties with the West.

Writing on his official page on the Russian social media site VKontakte, he said: "There is no particular need in maintaining diplomatic relations," and it is time to "padlock the embassies" in Moscow. "We may look at each other in binoculars and gunsights," he added, according to the Associated Press.

Medvedev also appeared to dismiss newly imposed Western sanctions and said they showed the "political impotence" of the United States, the European Union and others. He said that in response, Russia could use a number of levers, including opting out of the New START nuclear arms control treaty, which limits the U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals, and freezing Western assets in Russia.

He also lashed out at Russia's suspension from the Council of Europe on Friday and said the move from the human rights organization could make Russia reconsider some of its laws, including reinstating the death penalty.

Medvedev is now the deputy head of Russia's Security Council, which is chaired by Putin. He said Russia would continue what he called its military operation in Ukraine until it had achieved all of its aims, without specifying what they are.

Seems like he needs to make up his mind. If Russia doesn't need diplomatic relations he doesn't need to bitch about being thrown out of the clubs

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Agreed, but it won't some the crazy Right and Left in the the West from continuing to idolise him.

that's nothing new: the absolute butchery of Lenin and Stalin didn't dissuade a lot of westerners of supporting those two and the horrible regime they represented. Same with Hitler, same with Mao.

[Legbiter]

Ukraine's Defence Ministry have launched a hotline for mother's of Russian soldiers captured or killed in Ukraine where they can get information. No language barrier and a sharp contrast to the Kremlin stonewalling. It seems like a very smart move - and Ukraine is proving very good at propaganda both from what I can see to Russia and the rest of the world.

Zelensky really has risen to the occasion. I have serious respect for that man. The Americans have also gobsmacked me with how they actually took a bad hand and, for once in forever, actually played it well. Calling out every Russian action well in advance, letting Kremlin propaganda vehemently deny it, only to be vindicated weeks later destroyed the Russian internal propaganda effort, hence you have widespread unease and protests within Russia.

[Berkut]

Is there some reason we cannot just start siezing the assets of the oligarchs in the West?

Sell them and use the money to buy more weapons for Ukraine.

[Jacob]

Ukraine's Defence Ministry have launched a hotline for mother's of Russian soldiers captured or killed in Ukraine where they can get information. No language barrier and a sharp contrast to the Kremlin stonewalling. It seems like a very smart move - and Ukraine is proving very good at propaganda both from what I can see to Russia and the rest of the world.

That is an incredible move.

It is humane and kind to the people involved - both the soldiers and mothers.

It highlights how Ukraine is a decent country, to Ukrainians, to Russians, to the world.

It gets the message out to Russians.

And it may even get a bit of valuable intel.

[Zanza]

The krauts are still blocking weapon shipments from several countries. Official policy to avoid bloodshed, fucking hypocrites...

Apparently being lifted - but the issue is that block covered a lot of European arms because it applied for part manufacture too, like Franco-German defence production.

Really baffled by the way the German government keeps taking a blocking position on for long enough for people to get annoyed about it, and then u-turn so late that they get no credit. It's consistently picking the worst of all worlds.

Yes, rather bizarre. It cannot even be for domestic reasons as public opinion is firmly in favor of more help for Ukraine.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Is there some reason we cannot just start siezing the assets of the oligarchs in the West?

Sell them and use the money to buy more weapons for Ukraine.

I'll second that question: can't the west do that? Would be nice and ironic too.

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another question: Russia is using mercenaries like that Wagner group. Aren't there Western aligned mercenary group that can be hired and sent to help out Ukraine? Even if only to free up Ukrainian official military resources?

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as it is: I think we have the face of 2022 btw. And it's not Putin.

[FunkMonk]

Russia getting absolutely obliterated in the global information and propaganda war is something to behold.

[Legbiter]

Is there some reason we cannot just start siezing the assets of the oligarchs in the West?

Sell them and use the money to buy more weapons for Ukraine.

The 90's billionaire playboy oligarch with extensive assets in the West is a very rare species these days. Most Russian industries are headed by former KGB boomers, loyal vassals all, of Putin. They don't care about money, they have the state. If they want to holiday somewhere with a Mediterranean climate, they can go to Crimea.

[Jacob]

French marines patrolling English Channel area intercept Russian cargo ship
• ASSOCIATED PRESS • FEBRUARY 26, 2022

French officials say marines patrolling the English Channel area have intercepted a cargo ship sailing under the Russian flag and escorted it to the port of Boulogne-Sur-Mer for an investigation.

The interception of the ship, carrying cars, early Saturday was triggered by financial sanctions levied days ago against Russia for its invasion of the Ukraine. Maritime spokesperson Veronique Magnin said it appeared to be the first such action in the English Channel.

The approximately 130-meter-(427-foot) ship was headed from Rouen, in Normandy, to Saint Petersburg, and was stopped near Honfleur, Magnin said.

https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2022-02-26/Ukraine-health-minister-198-killed-1000-wounded-in-Russian-offensive-5152372.html

Customs officials carrying out the investigation were verifying if the vessel is indeed linked to Russian financial interests, the spokesperson said. The process could take up to 48 hours.

The French government has given maritime officials the power to intercept vessels suspected of contravening the sanctions, she said.

https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2022-02-26/Ukraine-health-minister-198-killed-1000-wounded-in-Russian-offensive-5152372.html

Cars... Purely symbolic.

Cars may be purely symbolic, but symbols matter at this point. And it may be annoying. And hey... if it's all cars and other stuff going through the channel moving forward, that could be really annoying.

[celedhring]

My workplace has two Russians and two Ukrainians. They're both attending today's antiwar protest in BCN together.

As I've said in the past, the Russians at work have pretty despicable politics  (they never comment on domestic Russian stuff though), so that's something.