Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[crazy canuck]

Ukrainians claim to have killed a fourth Russian general. Man they go through them fast.

They're doing a pretty job, all told. Here's what I found on AP:

Maj. General Oleg Mityaev died Tuesday during the storming of Mariupol, said Ukrainian Interior Ministry adviser Anton Gerashchenko, who published a photo on Telegram of what he said was the dead officer.

Mityaev, 46, commanded the 150th motorized rifle division and had fought in Syria, Gerashchenko said.

Four lost so far. That is a lot of Generals to lose in so short a time. I wonder how it's happening? Doesn't seem tit would be normal combat losses, such as to artillery, and even if they're near the front it seems unusual to lose so many in a short time.

Russian generals are like Russian tanks.

[viper37]

So there's nothing stopping a non-NATO Ukraine from having NATO troops stationed there and having defensive alliances with NATO countries. I mean, I assume any deal between Ukraine and Russia won't be worded as sloppily as "NATO membership is not allowed", but then lower quality decisions have been made by Putin recently.

The problem is the fear Russia would consider this an involvement in their war/internal affairs and retaliate with WMDs.  Or escalate somewhere to the vicinity of WWIII.  Which is coming anyway, in a few years.

[PJL]

Ukrainians claim to have killed a fourth Russian general. Man they go through them fast.

They're doing a pretty job, all told. Here's what I found on AP:

Maj. General Oleg Mityaev died Tuesday during the storming of Mariupol, said Ukrainian Interior Ministry adviser Anton Gerashchenko, who published a photo on Telegram of what he said was the dead officer.

Mityaev, 46, commanded the 150th motorized rifle division and had fought in Syria, Gerashchenko said.

Four lost so far. That is a lot of Generals to lose in so short a time. I wonder how it's happening? Doesn't seem tit would be normal combat losses, such as to artillery, and even if they're near the front it seems unusual to lose so many in a short time.

Russian generals are like Russian tanks.

They haven't been lost, they've been purged due to their incompetence....

[viper37]

Press mute before clicking on the link, annoying music.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1503755688174047234?s=20&t=IrTki6KrbJwMqTvHJ1u0dQ

Who on earth is training these guys? Russian tank, seemingly by itself, driving down a country road. No support. Gets blown up immediately, AT or mine.

I know you guys said they see their armor as replaceable but jesus christ. The loss of life and investment is staggering. I keep seeing UA soldiers saying "thank God the Russians are so stupid, it makes the fight more even". Now I believe it.

Interesting use of Sabaton music, a band that played in occupied Crimea in 2015 at a show organized by pro-Putin biker gang Night Wolves.

Did you really have to tell me that?  Now, I'll have to revise my plans to see them next fall in Montreal. Thanks.     Ignorance is bliss, you know.

[The Brain]

Press mute before clicking on the link, annoying music.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1503755688174047234?s=20&t=IrTki6KrbJwMqTvHJ1u0dQ

Who on earth is training these guys? Russian tank, seemingly by itself, driving down a country road. No support. Gets blown up immediately, AT or mine.

I know you guys said they see their armor as replaceable but jesus christ. The loss of life and investment is staggering. I keep seeing UA soldiers saying "thank God the Russians are so stupid, it makes the fight more even". Now I believe it.

Interesting use of Sabaton music, a band that played in occupied Crimea in 2015 at a show organized by pro-Putin biker gang Night Wolves.

Did you really have to tell me that?  Now, I'll have to revise my plans to see them next fall in Montreal. Thanks.    Ignorance is bliss, you know.

I'm sorry. I was a bit annoyed too when I found out. Even if all their songs sound exactly the same the occasional Sabaton song used to be a guilty pleasure of mine. You could argue that this info only made it guiltier, but I have limits.

[The Brain]

Ukrainians claim to have killed a fourth Russian general. Man they go through them fast.

They're doing a pretty job, all told. Here's what I found on AP:

Maj. General Oleg Mityaev died Tuesday during the storming of Mariupol, said Ukrainian Interior Ministry adviser Anton Gerashchenko, who published a photo on Telegram of what he said was the dead officer.

Mityaev, 46, commanded the 150th motorized rifle division and had fought in Syria, Gerashchenko said.

Four lost so far. That is a lot of Generals to lose in so short a time. I wonder how it's happening? Doesn't seem tit would be normal combat losses, such as to artillery, and even if they're near the front it seems unusual to lose so many in a short time.

Russian generals are like Russian tanks.

I think the generals have more gas.

[Barrister]

So discussions around a set of proposals that would see

-Russian forces withdraw to pre-war
-Ukraine declares neutrality
-security guarantees by US, UK and Turkey
-Ukraine accepts limits on military size
-Russian language rights enshrined in the Ukrainian constitution

So biggest questions here is the limits on military size - I would think that would be a non-starter for Ukraine after this.

Also neutrality - would that remove the chance of EU membership?  After all they used the examples of Austria and Sweden - both EU members.  And even Switzerland is heavily integrated into the EU while not being a member themselves.

https://www.ft.com/content/7b341e46-d375-4817-be67-802b7fa77ef1

[OttoVonBismarck]

Any sign of Russia being willing to negotiate is a good one, still not sure the feasibility of a deal like that or if Russia is really serious yet, obviously time will tell.

