Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Berkut]

Isn't Wagner Group still active in Africa?  It would be a real shame if something happened to their cadres there. 
Plausible deniability is a 2 way street.

No shit. We need to start being willing to get a little dirty in response to others doing the same. 

[Sheilbh]

I've always been of the view that the US should not discourage that development. 

The departure of the UK from the EU on the one hand would weaken the effectiveness of such a force but on the other hand makes it more feasible. 

I agree - I think there is still an issue of different strategic priorities/view of risk. That means I think it is unlikely to be purely EU because I think that Eastern European countries will be pleased with the shift of Germany and France, but likely to want the UK involved. Because for six weeks from January the UK and Eastern European countries were the only ones getting or trying to get military aid to Ukraine.

I've also read that some European countries want to involve the UK in any security structure because it has access to better (American) intelligence that it can share - it was particularly striking in the early days of the crisis when the UK and US governments were publishing their intelligence and European agencies were publicly disagreeing.

I suspect in the short-term it's going to be more minilateralism rather than a big shift in the EU or anything else. So France deepening its military relations with Greece and Romania, the UK doing more with the JEF plus Poland. The big shift will be what Germany wants to do and become involved in as part of European defence. There's been lots of inchoate tallk of new EU measures (although this is constitutionally problematic for some member states) or a wider European security arrangement (including the UK), but my suspicion is whatever happens will probably build off those minilateral deeper relations.

If the war plays out with Russia bulldozing through the country and razing cities to the ground, and masses of displaced civilians flee to the western regions Ukraine, the question will be raised whether to provide protection to the western "safe zones"

I think both sides have already agreed in principle to humanitarian corridors. These are not respected by Russia in Syria.

But I think we'll definitely be looking at them and safe zones for civilians before long given the images we're seeing from Ukrainian cities

It's weird Austria would even bother.

There's talk about more funding for the Defence Forces in Ireland which I would never imagine. It's proving pretty contentious because of the politics of military neutrality in Ireland  but it's the first time I've seen politicians making a case for more funding.

[Habbaku]

he became most toxic and resorted to name-calling, calling me "Heresiarch"

Seems an appropiate insult for a HIS game.

Knowing the player who flung it out, yes, it was just the Russian player not understanding the tongue-in-cheek comment from a guy who has a deep knowledge of theology.

[Habbaku]

There's talk about more funding for the Defence Forces in Ireland which I would never imagine. It's proving pretty contentious because of the politics of military neutrality in Ireland  but it's the first time I've seen politicians making a case for more funding.

Which, to me, is even more ludicrous than Austria's increase in spending. Austria is, at least hypothetically, in the firing line. Ireland is nowhere near under threat.

If they want to make a serious commitment to their national defense, they should be loudly screaming in the EU Parliament about the requirement for a true EU Army ASAP, with appropriate commitment to Irish assistance in funding it.

[Legbiter]

No shit. We need to start being willing to get a little dirty in response to others doing the same.

Would be a shame if Russia had unfortunately seriously underestimated both Ukrainian drone numbers and trained operators. Ukrainian for a week could become a thing.

[Duque de Bragança]

From the EU point of view, it seems that the Austria money dedicated to the military would be much better spent on the German army than on their own.

Almost shame there is no longer a Bavarian Army, that would have made it easier.

[Malthus]

One question I've not seen addressed is why Putin waited until now to pull this move. Why not do it when Trump was still president? There is no way the blowback would have been as damaging to Russia if Trump was still around to screw up US diplomacy.

[Sheilbh]

If they want to make a serious commitment to their national defense, they should be loudly screaming in the EU Parliament about the requirement for a true EU Army ASAP, with appropriate commitment to Irish assistance in funding it.

That's where the issue of military neutrality comes in. Ireland would need to abstain - and probably have an opt-out on that. The popsition on Ukraine is that they are not politically neutral, but they are militarily neutral so for example they "constructively abstained" on the EU providing weaons to Ukraine - my reading of that is that they support it in pricniple but cannot constitutionally.

Ireland already has a semi opt-out of the mutual defence provision in the European treaties. However as a proportion of their forces, I think they are one of the worlds largest contributors to peacekeeping missions etc. And obviously Ireland has historically been relatively happy to allow, say, US forces to use Shannon airport.

[Jacob]

Saw a Newsweek headline that said Lavrov and Putin thought the West was being "hysterical" and would "get over" the invasion pretty soon. They even used the phrase "our partners in the West".

I am not convinced by the quality of that analysis.

[Jacob]

That's where the issue of military neutrality comes in. Ireland would need to abstain - and probably have an opt-out on that. The popsition on Ukraine is that they are not politically neutral, but they are militarily neutral so for example they "constructively abstained" on the EU providing weaons to Ukraine - my reading of that is that they support it in pricniple but cannot constitutionally.

Ireland already has a semi opt-out of the mutual defence provision in the European treaties. However as a proportion of their forces, I think they are one of the worlds largest contributors to peacekeeping missions etc. And obviously Ireland has historically been relatively happy to allow, say, US forces to use Shannon airport.

There's a solid chance that Denmark will end its opt-out on defense. It'd be put to a plebiscite, but apparently the gov't and opposition parties are discussing it with an aim to decide by next Wednesday or so. The primary counter argument (by the nationalist populists party) is that Danish defence should be anchored in the US and UK, not France and Germany.

It also looks like defense spending is going to get to the target 2%, though they're argueing about where the money is going to come from. In terms of where the spending is going to go, it looks like they're discussing Frigates, Arctic capalities, cyber warfare, and increasing troop numbers. But we'll see.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah the UK Defence Secretary was in Copenhagen today because I think both the UK and Denmark are doubling their numbers in the NATO force in Estonia - it's still at a very low level.

But it looks like many countries are taking it seriously and it is prompting a continent-wide re-assessment. Which I think can only be a good thing - if it could be coordinated I think that would make sense. But I suspect the way that way happen is through those minilateral relations/existing deployments and specialities.

The big unknown is Germany because they're a large, rich country and spending more money is good but it'll be interesting to see how and where they prioritise that spend. I think until German strategy is clear it's going to be a bit difficult for other countries to coordinate - in relation to each other - because there'll be a big hole that could be anything.

[Berkut]

No shit. We need to start being willing to get a little dirty in response to others doing the same.

Would be a shame if Russia had unfortunately seriously underestimated both Ukrainian drone numbers and trained operators. Ukrainian for a week could become a thing.

Well, as I mentioned before....when it comes to plausible deniability, who can say where a particular drone is controlled from?

[Berkut]

One question I've not seen addressed is why Putin waited until now to pull this move. Why not do it when Trump was still president? There is no way the blowback would have been as damaging to Russia if Trump was still around to screw up US diplomacy.

The Russian army was not ready, is one explanation I've seen.

Of course, it doesn't appear to be ready now, so take that with a grain of salt....

[Admiral Yi]

Speaking of Ireland and such, I'm not sure a proclaimed policy of neutrality is morally defensible.

[The Minsky Moment]

One question I've not seen addressed is why Putin waited until now to pull this move. Why not do it when Trump was still president? There is no way the blowback would have been as damaging to Russia if Trump was still around to screw up US diplomacy.

The hope was that Trump would do his work for him in terms of undermining Ukranian sovereignty, which almost worked.