I think a few things from that proposal would largely be fine and should be acceptable to Ukraine:

- Russian forces withdrawing to pre-war borders seems fine--there is no reason settlement of Crimea/Donbas/Luhansk has to be part of a peace deal, they could dispute those further down the road (hopefully without a war)
- Ukraine declares neutrality - Depending on the specific elements, I think this is also fine. Ukraine is not being given NATO membership, nor is it likely to secure a bilateral military alliance with any major country like the United States. Promising to not seek to alter this status quo, in exchange for ending Russia's incursion isn't a terrible deal
- Russian language rights - this would likely play well to the Russian public and is a fairly pain free Ukrainian concession

Now the two big sticking points are arguably the most important ones:

- Limit on Ukrainian military size, foreign bases, and foreign weapons

The limit on foreign bases..is fine, Ukrainian law already prohibits that, and I doubt the U.S. or etc was seriously ever going to put any meaningful base presence inside Ukraine. But the limit on the size of Ukraine's weapons and basically forbidding them buying any foreign (i.e. non-Russian) weapons, leaves Ukraine really vulnerable going forward depending on the specifics of the deal. Any peace deal honestly needs to leave things such that the West can massively invest in and bulk up Ukraine's defense capacity so that the next time Russia tries this the results will look even worse.

However all that being said, if the NEXT criteria is met, then the size of Ukraine's military isn't that important:

- Security guarantees by US, UK and Turkey

Realistically if Russia acquiesced to this then the limits on Ukraine's military size wouldn't much matter--since war with Ukraine would mean war with a good portion of NATO's military might. The problem is I can't imagine Russia would agree to this unless it was in the form of a toothless statement ala the 1994 agreement, not one that would likely be adhered to--I can only guess Turkey is involved because there is a perception Russia likes to maintain somewhat good relations with Turkey so would be less inclined to violate it if they were on the hook too.

If this means a REAL security guarantee, the problems are many--one I doubt Russia would agree, and two I doubt the US/UK will agree to a bilateral security guarantee of a country Russia has invaded twice in the last decade.

[The Minsky Moment]

Russia's GDP is equal to that of Brazil, per capita is it lower than Iran and Romania. It exports less by value than Spain, Belgium, or Mexico. 

If Russia has a claim to great power status - i.e. to consideration above and beyond what I would consider objectively peer nations such as Mexico and Brazil - it is based on raw military might. The significance of the Ukranian campaign, regardless of outcome at this point, is that it has revealed fatal weaknesses and shortcomings in this supposedly differentiating factor.  Whatever Putin does now, the damage is done: either cut his losses and effectively admit the weakness of Russian conventional military arm, or double down in the hope of improved future outcomes, which even if they magically materialize, would lead to severe degredation of that military instrument.

The reality is that at this point, Russia's claim to great power status is based entirely on its nuclear arsenal; in that sense, Putin's early recourse to the rhetoric of nuclear blackmail is understandable and terrifying.

[The Brain]

It's important that the West keeps punishing the Russian economy, if possible keeping it at negative growth for many years, driving it further into Third World status. It is extremely unlikely that any post-Putin Russia won't be an aggressive hellhole, which needs to be caged off and left to stew in its own suck.

[viper37]

I believe a good chunk of Ukraine was part of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth (or Crown of ?) at this time.  I guess the local population alternated with fighting with Russia, fighting against Russia and neutrality (not in any specific order).  Anyway, the Brain has got to know this.  Let's just wait for him.

[Admiral Yi]

It's important that the West keeps punishing the Russian economy, if possible keeping it at negative growth for many years, driving it further into Third World status. It is extremely unlikely that any post-Putin Russia won't be an aggressive hellhole, which needs to be caged off and left to stew in its own suck.

If Ukraine agrees to some sort of peace with Russia, what then is the end game for sanctions?  Keep them in place until Putin resigns?  Drop them immediately?

There is a chance of the West and Ukraine having diverging preferences.

[celedhring]

It's important that the West keeps punishing the Russian economy, if possible keeping it at negative growth for many years, driving it further into Third World status. It is extremely unlikely that any post-Putin Russia won't be an aggressive hellhole, which needs to be caged off and left to stew in its own suck.

If Ukraine agrees to some sort of peace with Russia, what then is the end game for sanctions?  Keep them in place until Putin resigns?  Drop them immediately?

There is a chance of the West and Ukraine having diverging preferences.

Personally, I'm more than willing to drop some of the more general economic sanctions if it helps getting a good deal for Ukraine.

However, I'd keep stuff like targeted sanctions on their defence industry, and all the agreed policy changes (i.e. energy independence) and better policing of Russia's dirty money in the West.

Oligarchs can fuck off, too, and anybody responsible for war crimes (that includes Putin).

[Barrister]

I believe a good chunk of Ukraine was part of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth (or Crown of ?) at this time.  I guess the local population alternated with fighting with Russia, fighting against Russia and neutrality (not in any specific order).  Anyway, the Brain has got to know this.  Let's just wait for him.

Mid 1600s, there was a large cossack uprising in modern-day Ukraine in the territory of,yup you're right, the P-L Commonwealth.  The uprising was successful, leading to an independent cossack state.

The new state then was beset at various times by P-L and the Tatars.  So looking for more support, they agreed to becomes vassals of Muscovy.  There were apparently differences of opinion as to how strong this bond would be, with the czars expecting to fully incorporate the territory into Russia, and the cossacks expecting more of a loose vassalship.

This was of course one of the key turning points, and lets face it huge blunders, of Ukrainian history.

[The Brain]

It's important that the West keeps punishing the Russian economy, if possible keeping it at negative growth for many years, driving it further into Third World status. It is extremely unlikely that any post-Putin Russia won't be an aggressive hellhole, which needs to be caged off and left to stew in its own suck.

If Ukraine agrees to some sort of peace with Russia, what then is the end game for sanctions?  Keep them in place until Putin resigns?  Drop them immediately?

There is a chance of the West and Ukraine having diverging preferences.

I don't dare to hope, but I would certainly prefer if harsh sanctions are kept in effect as long as Putin is in power. According to Nuremberg/Tokyo Putin is a criminal who IMHO should be treated as an untouchable.

The West's sanctions are between the West and Russia. Ukraine is not a part.